Earlier today, Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet reported that some “clarity” is expected on the Erik Karlsson trade speculation by this upcoming weekend. It will end just over two months of heavy trade speculation, and all signs point to Karlsson heading East to join the Pittsburgh Penguins.
In other news from Pittsburgh this morning, even though it is never a positive for a player to get injured, strictly speaking financially, the Penguins will open up $6MM in cap space due to forward Jake Guentzel’s ankle surgery, landing him on LTIR to begin the regular season. Once Guentzel is put on LTIR at the beginning of the season, Pittsburgh will have just under $2.8MM in salary cap wiggle room.
Now, with any hypothetical Karlsson trade, a significant hurdle to jump will be how much the San Josh Sharks are willing to retain on his contract. It’s been reported multiple times that the Sharks seem willing to retain 30% of his contract, which would knock Karlsson’s salary down to $8MM over the next four seasons. Keeping this in mind, the Penguins would only need to send around $5.25MM back to the Sharks, if and only if they are not seeking any additional cap space.
The most obvious choice would be to move Jeff Petry’s $6.25MM contract back the other way to San Jose, but with a 15-team no-trade list included in his contract, it would be reasonable to assume the Sharks would be on that list, and the likelihood of Petry accepting a deal to San Jose would be slim. In fact, most of the contracts that the Penguins would want to remove from their roster, have very hefty no-movement clauses, complicating any potential trade in the near future.
However, there is one player who would meet the criteria and was even rumored to be headed toward a buyout in mid-June. That player would be Mikael Granlund, acquired from the Nashville Predators at last year’s trade deadline, and currently sporting a $5MM salary for the next two seasons. Throw in defenseman Jan Rutta and his $2.75MM, also creating an opening on the right-hand side of their blue line, and all of the salary intangibles are worked out.
In terms of which prospects and draft capital should be expected to head back to San Jose, let’s consider General Manager Mike Grier’s first high-profile trade, moving Timo Meier to the New Jersey Devils at last season’s trade deadline. In that deal, the Sharks acquired a salary filler in Andreas Johnsson, a young NHL-ready talent in Fabian Zetterlund, two prospects in Nikita Okhotyuk and Shakir Mukhamadullin, as well as a first and second-round pick.
Given this context, it would be reasonable to assume that Karlsson will command a similar package to Meier, and the Penguins should have the necessary parts to make this happen. The salary fillers are already worked out in Granlund and Rutta, and defenseman Ty Smith seems exactly the type of young NHL-ready talent the Sharks would be pursuing in a package like this. Not too long ago, Smith was projected as one of the better prospects in New Jersey’s system, but ever since coming over in a trade to Pittsburgh, the Penguins just have not been able to give him the amount of ice time that is conducive with his growth.
For prospects, it is going to be very difficult for San Jose to poach away any of Brayden Yager, Owen Pickering, or Joel Blomqvist from the Penguins farm system, but there is another talent that should suffice. Forward Tristan Broz as well as forward Valtteri Puustinen seem like the best choices outside of those top three. Broz is a second-round pick of the Penguins from the 2021 NHL Draft, and he recently wrapped up a 28-point campaign with the University of Denver in the NCAA. Puustinen, on the other hand, is a bit closer to NHL-ready than Broz, scoring 59 points in 72 games in the AHL as a 24-year-old.
Pittsburgh is also in possession of most of its draft picks for the next several seasons, and given the Sharks’ projected draft capital for the foreseeable future, might target top picks during the 2025 or 2026 NHL Draft. In all realism, the Sharks will likely want Pittsburgh’s 2025 first-round pick, as well as a conditional second-round pick in 2026, crafting those conditions in a way where the pick could be upgraded to a first.
And there you have it. The hypothetical trade in its entirety would be the Penguins acquiring Karlsson (30% retained), while the Sharks would acquire, Granlund, Rutta, Smith, Broz, Puustinen, a first-round pick in 2025, as well as a conditional second-round pick in 2026. In any manner, we should know in a few short days what the Karlsson trade package will look like in its entirety.
I honestly can’t see San Jose taking that deal. I doubt they want both Granlund & Ruuta and Smith is being overvalued here. Yes, he had a good rookie season, but I watched him in the AHL last season and he frankly wasn’t that good. He isn’t anywhere near a top 4 d-man in the NHL. I think it takes P.O. Joseph to get a deal done. If he’s in the deal, maybe the Sharks will take both Granlund & Ruuta, even though they have little use for either one of them (Granlund is an expensive 3rd line center & Ruutta doesn’t even crack their lineup). Otherwise, Karlsson may begin the season in San Jose
I think it’s a gross overpay by Pittsburgh. At this point who are they bidding against? His contract is awful and having to retain $ is a cost of doing business
Not really an overpay by Pittsburgh. Joseph is the only player with any real value. The Pens don’t want to keep Granlund as it is & Rutta is a 6-7 d-man who can easily be replaced. The Sharks likely don’t want either one of those guys as it is. Broz isn’t a can’t miss prospect and has flaws in his game. Puustinen has offensive skill, but needs to improve his two-way game. The Pens aren’t giving up a ton
Lets be realistic the sharks are trying to rebuild, Grier should be wanting to rebuild the fact that he can get a couple good assets and a pick should be enough(although retaining some salary)…..they aren’t going to compete with the top teams skill wise no matter what so eat it now and the sharks could be deadly in 4 years as long as he does his job properly that’s how he ll really prove himself….you have a team taking 8-9 million off your cap in 2 years just take it and make your team better when it counts
What good assets are they getting really? Granlund & Rutta aren’t good assets. Smith wasn’t good at all last season in the AHL. Broz is flawed & Puustinen doesn’t play well in his own end. The draft picks are the only really good assets in the deal mentioned in the article.
They’re not going to get good assets when they’re only retaining 30%. They’re trying to get out of that contract. If they wanted to get a good return they would retain more and half the league would be interested. The sharks don’t really have any other options. They want the contract gone and Karlsson wants out. Penguins are the only team that want to make a deal.
It’s an idiotic deal for the Penguins to make, but as a pure hockey trade it’s not an overpay, as long as Karlsson stays healthy; the guy did, after all, have a superstar season last year.
Is the Timo Meier trade really an accurate comparison? A lot of teams wanted Meier (30+ goal scorer in his prime) but Karlsson has spent years being a punchline. I know the Pens seem enamored with the guy, but he’s not worth a Meier haul.
I say: Granlund, PO Joseph, ’25 1st, ’24 2nd and Puustinen for Karlsson at $8M AAV
If we’re including a first, they better be retaining more than 30%. And I would prefer to keep joseph, if possible. If Petry won’t go there, we’ll have an Insane amount of space tied up on offensive RD. We almost wouldn’t need Ty smiths skill set anymore. What about the sharks taking desmith? They seem to have the need, and we have the surplus
Is DeSmith really an upgrade over Kahkonen & Blackwood? Probably not.
He is an upgrade over them, especially Blackwood. And he makes a million less, and half a mil less, respectively. I’m not saying desmith is an elite 1A, but he improves their goaltending situation. They have a 1B and an ahl player right now.
Granlund gets bought out. It’s the rare buyout that’s not much of a cap issue.
Smith (hopefully not Joseph), Petry, a lottery protected first, a second and a Broz like prospect to SJ. The Sharks then move Petry to a team not on his list (assuming he waives for SJ to get to a team on his list or else it has to get messier with multiple trades) paying whatever sweetener is required while pocketing the first round pick.
Moving Petry will likely cost as much or more than acquiring Karlsson.
Petry has already said he’s not going to San Jose. The Pens will have to most likely give Chicago a 1st round to take him. With Guentzel going on LTIR they have the room to figure out the Petry issue a couple months down the road.
“The Sharks then move Petry to a team not on his list (assuming he waives for SJ to get to a team on his list or else it has to get messier with multiple trades) paying whatever sweetener is required while pocketing the first round pick.”
Noted.
Honestly I wish they’d just trade their whole lot of next years picks to rid themselves of Granny, Rutta, DeSmith, and Petry. Retain no salary. No buyouts. Add in sweeteners like Ty Smith as necessary.
If I’m Dubas I’m sacrificing a draft class to be rid of Hextall’s stench all at once, right up front.
The better they finish, the lower the picks will be. Eat the whole apple at once. Throw in a future pick or two if necessary. Wait for Carter to get a hangnail and LTIR him.
Bob’s your Uncle, Betty’s your aunt, clear the dead weight, end of rant.
Why should the onus be on the to Sharks give up more assets to get rid of Petry? If Pittsburgh wants Karlsson, and wants to get rid of Petry, its kind of Pittsburgh to figure that out. The Sharks are not going to try and make some concessions to Petry just to make the money simple and then give up assets just to get rid of him.
Yeah it makes no sense. Petry would have to waive his NTC to agree to go West on the good faith that they’d flip him back East. Not happening.
They’d just get a third team involved. If the Sharks wanted to retain a portion of Petry’s salary to increase their return (from either PIT or the team acquiring a more reasonably priced Petry), then I believe they can. As though they had traded for him and then flipped him.
The price for acquiring Karlsson without taking back a bad deal doesn’t include a first round pick. Not with only serious one team bidding.
If the Sharks want that good an asset, they take that package and either flip Broz and the later picks or move some of their own assets to move Petry, who agrees to it because his destination is agreed to ahead of time as part of the 3 team deal.
Let’s say it takes Broz and the second for a team like CHI to take Petry, so be it. The Sharks get Smith and a first round pick and there isn’t a team in the league that is going to offer more than that.
Pens are the only team in the league that can absorb his contract without a concern for the final years, which is why they are the only real suitor, which is why the return will be low.
As I said, it will cost as much or more to move Petry as it will to get EK.
Because the player wants to be traded and and there’s only one team bidding. And the sharks signed him to a massive contract and are now dealing with the repercussions of that move. The trade value of EK is only going to decline with each passing year.
Petry for Chiarot, straight up!
Testing
Yeah karlson 33 with a lot of wear and tear and you are paying for age 33-36. Meier just entering prime.
Sorry, but this trade makes zero Sense. Guentzel will only be on LTIR until about November. You can’t figure out their cap situation in season. There is essentially no scenario that works with petry still on this team.
Couture 50 percent retained to Boston
Debrusk and 50 percent retained karlson to pens
Granlund, rutta to sjs with all the picks.
Think a few people are in dreamland here making out like you trade away the only player to get 100 points on D in 30 years for the sake of cap clearing lol. The retained salary is the cost of the deal for SJS. Then you are trading away a reigning Norris 100 point dman on an 8 mill contract. Now start thinking of the return instead of thinking about the 11.5m which is a non-issue.
I’ll give you a hint. It isn’t less than a 1st round pick as 66numberofthebest has said above pmsl. Lemme guess, pens fan? Probably takes a minimum of a 1st, 2nd and prospect from there.
Taking either of Petry or Granlund is not simple cap offset either, those stop Pitts using a buyout or big sweetener in a trade so have huge value. It’s not at all similar to the Andreas Johnson part of the Meier deal where NJD just had his $ buried.
I think the original proposal is not very attractive. I don’t know the prospects outside Smith but if he is the best one there, they aren’t good. Besides, SJS got 2 good D prospects last year for Meier, now they need some cornerpiece forwards.
Brent Burns was on a better contract and the Sharks gave him away for free.
The 100 point season is the ONLY reason the Sharks can move EK at all. Even after it, there is only one team seriously attempting to acquire him. What happens if he starts slow or gets hurt? Grier won’t risk it.
If a first round pick is in the deal, its because the Sharks are eating salary or taking a bad contract or both, not because it is needed to land Karlsson. Maybe it will end up costing more than I think it should or want, but I promise each and every Sharks fan will be disappointed by the return.
Are there any good forwards 21 or under in the pens system? If not, it’ll take a 1st plus.