PHR Mailbag: Flames, Jets, Arenas, Canadiens, Smith, Trade Options, Atlantic Division

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include what’s next for Calgary and Winnipeg, Ty Smith’s situation in Pittsburgh, Atlantic Division predictions, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in our last two mailbag pieces.

Grocery Stick: What can we expect from the Flames and the Jets? Both teams have players who want out but apart from Dubois to the Kings, we haven’t seen anything so far.

Calgary hasn’t given up on re-signing Elias Lindholm yet and by all accounts, it doesn’t appear he’s 100% sure he wants to leave.  Until he says a final no to the Flames, I think he stays put.  I’m a bit surprised that Noah Hanifin is still around as it sounds like his desire to leave is a little more concrete.  However, the acquiring teams are going to want to try to extend him as well, adding another wrinkle to discussions.  I think there’s a decent shot he goes this summer but it might need to wait until Erik Karlsson’s situation is sorted out first.

Mikael Backlund is the other player of some note and he, too, has balked at an extension thus far.  However, he recently raised the possibility of an in-season signing depending on how things are going.  That gives GM Craig Conroy some runway to work with.  I expect his situation to go unresolved heading into the season and they’ll re-assess closer to the trade deadline.  I suspect they’re still open to moving Daniel Vladar although there aren’t many viable trade options for him left.  Calgary has a path to a cap-compliant roster with what they have now so they don’t have to necessarily do anything else before the season starts.

For Winnipeg, unless Connor Hellebuyck’s reported contract ask comes down from the $9MM range, I don’t think his trade market is going to be good enough for the Jets to get enough of a return to justify moving him.  They’re not giving up on chasing a playoff spot and hanging in the mix is a lot easier with Hellebuyck than without.  Starting the season with him and looking to move him closer to the deadline has its risks (an injury or buyers not needing a starting goalie) but I think it’s a very realistic option that GM Kevin Cheveldayoff is considering.

As for Mark Scheifele, I’ve flip-flopped on this answer all summer.  Going back to the point about Winnipeg wanting to push for a playoff spot, I could see them keeping him to start and hoping that a hot start might convince him to extend.  I don’t think there are a lot of viable landing spots for him in terms of getting him to fit into someone else’s cap picture.  Midseason, it’s generally easier to move money and the Jets might be willing to retain at that time, something that would be tougher for them to do now.  As of this moment, I think he stays to start the season.  By the time we run another mailbag, I might have flip-flopped again on this one.

jason830: Best and worst stadiums to see a hockey game?

I watch a lot of hockey but very seldom do I actually go to a game in person.  I’ve been to a grand total of one NHL game live and that was more than a decade ago.  I’m not the right one to answer this so let me turn this over to some of our other writers.

Josh Erickson: For the best, Vegas would get my vote by a mile. Incredible atmosphere, great sightlines, great fans, and reasonably priced food (at the time, it was during their inaugural season).  For the worst, my vote would easily go to the old Gila River Arena in Glendale.

Josh Cybulski: Best: The atmosphere is insane and with over 21K fans in the building, you feel right on top of the players and your view of the ice is really something. It also helps that the pre and post-game spots are fantastic.  Worst: Ottawa – It is a run-down building without many frills that is surrounded by car dealerships and an outlet mall 30 minutes from downtown. To top it all off, getting in and out of the building is a nightmare, even on nights when only 12K fans show up. The wind whips across the wide-open field, meaning that when you leave the building after the game you have a half-mile walk in a blizzard to get to your frozen car. Not fun.

Ethan Hetu: I would add Arena Riga in Riga, Latvia to the best list. I had the chance to go there earlier this summer and see Latvia win some big games at the Worlds, and I’ll say there aren’t many places in hockey where I’ve witnessed fans as devoted and passionate as Latvians for their national team. It was packed full of people and even the outside area was filled with people who didn’t have tickets but still wanted to be in close proximity to the action, watching on big screens right outside. It felt as though an entire country was at a standstill, entirely focused on being there to help Latvia win.

The arena itself is pretty no-frills and not really up to the standard of what NHL teams play in (sort of to be expected) but in terms of atmosphere, you really can’t beat what goes on in Riga, they really do love hockey there.

Jasen: I think Max Lajoie would thrive in Montréal and be a nice supplement to Anderson as another big power forward. I’d love for my beloved Habitants to go get Lafreniere from the Rangers. Thoughts on the cost? Also, I think Ethan Bear would be a nice addition to our defense. Thoughts?

For the first question, I assume you’re asking about Max Comtois as Maxime Lajoie is a defenseman who now is in Toronto’s system.  In theory, he could be that player for the Canadiens but he wasn’t that player the last two seasons in Anaheim.  On top of that, Montreal already has a bit of a logjam up front.  Depending on how certain things shake out, he could make sense on a one-year flyer but as things stand, I don’t think there’s a roster fit for Comtois even though they could use a bit more size in an Atlantic Division that has bulked up over the summer.

As for Alexis Lafreniere, this came up before the draft.  I didn’t see a good fit then and frankly, there’s even less of one now.  The Rangers are in win-now mode but Montreal doesn’t really have a good low-cost veteran (the AAV is a big factor for New York which takes some of the pricier players off the table) to move.  Their best offer is a futures-based one which doesn’t do the Rangers any good right now.  I don’t think the Canadiens should be moving their unprotected 2024 first-round pick which takes the idea of an offer sheet in the $4.29MM to $6.435MM range off the table; they can’t do one for less as they don’t have their own second-rounder.  Lafreniere fits with what Montreal is trying to do in the sense of getting a young core of first-round talents up front and hoping for internal growth.  But unless New York can flip a futures-based package from the Canadiens elsewhere for a win-now piece, I don’t see a plausible trade scenario between the two sides.

As for Bear, he’s going to miss the start of the season after undergoing shoulder surgery so I don’t anticipate him signing anytime soon.  A 26-year-old right-shot defender should have some value to a team like the Canadiens but where does he fit in on their roster?  David Savard isn’t going anywhere next season (2024-25 might be a different story though).  They need to see where Justin Barron fits in long term so sending him to AHL Laval to make room for Bear is a step back development-wise.  They really like Johnathan Kovacevic on the third pairing so I don’t think he’s going either.  Chris Wideman is the probable seventh defender as things stand (at this point, I expect Arber Xhekaj to start in Laval where he can at least play over being the seventh defender) but signing someone like Bear to provide an upgrade on a healthy scratch doesn’t really move the needle.  And if they were to play Bear on his off-side, I don’t think he displaces any of their top three options there either.  If injuries strike early, then sure, Bear fits as a plug-and-play option on the third pairing once he’s healthy.  But right now, I don’t see where he fits in to justify signing him now.

WilfPaiement: I’m wondering why Ty Smith seems to be buried in the minors, and when he gets called up he does quite well.

Last season was certainly an odd one for Smith who went from being a regular with New Jersey to being a key part of the trade return for John Marino to spending most of the season with AHL Wilkes-Barre/Scranton.  Not all of this was due to factors within his control, however.

The Penguins were right up against the salary cap last season to the point where finding cap space for recalls was getting challenging.  Accordingly, someone making closer to the minimum became more appealing.  That worked in the favor of a veteran like Mark Friedman who made close to $100K less than Smith, who had the added ‘benefit’ of being waiver-exempt.  When you’re trying to bank cap space, cheaper recalls are more preferable so having Friedman come up allowed them to save money and keep Smith playing big minutes in the AHL.

This wasn’t the only reason, however.  After two full NHL campaigns, Smith was sent down to dominate and he didn’t quite do that.  He was above-average on the farm, no doubt, but he also didn’t become the go-to number one I think they were hoping he would.  And in his limited action with Pittsburgh, you’re right, he didn’t fare all that poorly although he benefitted from some sheltered matchups when he was in there.

The good news for Smith is that he’s now waiver-eligible.  It stands to reason that the Penguins aren’t going to risk waiving him to send him back to Wilkes-Barre/Scranton so his days of being buried in the minors should be over.  Now, it’s going to be a matter of cracking their regular lineup, something that should completely be in his hands.

Schwa: What big name(s) do you think is most likely to move next? Are teams gambling they’ll get better offers after big UFA names sign or even at the trade deadline?  Who moves versus who stays?

The obvious one seems to be Karlsson as it feels like a matter of when, not if he’s moved.  He has made it known that he wants to move on from San Jose so I could see that one getting done this summer and perhaps putting a short-term end to the lack of activity league-wide as there should be a domino effect from that move.

The other big name I think could move sooner than later is Hanifin in Calgary.  By all accounts, it appears that he has informed the Flames that he won’t extend with them and while he plays the opposite side as Karlsson, I suspect some teams will circle back to him if they don’t land the reigning Norris Trophy winner.  I wouldn’t rule out him starting the season with them but it wouldn’t surprise me to see him on the move in the coming weeks.  If you have Carolina’s Brett Pesce as a big-name player, he’s in the same category as well, especially depending on if they wind up with Karlsson; if they get him, they can’t afford Pesce both short-term and long-term.

At this point, I’m expecting most of the bigger names to move in-season.  As I noted earlier, there isn’t a strong market for Hellebuyck and with Winnipeg hoping they can stay in the playoff mix, I think he starts with them.  Scheifele seems likelier to start with the Jets as well.  Calgary hasn’t given up on keeping Lindholm so until he gives a firm no, I expect he’ll stick around too.  We’ve seen Evgeny Kuznetsov in trade speculation since his trade request but he needs to get off to a good start to boost his value to the point where Washington might get good value for him.

There should be some activity on the trade front to come but a lot of it will drag out into the season.  It might not necessarily be a case of teams thinking that they can get a better return at that time but rather that they haven’t given up on keeping that player around long-term although some will certainly be hoping that a good start will help them up the asking price if it comes to it.

dragonfan96: Will the Red Wings finally make the playoffs this next season?

Nha Trang: Could be just about any team at this point — and rosters are far from settled — but who makes the playoffs out of the Atlantic this coming season?

Let’s put these ones together.  Detroit has gotten better this summer but they had a long way to go to get to playoff-caliber.  Their goaltending isn’t any better and Shayne Gostisbehere and Justin Holl aren’t drastically changing their fortunes on the back end so I think the struggles there will continue.  Alex DeBrincat helps as will J.T. Compher but I don’t know if their offense is going to be strong enough yet, especially if they wind up having some difficulty keeping the puck out of their net again.  The Red Wings are certainly better than they were at the end of last season but I still have them on the outside looking in.

As for the rest of the division, Toronto is basically a lock to make it.  I think Tampa Bay is a bit more vulnerable than they have been but while it wouldn’t shock me if they miss, I think they still get in.  I have Buffalo making it this time around so that’s the top three.  If it winds up being one Wild Card team from each division, Florida would be my pick right now, leaving Detroit, Boston, and Ottawa just missing out and Montreal rounding up the rear.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.