This year’s free agent market was a tough one to gauge for teams and players alike. Another year of a tight salary cap situation for most teams, along with a relatively weak class of UFAs, made for some interesting decisions. Take gritty winger, Tyler Bertuzzi, for example. He didn’t get far into extension discussions with the cap-strapped Boston Bruins because he wanted a long-term deal but signed a one-year pact with the Toronto Maple Leafs just a few days into free agency.
But perhaps no player misread the market more than Vladimir Tarasenko, leading to the two-time All-Star being available on the market over two weeks into free agency. While he was reportedly close to a deal with the Carolina Hurricanes earlier in the month, he changed his representation less than a week after July 1, restarting the clock on all pending negotiations. After a bit of a down season, scoring just 18 goals in 69 games split between the St. Louis Blues and New York Rangers, the 31-year-old likely didn’t get any offers reflecting the level of commitment he was expecting.
Why teams wouldn’t want to take a longer-term gamble on the 2019 Stanley Cup champion is understandable. Shoulder injuries limited him to 34 games combined in the 2019-20 and 2020-21 seasons. While a return to form in 2021-22 (34 goals and 82 points in 75 games) revitalized his stock, a tough season for him (and the Blues) last year lowered it again, and his post-deadline stint with the Rangers wasn’t at his previous elite goal-scoring level, either.
Still, he is a six-time 30-goal scorer and brings a winning pedigree. He’s worth a spot in almost any team’s top six, although slightly sheltered minutes wouldn’t hurt. With Patrick Kane, the other marquee winger still on the market, not expected to sign until closer to the start of next season, Tarasenko is the best player available for teams looking to add a forward.
Stats
2022-23: 69 GP, 18-32-50, -14 rating, 8 PIMs, 169 shots on goal, 45.7% CF, 16:48 ATOI
Career: 675 GP, 270-304-574, +61 rating, 185 PIMs, 2,124 shots on goal, 52.5% CF, 17:27 ATOI
Potential Suitors
At his age, the likelihood of Tarasenko earning a long-term pact after betting on himself this season is small. Knowing he isn’t getting the compensation he initially set out to receive this summer, signing somewhere that gives him a chance to win a second Stanley Cup will likely be at the top of his mind.
The Hurricanes still give him the best shot of doing just that. Whether it can financially come to fruition, though, is another question. Carolina’s already backed out of one widely-reported transaction this summer, forcing the Philadelphia Flyers to go the buyout route with defenseman Anthony DeAngelo instead of re-acquiring him at half-price. The team is reportedly in discussions with the San Jose Sharks about acquiring reigning Norris Trophy winner Erik Karlsson, and top-four shutdown defender Brett Pesce remains without a contract extension. There are many moving parts still to come with Carolina, leaving a lot of uncertainty about their ability to fit in another UFA signing under the salary cap after signing Michael Bunting and Dmitry Orlov earlier in the month. Still, Tarasenko would add to what’s already one of the most terrifyingly deep forward groups in the league and, if healthy, could provide the sniper element sorely missing from their recent string of playoff runs.
Another team connected to Tarasenko is the Ottawa Senators, who have an Alex DeBrincat-sized hole in their top six after trading the young winger to the Detroit Red Wings. There are similar financial holdups there, though, as CapFriendly lists them with roughly $5MM in projected space for next season while still needing a new contract for center Shane Pinto. Receiving Dominik Kubalik in return from Detroit gives Ottawa a solid secondary scoring option. Still, he’s been quite streaky throughout his brief NHL career, and Tarasenko provides a high-end, veteran backup option if Kubalik doesn’t pan out in Canada’s capital. Ottawa is a team hungry to make their postseason appearance in six years, and adding Tarasenko could push them right back into the conversation of playoff hopefuls in the Atlantic Division.
The New York Rangers would also love to have Tarasenko back in the fold as a more experienced, higher-ceiling scoring option than some of their other depth names, but they’re in a more dire financial situation than both Carolina and Ottawa. Finding a way to move out or reduce Barclay Goodrow’s cap hit ($3.64MM through 2026-27) could open up some options for them, though.
Projected Contract
Unfortunately for Tarasenko, playing the waiting game has likely cost him a lot of cash in a tight market. Don’t expect him to sign a deal much longer than three seasons when he does sign, and it could very well come in under the $5MM mark per season, given the lack of financial flexibility available among contenders.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Tarasenko didn’t misread the FA market, He got really bad direction from his greedy and now former agent.
I guess we can agree to disagree.
One can disagree with pretty much anything Wilf posts and you will be correct at nearly a 100% clip.
You are welcome!
Teams are hesitating on his asking price due to his injury history and downslope as of late. Can’t blame them. Firing his agent won’t solve the issue unless that individual is able to get Tarasenko to check down his expectations. A 1 yr $4-5M deal with someone like Ottawa may be the move he needs to make in order to get something solid to stand on when he hits the market again.
The Canes forward group is “terrifyingly deep”?
Slight hyperbole there. ;)
@Gbear – I just looked at CapFriendly, and came to the same conclusion.
@Mac – BTW, looks like Matt Larkin is as confused as I am about what Trotz is doing. A foggy window indeed!
link to dailyfaceoff.com
@Gbear – Man, that’s a great article! “…and several others with serious identity crises.” is in the first paragraph – just about the division. Skipping to the Cats’ section, “In his first few laps around the track as Predators GM, Barry Trotz has delivered one of the most befuddling off-seasons I can remember.” That really does say it all, doesn’t it? GMBT looks to be trying to change up the chemistry, of course, but until they gel, it might look like discombobulation. I think I’ll have to spend even more time on DF. After the requisite daily tech stuff is done, of course. ;)
@Mac – Here’s more for your Sunday reading. :)
link to dailyfaceoff.com
@Gbear – This is a great start on this one: “We now sort through the wreckage as Day 1 of 2023 NHL free agency winds down”. Although, I grimaced seeing Mr. Uncoachable with his Captain in the background, thinking out loud, “Put your arms down. That hit the crossbar and went out of play.” Then, when Larkin has “The Winners” right above the Ky-Yoots, it made me think we might need to give him the old roadside sobriety test. (We might also have to remind Kyle Ross of USA TODAY Sports to set the camera to F8 or F16, not F1.2. Needs better depth-of-field.) I’m glad he reminded everyone of Babs’ past treatment of players, as in, don’t believe he’s changed until he proves he’s changed. “On the other hand: Compher’s defensive acumen is offset by, er, whatever Justin Holl was doing out there for the Maple Leafs” (If I didn’t know better, I’d have thought I wrote that!) “The Preds are likely the day’s most polarizing team.” (I do love writers who won’t pull punches!) And, then we have Lou giving out “loyalty” contracts. One, to Pierre Engvall, of all people. During a Leafs replay I was listening to, the other day, Bonesy laughs about a badly made clearing pass that hit Engvall in the back of the helmet. Ralphie says, “You can understand how Engvall’s helmet size does resemble a Volvo”. While I really like Scotty Mayfield’s snarl in his game, seven years is maybe 3-4 too many. Larkin’s comments on TOR are spot-on, too. They’ll be reminded of the trio of Gardiner-Barrie-Holl when Klank-berg hoses his own team over.
Thanks for brightening up the old Sunday afternoon. Now I don’t have time to clean the gutters. Damn… :(
@Mac – Gotta give the ‘Yotes credit for actually bringing in the players they did. Can’t be because of the facilities!
I have this image of Poile changing from the “just make the playoffs” horse to the “burn down the barn” horse, only to have Trotz look at the “just make the playoffs” horse and try to hop back on in the middle of the stream. :D
@Gbear – I hope GMBT realizes that Connor Bedard has already been drafted. Best for him to salvage the barn and rebuild it. Maybe Lee Majors can loan him about $6MM or so for the job. ;) “We have the technology. We can build the world’s first bionic team!”
Bill Guerin said it best, Player agents think the cap went up 10 million not 1 million. Do your homework dopehockey!
Wilf the 2022-23 NHL Salary Cap was $82,500,000 ,this year was increased $1 bringing to $83,500,000 , if your comment that it went up $10 it would be $92 Million, it wasn’t , check your homework , I did , here is what I found on NHL Salary Cap with all due respect , quit misleading people whom know more hockey than you do.
link to capfriendly.com
@G – I think @Wilf was trying to convey that Bill Guerin said that some players’ agents acted like the cap was going up $10MM, when it, of course, didn’t really budge (again).
@WIlf – that’s how I read your comment. Let me know if it isn’t what you had in mind.
Well due to technical issues with cell tower(Straight Line Winds 84mph) , I didn’t see that story in recent months as I honestly missed alot and just now catching up on hockey news with multiple media sites. Thanks Mac !
@G – If not for your scenic avatar, that straight-line wind stuff sounds like you’re right across town from me, instead of TN! I get that junk every year, without fail. It’s torn a lot of my fence to pieces. Glad you survived and are back in the swing of things!
Tarasenko’s #’s kind of flatlined at the worst time…, the surgeries don’t help…
He’s getting signed for 2 years, max for waay lower than he wants..
1st World problems, bubby….