There has been trade speculation around Ducks goaltender John Gibson for several years now with that only intensifying following a trade request that was reported back in early June. His agency denied a report earlier this month which suggested he had informed the club he wouldn’t play for them again but it’s still believed he wouldn’t mind a change of scenery. However, most of the annual goalie shuffle is now complete and the veteran remains with Anaheim, at least for the time being.
The 29-year-old had posted a 3.99 GAA last season, leading the league in goals allowed (200) and losses (31) while putting up a .899 SV%. Over the last four seasons, Gibson’s best save percentage has been .904 after putting up four straight campaigns of .917 or better so it’s not as if this was a one-time dip. Of course, that also coincides with Anaheim entering a rebuild so at least some of the decline in performance could be attributed to that. It’s possible that in a better situation, he could rebound.
That said, it won’t be a cheap gamble to make. Gibson has four years left on his contract with a $6.4MM AAV. That will be difficult for most teams to fit in now; fewer than ten teams in the league have that much cap space and several of those are of the rebuilding variety. On top of that, the Ducks aren’t going to give their starter away either; there will be a fairly sizable price to pay in terms of assets to get his services. What teams might those be? Let’s look at some possible options, some admittedly more speculative than others.
New Jersey
The Devils have a tandem of Vitek Vanecek and Akira Schmid which, on the surface, isn’t all that bad. Vanecek had a career-low 2.45 GAA with a career-high .911 SV% last season in 52 games, perfectly reasonable numbers for a starter. Schmid, meanwhile, was even better in limited duty and even took over as the starter at one point in the playoffs.
That last point is why they’re on this list though. When it mattered most, Vanecek struggled and with a core group that’s clearly built to win now, a possible upgrade between the pipes could be the missing piece to the puzzle. A package that includes Vanecek would offset Gibson’s net added cost to no more than $3MM which would be affordable within their cap space, assuming they fill out their roster with low-salaried options. More importantly, he’d cost less moving forward on the cap than Connor Hellebuyck based on his asking price.
Winnipeg
While the Jets have moved out Pierre-Luc Dubois and bought out Blake Wheeler, that shouldn’t be construed as them heading for a rebuild. Look no further than the return they received for Dubois – one that had multiple roster pieces as they look to stay in the playoff mix. Moving Hellebuyck would open up a big hole to fill in goal and Gibson would be a logical one to turn to, assuming either Winnipeg isn’t on his 10-team no-trade list or he’d be willing to waive to go there.
One thing the Jets don’t have in this scenario is another netminder of some significance to flip the other way so their return would likely have to be more futures-based. Considering where Anaheim is in their rebuild cycle, that might even be preferable on their end. The Hellebuyck domino has to fall first for this to be an option though.
Buffalo
The Sabres have been speculatively linked to a veteran goaltender for a few months now. Craig Anderson has called it a career and Eric Comrie isn’t the solution as the starter either. Meanwhile, the team has high hopes for Devon Levi and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen but the pair have 54 career NHL appearances between them. There seems to be an expectation of Buffalo making a real playoff push in 2023-24 after really making it interesting in April before just coming up short so while there is an element of upside if Levi and Luukkonen do well, there is certainly some risk as well if they struggle.
Gibson could be a way of hedging that risk, giving Levi a veteran partner to work with and allow him to try to ease his way into a longer-term starting role. Luukkonen, meanwhile, could be an intriguing part of a swap for Anaheim to start a young tandem of their own alongside Lukas Dostal. Buffalo has enough cap space to take on Gibson’s contract outright but with pricey extensions a year off for Rasmus Dahlin and Owen Power, either seeking some retention or sending some sort of salary offset would be beneficial.
Edmonton
After signing Jack Campbell last summer with the hopes of finally finding themselves a legitimate starting goaltender, they find themselves in a familiar spot – still looking for that goalie. Campbell had his moments last season as did Stuart Skinner but neither are in a spot where they can be counted on as a sure-fire starter when it matters most. For a franchise that has two of the top players in the league in Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, their contention window is now. They improved the defense at the deadline so finally landing that reliable starter could be the final piece of the puzzle.
Cap space is at a premium for Edmonton, however, with most of their remaining cap room heading to RFAs Ryan McLeod and Evan Bouchard. To make a move work, they’d need to match money. That would mean Campbell and his $5MM AAV would almost certainly need to be part of the swap. The Oilers could ask Anaheim to retain enough on Gibson’s deal to get him down to that same $5MM price point although that will only increase the acquisition price. Fit-wise, Gibson would certainly be an intriguing addition but it would take some creativity to make it work.
Los Angeles
If you look at the Kings’ roster right now, there is one big question mark and that’s between the pipes. Pheonix Copley has been more of a third-stringer than a legitimate NHL option for most of his career and veteran Cam Talbot is coming off an injury-plagued campaign that saw him struggle when he was in the lineup. David Rittich is also in the mix but his track record isn’t the greatest either. Going cheap at that position has certainly given Los Angeles the flexibility to bolster their lineup but it’s not without its risks either.
To get Gibson (assuming he’s open to going to a long-term division rival), they’d be in a situation where they’d need to match money like Edmonton. A veteran on an expiring contract like Viktor Arvidsson or Matt Roy could help on that front while someone like Copley would need to be involved as well. But none of those players will be of much interest to the Ducks so they would need to find a futures-based package to add to those players to include to make it worth Anaheim’s while.
Columbus
This one is admittedly a bit off the board but things did not go well in goal for the Blue Jackets last season as Elvis Merzlikins certainly struggled which played a big role in Columbus plummeting down the standings. Their offseason activity so far has been geared toward shoring up the back end in the hopes that upgrades there will also help in goal and Mike Babcock is certainly not a rebuilding type of coach. There’s an internal expectation for big improvement so it wouldn’t be shocking to see them at least kick the tires.
Merzlikins is signed for four more years like Gibson is at $1MM less so if Anaheim was open to taking him back in a swap, the Blue Jackets can fit Gibson onto the books. They have a strong prospect pool that they could deal from, giving them an edge over some other teams who don’t have as deep of a group to work with when it comes to building a futures-based package.
Of course, it’s still quite possible that Gibson remains with the Ducks at the start of 2023-24 and they revisit the possibility of a trade in-season or next summer when teams will have more cap flexibility at their disposal. But if there is still mutual motivation to find a deal that works for both sides, there are at least a few teams that could be an option for the veteran netminder.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Cap information courtesy of CapFriendly.
Montreal for Gallagher, same term and 100k in cap difference, habs then trade 1 of there goalies and it frees up a forward spot
Blue jackets would be wild!
Gibson over the last 3 seasons has posted a GAA of over 3.00. Buffalo I hope continues to not engage in trade talks for Gibson. If you look at his stats the last 3 seasons only his contract fits the 1A goalie check list. Comrie had better overall stats than Gibson last season & makes $4.8mil less.
In all fairness, he’s had bad teams skating in front of him, similar to the situation in Buffalo. It’s hard to say how he’ll perform elsewhere.
The 1 goalie that makes better sense for Buffalo is Markstrom. If a goalie can’t post a GAA around a 3.00 even on a bad team then the fault lies with both the goalie & team. I actually looked up Gibson’s whole career stats.
Holy crap, that contract somehow gets worse and worse every time I look at it. He’s going to be a buyout or straight salary dump.
Good grief … I don’t know why so many people are invested in the fantasy that John Gibson is still a top goaltender, several years after he ceased to be one, and now that he’s a downright poor one. (The ongoing Oh-It-Was-A-Bad-Team argument doesn’t wash for save percentage, and a number of guys outperformed Gibson while playing for bad teams last year.)
So if I’m a GM looking to get a Top Goaltender, am I going to knock on Anaheim’s door, when they’re going to want a sizeable package?
Or am I going to knock on BOSTON’s door, where I can get the reigning Vezina winner, a guy who played excellently with a very bad Buffalo team, and played even better the last couple years in Boston? Someone a year younger than Gibson, making a million and a half less, and who doesn’t have four years left of potential mediocrity signed to a NTC?
Unless someone really does think that after Gibson’s last four mediocre years, there’s a better chance that he’ll have a fine comeback year than that after Ullmark’s last five sterling years, HE will.
People seem to be blaming The other players for Gibson. I watched some games and hilights. It did not look like he was giving it his full effort. Say what you want about Campbell/Comrie. They look like they are giving their best effort every game. Stand up guys not blaming teammates.
It makes no sense for any team to trade for Gibson because he has been awful for four years. Gibson will probably get bought out.