Offseason Checklist: Florida Panthers

The offseason is now fully underway after Vegas took home the Stanley Cup which means that it’s time to examine what each team will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Florida.

What an interesting year it was for the Panthers.  After winning the Presidents’ Trophy, the team moved two core pieces in Jonathan Huberdeau and MacKenzie Weegar to Calgary for Matthew Tkachuk, a swap that many felt would see them take a small step back to take a bigger step forward a little later on.  It played out that way early as they were out of the playoffs for long portions of the season.  However, they got into the final Wild Card spot and beat Boston, Toronto, and Carolina to come out of the East.  Now, GM Bill Zito has more cap flexibility than he had last summer to try to add to his roster but there are some question marks on how much he’ll be able to use which factors into in their checklist below.

Add Defensive Help

When fully healthy, Florida’s defense corps wasn’t the deepest to begin with.  Now, they’re set to possibly lose Radko Gudas and Marc Staal to free agency while Aaron Ekblad and Brandon Montour, their top two blueliners, played through serious injuries in the playoffs and might not be ready to start next season.  They already could have used a top-four blueliner.  Now, it’s more or less a necessity.

It’s also worth noting that the blueliner with the longest contract on their current roster is Ekblad.  His deal has just two years remaining.  Other than Josh Mahura, a depth defender, all of their current blueliners will be UFA-eligible when their existing contracts expire.  That’s a lot of potential turnover in a short period of time.

With that in mind, while some have wondered if Zito might be interested in short-term options due to the injuries, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to at least look to the higher end of the free agent market where the top options will get longer-term contracts.  Yes, those deals tend to be too long and a little too expensive but this is a franchise that doesn’t exactly have a lot of tradeable assets right now after going all-in in 2021-22.  A move like that would give them a short-term lift and ensure they’ll have at least one capable veteran in the fold for the long haul.

As things stand, Florida has roughly $10MM in cap room at their disposal, per CapFriendly.  They have to sign at least two blueliners (probably three) and a couple of forwards with that money but if the depth options are closer to the minimum, there’s enough room for an impact addition.  Yes, there could be LTIR money available in the short term but that money can’t really be spent externally as the Panthers would have to be cap-compliant once the injured players are ready to return.  Instead, any ‘savings’ there would go toward carrying a full roster at the start of the season.

Extension Talks

July 1st is the day that players entering the final year of their respective contracts are eligible to sign contract extensions.  Florida has several key regulars in that situation.  On the back end, Montour and Gustav Forsling are both set to hit the final year of their very team-friendly deals.  Up front, Sam Reinhart and Anthony Duclair are in the same spot.

Montour’s case is going to be a particularly fascinating one to follow.  For years, he had shown promise at times but hadn’t been able to consistently produce and as a result, he remained in more of a limited role.  This past season, that all changed.  Montour’s production exploded, going from a decent 37 points a year ago to a whopping 73.  He barely cracked the top 40 for scoring by a defenseman in 2021-22 and was fifth in 2022-23.  He’s on a bargain contract at $3.5MM and if they want to extend him now, it might take twice as much if not more to lock up the 29-year-old.  The shoulder injury could give Zito some pause but it wouldn’t be surprising to see them try to get something done this summer.

As for Forsling, he has certainly been one of the best waiver claims in recent memory, going from a Carolina castaway to a 23-minute per-game defender.  The 27-year-old had a breakout year in 2021-22 and put up very similar numbers this past season, showing that it wasn’t just a fluke.  He is now logging heavy minutes shorthanded, making him an all-around defender.  With his age and recent production, he, too, could more than double his current AAV of just under $2.7MM.

Up front, Reinhart’s second bridge contract has worked out well for both sides.  He has taken his production to a new level in Florida, even after taking a bit of a step back this season.  The 27-year-old has also shown that he can play down the middle which makes him much more valuable around the league with top-six centers being difficult to come by.  His current AAV is $6.5MM and it would likely take at least a couple million more than that (putting him a little below Matthew Tkachuk on the salary scale) to get him to commit to an early extension.

Then there’s Duclair.  The 27-year-old missed most of this past season as he worked his way back from a torn Achilles’ tendon and, unsurprisingly, he was a bit quiet when he returned before putting together a decent playoff showing with 11 points in 20 games.  He’s only a year removed from a breakout 31-goal campaign which should factor into negotiations as well.  Duclair intends to represent himself again in those discussions and with the long layoff, it’s reasonable to think they might agree to defer talks until later in the season to see how he fares after a full summer of recovery.

Not all of these players are going to sign extensions over the summer but it wouldn’t be surprising to see Zito get one or two of these locked up over the coming months.

Get Help For The Penalty Kill

The Panthers were one of the top teams at five-on-five this past season which is typically a good sign of how strong a team is.  However, the fact that they barely picked up the final Wild Card spot is in large part due to the fact that their penalty kill struggled considerably with a success rate of just under 76%, a few points below the league average.  In the playoffs, that number dipped even further to just 70.4%.  That’s an area that could certainly stand to be improved.

If Florida goes and gets an impact defenseman, that should help but adding some defensive acumen to their final couple of forwards would also help.  Eric Staal (a pending UFA) logged heavy minutes on the penalty kill this past season, a role he hadn’t typically played in his prime.  Eetu Luostarinen isn’t a premier defensive forward either; those two led all Florida forwards in shorthanded ATOI.  Filling out the depth chart with some shutdown options might take away a bit offensively but if it helps them kill enough penalties to balance out, it’ll be worth doing.

Depth Decisions

Alex Lyon more than served his purpose as a capable third-string goaltender who stepped in when Spencer Knight departed for the Player Assistance Program and even took over as the starter with Sergei Bobrovsky struggling at the time.  He may have done well enough to get a shot as a backup somewhere so this is a spot that will need to be filled.  A veteran depth goalie isn’t usually an important offseason add but with Bobrovsky’s inconsistency and Knight’s relative inexperience, determining and landing the top option on that market takes a higher level of importance.

Meanwhile, a decision needs to be made soon on the fate of center Colin White.  The 26-year-old had an okay year in a very limited role but still provided some value on a contract that was just $100K above the league minimum after being bought out by Ottawa.  Still not old enough to reach unrestricted free agency, Florida could tender him a qualifying offer to keep his rights.  However, doing so would give him arbitration eligibility and bring his previous production (including a 41-point year in 2018-19) into the picture.  That’s not ideal for the Panthers so they need to decide if they want to try to re-sign him before Friday’s tender deadline or if they want to cut bait and perhaps add a more defensive-oriented depth player into the mix.

These are two roles that can be filled quickly in free agency within the first couple of hours so Zito will need to have his plan in place to make sure he lands his targets (or gets White on another bargain contract).

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.