Free agency is less than a month away and teams are looking ahead to when it opens. There will be several impact players set to hit the open market in July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well. We continue our look around the NHL with an overview of the free agent situation for the Golden Knights.
Key Restricted Free Agents
F Nolan Patrick – Patrick missed the entire 2022-23 season as the former second overall pick has dealt with multiple injuries during his short career that date all the back to his junior hockey days. It was the second full season Patrick has missed as he also missed the 2019-20 season with a migraine disorder.
Patrick came over to Vegas from the Nashville Predators in a trade for Cody Glass back in July 2021 and has played just 25 games for them putting up two goals and five assists. It seems likely that Patrick will be non-tendered by the Golden Knights making him an unrestricted free agent. Should this happen it’s hard to predict what would be the next step for the 24-year-old Winnipeg native.
When healthy, Patrick was a very productive third line center who could play with some edge. But given the litany of health issues he has dealt with the past few seasons it could be possible that he elects to retire or to try and continue his career outside of the NHL. If he chooses to hang up his skates it would be a sad ending for a player who showed a lot of promise as a 19 and 20-year-old with the Philadelphia Flyers.
F Brett Howden – Howden’s regular season was a disappointment as he produced just six goals and seven assists in 54 games and spent most of the time buried in his own end. He was fortunate that during his time on the ice his goaltenders bailed he and his linemates out with an on-ice save percentage of 93.3%. His playoff performance however was a completely different story. Howden found his offensive game and was able to almost replicate his regular season numbers as he had five goals and five assists in 22 playoff games.
At this point in his career, it is hard to pin down what Howden is. His season was the tale of two different performances and its almost a microcosm of the 25-year-old’s career thus far. He’s shown glimpses of being an effective fourth line center, but he has also had stretches where he doesn’t look like he belongs in the league. Vegas will have a tough decision on their hands with Howden and may elect to bring him back short term once again. Last summer Howden signed a one-year deal for $1.5MM and I would expect something in the same ballpark again this summer.
Other RFAs: D Connor Corcoran, F Pavel Dorofeyev, F Maxim Marushev, D Brayden Pachal, G Jiri Patera
Key Unrestricted Free Agents
G Adin Hill – Hill had a wild journey to becoming the starting netminder for a Stanley Cup champion. He became an afterthought in San Jose last season and was dealt in August 2022 for a fourth-round pick in 2024. He then found himself caught up in a numbers game and was stuck behind Logan Thompson and eventually Laurent Brossoit. Hill went two full months without playing until he was called upon in the second round. He came in cold to help the Golden Knights dispatch of the Edmonton Oilers and from there it became his crease. Hill went on to post an 11-4 record in the playoffs with a .932 save percentage and a 2.17 goals-against average.
His playoff numbers this year were dominant, however throughout Hill’s career he has struggled to find consistency. Coming into this year Hill had posted several seasons of average or below average production. If you take a deeper dive into Hill’s numbers and look at his goals saved above expected, he has posted a -7 since 2017-18. While the number is one of many that can be used to demonstrate value, it does show that Hill has been slightly below average for most of his career.
This will make for a very interesting negotiation. Hill will be looking to cash in on his run with a long-term big money deal. It’s unclear what Vegas will be looking to do; they have several other netminders in their system and do have to consider signing some other pieces. They may elect to go short term with Hill to see if he is in fact their goaltender of the future. I would expect Hill to be looking for a salary in the range for $4MM-$5MM annually on his next contract.
F Ivan Barbashev – Barbashev is now a two-time Stanley Cup champion having won his first title back in 2019 with the St. Louis Blues. Barbashev was a big part of this year’s title with Vegas as he put up seven goals and 11 assists in 22 playoff games after posting 16 goals and 29 assists in 82 regular season games. Although his regular season numbers represented a drop from his 60 points last season with the Blues, the 27-year-old was able to find another gear when the games mattered the most. Barbashev has improved in every season since entering the NHL as he started his career slow and looked like he might never find his offensive touch.
While he was a big part of Vegas’ most effective line in the playoffs, it does look like Barbashev may be squeezed out by cap constraints. With a weak free agent market and multiple teams interested in his services, Barbashev is very likely to test the free agency waters and maximize his income. He made $2.25MM last season and should be able to double his salary on a long-term deal. There was a lot of interest in his services when St. Louis was dangling him at the trade deadline and with another Stanley Cup on his resume that interest has only grown.
G Laurent Brossoit – Brossoit was terrific in the regular season for Vegas but couldn’t keep himself in the net in the playoffs as he fell apart during the second round series against the Edmonton Oilers. Brossoit posted a 7-0-3 record in the regular season with a 2.17 goals against average and a .927 save percentage. While those numbers are terrific, he was only able to dress in 11 regular season games. In the playoffs his play was far less impressive as he went 5-2 with a 3.18 goals against average and a .894 save percentage.
Brossoit is coming off a two-year deal that paid him $2.325MM in each of the last two years and figures to get something similar in free agency. Pittsburgh Penguins backup Casey DeSmith received a two-year contract for $1.8MM per last offseason and Brossoit should be able to top that given that he is a more capable backup and someone who can operate as a 1B option in a pinch.
Other UFAs: F Teddy Blueger, F Phil Kessel, F Spencer Foo,
Projected Cap Space
Just days after winning the Stanley Cup the Vegas Golden Knights management will have a quick turnaround to try and prepare for what should be a busy offseason. The Golden Knights are currently just $3.5MM under the salary cap for next season with some key pieces left to sign from their cup winning group. The good news for Vegas is that they have 21 players already signed for next season including many of the key pieces that brought them a title this season.
The situation for the Golden Knights is not unlike the 2016-17 Pittsburgh Penguins who were able to capture the 2016 Stanley Cup and bring almost their entire group back for a sequel in 2017. Vegas could be in position to do the same.
The biggest hurdle that Vegas will face is in the crease. After missing the entire season with an injury Robin Lehner is not guaranteed to return. He has been rehabbing but will all the injuries and off ice issues he has had to endure Vegas may buyout the veteran if he isn’t a candidate to stay on LTIR. Lehner has two more seasons left on his contract at a cap hit of $5MM, which could be a comparable to what netminder Adin Hill would fetch on the open market as an unrestricted free agent.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.
I thought I had heard Butch talking recently about Nolan Patrick almost in the past tense, as though he is on the verge of considering retiring because of the rotten hand he’s been dealt, healthwise, in his short career. I hope that doesn’t come to fruition, but it’s tough to watch a young player just keep getting smacked in the face by the injury bug.
I’d suspect that Lehner will surely be gone one way or another and you just know some team will throw money at Hill. Still leaves then with two good goalies though. Maybe enough money left to sign a decent replacenent for Barbashev if they can’t keep him.
@Gbear – VGK can only hope that Barbashev will take the old “hometown discount” to stay in a great place and not chase the money, like the Nazmanian Devil. Naz might recover his game, thanks to Darryl’s departure, but Barbashev seemed to be a great fit there in Vegas. I see Barbashev and Kostin being similar in that they both integrated well with their new teams, which brought out the best in them. I’d hate to see Lehner be forced to move on, but the vise known as Mean Old Mr. Cap Crunch has them by the short hairs. Can’t wait for the inevitable carnage that is “Free Agent Frenzy” this season, how about you?
@Mac- I honestly don’t know the direction half the teams are heading in this off-season. The Preds in particular. Teams with cap space may not really be looking to add long term cap hits during their rebuild, so where does a guy like Barbashev go? If I’m Vegas, I stay cheap at the goalie spot and try and keep him.
If the Knights want a chance to repeat and if they see value in resigning Barbashev then it seems that a buyout of Mark Stone would help there cause, He has roughly 40 million left on his deal and he’ll be 35 when it ends but It’s important to note that with his serious back issues which by the way continue I’d be willing to bet he misses more games than he plays over the next few seasons.