With the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs now underway, PHR makes its first foray into playoff series analysis with our 2023 Playoff Primers. Where does each team stand in their series, and what storylines could dominate on and off the ice? We continue our Second Round coverage with the Pacific Division matchup between the Vegas Golden Knights and Edmonton Oilers.
Not much separated the Vegas Golden Knights and Edmonton Oilers in the regular season. Both teams battled to the very end to determine the winner of the Pacific Division, with Vegas finally emerging and finishing just two points ahead of their division rival.
Though they ended up at the top of the division, it was not an easy ride for either team this season. The Golden Knights had to overcome many significant injuries, including Robin Lehner, their starting goaltender, missing the entire season, Mark Stone, an exceptional two-way winger missing the second half of the season and top defenseman Shea Theodore missing significant time in the middle of the season with injury as well.
The Oilers didn’t have the same injury troubles, though Evander Kane missed half the season after having his wrist cut by a skate blade. Their adversity was more about past issues coming back to haunt them. Those issues were goaltending problems as Jack Campbell struggled all season after signing a five-year contract with a $5MM cap hit. The defense seemed to be a bit too offensive minded as well and were not able to shut things down well enough to be a serious Stanley Cup contender.
Regular Season Performance
Vegas: 51-22-9, 111 points, +43 goal differential
Florida: 50-23-9, 109 points, +65 goal differential
Head-To-Head
November 19, 2022: Edmonton 4, Vegas 3 (OT)
January 14, 2023: Edmonton 4, Vegas 3
March 25, 2023: Vegas 4, Edmonton 3 (OT)
March 28, 2023: Edmonton 7, Vegas 4
Edmonton takes season series 3-0-1
Team Storylines
The Oilers seemed to flip a switch at the trade deadline and put all those past defensive issues in the rearview mirror. There were two main reasons for this team finally looking like a sound defensive team as well as an elite offensive team instead of a one-dimensional squad that we have seen in the past.
First, they acquired Mattias Ekholm from the Nashville Predators at the trade deadline and he immediately became their best defensive defenseman as well as their top defender on the penalty kill. He eats up a ton of minutes and plays against the other teams best players while putting up points and ensuring the opposition stays off the scoresheet.
Secondly, the Oilers finally started to rely more on goaltender Stuart Skinner late in the season instead of Campbell. While Campbell’s contract would suggest he is their top guy, Skinner played extremely well down the stretch, starting 16 of the team’s final 21 games and posting a 2.43 GAA and a .920 SV%.
Skinner didn’t quite continue that performance in round one against the Los Angeles Kings as he posted a GAA near 3.50 as well as a .890 SV%. He is going to need to be closer to his regular season numbers if the Oilers want to advance to the Western Conference Final for the second consecutive season.
Also, the Oilers are an offensive juggernaut, but they leaned pretty heavily on just three players in their six game round one win. Connor McDavid has ten points, as did young defenseman Evan Bouchard and Leon Draisaitl led the team with 11 points. However, no one else on the team had more than four points in the opening round. That’s not horrible, especially since Zach Hyman, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Kane, Klim Kostin and Ekholm all had four points, but having a forward other than Draisaitl and McDavid score a point-per-game pace would give the Oilers incredible scoring depth.
It won’t be easy to score at will against the Golden Knights who lost their opening game of the postseason but then eliminated the Winnipeg Jets with four straight victories. They may not have an elite scorer like McDavid or Draisaitl, but they have incredible scoring depth that allowed them to quickly dispose of the Jets.
Chandler Stephenson and Stone led the way with eight points each in five games while William Karlsson, Jack Eichel and Alex Pietrangelo all had five points in the series. Add in Reilly Smith, Jonathan Marchessault, Theodore and Ivan Barbashev and the Golden Knights have scorers up and down their lineup as well as on their blue line.
The Golden Knights will lean on Laurent Brossoit in goal, giving each team a starter with very little playoff experience. Brossoit was solid against his former team, the Jets, in round one posting a .915 SV% and being good enough to outduel Connor Hellebuyck in the other end.
Prediction
Both teams have some inexperience in goal, and the ability to score almost at will. The Oilers have the top end guys while the Golden Knights have plenty of scoring depth, but putting pucks in the net will not be an issue in this series.
It should be a long series, but the defensive depth on the Golden Knights blue line may be the determining factor. Having to face Theodore, Pietrangelo, Alec Martinez and Brayden McNabb will give the Oilers depth players little chance to score while limiting their top guns just enough to outlast them in a long, back and forth series. In the end, home ice advantage in that last game may prove to be the difference.
Prediction: Golden Knights win in seven games.
Oil in 4.
Stone left practice today VERY gingerly.
Oilers in 6.