With the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs now underway, PHR makes its first foray into playoff series analysis with our 2023 Playoff Primers. Where does each team stand in their series, and what storylines could dominate on and off the ice? We begin our Conference Finals coverage with the Eastern Conference matchup between the Carolina Hurricanes and the Florida Panthers.
The Southeast Division reigns supreme, just as we all thought.
After more than 25 years, these former divisional rivals will square up in their first-ever playoff matchup against each other, with higher stakes than anyone expected. Both teams are knocking on the door of their first Stanley Cup Final appearance in decades after building up to this moment for years.
Both teams have also overcome some long odds to get here but under different circumstances. Some had written off the Hurricanes entering their Second Round series against the New Jersey Devils, with injuries to three of their best scorers hampering their chances against a Devils team that had overcome a 2-0 series deficit against Igor Shesterkin and the New York Rangers.
Needless to say, it didn’t matter. The Hurricanes advanced thanks to a Game 5 overtime winner from Jesper Fast, a testament to the depth that’s stepped up and gotten them this far.
The Panthers, on the other hand, finished 17th in the NHL during the regular season and rattled off seven-game and five-game series wins against two of the best teams in the league. It’s thanks largely in part to netminder Sergei Bobrovsky, who’s overcome playoff demons past and is, out of nowhere, earning his keep as a $10MM goalie.
Can Florida’s Cinderella run continue and get them back to the Stanley Cup Final for the second time in franchise history?
Regular Season Performance
Carolina: 52-21-9, 113 points, +53 goal differential
Florida: 42-32-8, 92 points, +17 goal differential
Head-To-Head
November 9, 2022: Carolina 0, Florida 3
December 30, 2022: Florida 0, Carolina 4
April 13, 2023: Carolina 6, Florida 4
Carolina takes season series 2-1-0
Team Storylines
The question for Carolina is simple: can their depth, namely Fast, Jordan Martinook, and Stefan Noesen, keep showing up?
Their job should be made easier, as Teuvo Teräväinen is expected to return to the team after missing most of the playoffs with a broken hand. But Martinook’s 10 points in 11 games and Fast’s eight points in 11 games are near the team lead and ahead of other expected leading scorers like Martin Necas.
That’ll be their ticket to the Stanley Cup Final against a Florida team loaded with more consistently potent names, like Matthew Tkachuk, Aleksander Barkov, and Carter Verhaeghe, in their top six. It’ll also be tough to contend with the fact that Florida’s three leading goal-scorers among forwards in the playoffs (Verhaeghe, Tkachuk, Sam Reinhart) are spread out on three different lines.
Both teams are set in the crease. Both Frederik Andersen and Antti Raanta have played very well for Carolina, but Andersen’s pulled ahead with a 5-0 record and .931 save percentage after Raanta exited the lineup due to illness. Bobrovsky may have surpassed Tkachuk in Panthers Conn Smythe candidates after his performance against the Toronto Maple Leafs, limiting the Toronto attack to two goals in each game.
There are plenty of personnel storylines to go around in this series as well. Not only will it feature all three active Staal brothers in the NHL, but it also features a showdown between Carolina’s Cup-winning captain Rod Brind’Amour and former teammate Eric Staal, who now attempts to upset his former coach and help boost Florida into the Final.
Prediction
Carolina is the more experienced and better-coached team in this series. They’ve overcome multiple question marks after another triple-digit point total in the regular season to get where they are now.
They’ve had plenty of tough lessons to learn from past mistakes, but so have the Panthers after a handful of recent early eliminations. They’re also both even in most matchup categories and boast similarly aggressive styles of play.
It makes this series one of the hardest to predict of the entire postseason. Both teams have knocked off 110+ point opponents with relative ease. Where Carolina pulls away is behind the bench, however, and it could be the deciding factor in what should be a lengthy series.
Prediction: Hurricanes win in seven games.
Cats in 6.