PHR Mailbag: Red Wings, Oilers, Predators, Addison, Hellebuyck, Senators, Draft, Injuries

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include some possible targets for Detroit this summer, what’s next for Ottawa, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in our last two mailbags.

gowings2008: Could Ryan O’Reilly be a realistic top 6C option for Detroit on a short 2-3-year deal?

This is a scenario I briefly talked about in a mailbag last month.  It makes a lot of sense on a few fronts.  First, the UFA market isn’t great, especially if the Boston veterans either re-sign with the Bruins or retire; it’d be stunning to see either of them go elsewhere.  With them out of the picture, O’Reilly is one of the top middlemen available on the open market.

Second, he fits the type of veteran that GM Steve Yzerman seems to like – players that I call bridge veterans.  These are short-term additions that provide a short-term improvement to the roster while allowing prospects more time in the minors to develop.  Throughout his tenure in Detroit, these have largely been the types of players that Yzerman has targeted.

The question is whether O’Reilly will accept a short-term agreement or if he uses the market to his advantage and can secure a longer-term pact.  At 32, it’s not unthinkable that he could get a five-year contract and if the bidding drives the deal to that length, Detroit would be wise to stay away.  O’Reilly fits for Detroit as long as it’s a short-term contract.  Otherwise, he shouldn’t get much consideration.

tigers22 2: Which players will be available for trade during the offseason that the Red Wings could look to acquire to put some more pucks in the net?

It’s a pretty long list, probably longer than I can get into here.  With a lot teams likely looking to get out of a contract or two, there could be some pretty good forwards made available at a discount.  That’s the market I’d be looking in which again ties in nicely with their bridge veteran approach.  Here are a few names to keep an eye on out of that group.

Brock Boeser (Vancouver) – While Boeser has made it known that he wants to stay, his contract is one that the Canucks would likely want to get out of.  He has two years left at $6.65MM and has four seasons of 20-plus goals under his belt while just coming up short of that this season.  Vancouver simply has to move someone out to free up money and if Detroit is willing to absorb that contract (and they certainly have the cap space to do so), then he’d be a nice buy-low add that would immediately bolster their winger depth.

Andrew Mangiapane (Calgary) – It’s unclear if new GM Craig Conroy will want to move Mangiapane but he has just one 20-goal year, a 35-tally effort in 2021-22.  Aside from that, he’s typically in the high teens.  That’s still a useful player but at $5.8MM, he’s an expensive one.  The Flames also need to clear out money and if they feel he’s more of an 18-goal player moving forward and not a 35-goal one, it wouldn’t be surprising if they look to move him.

Taylor Hall (Boston) – Hall’s in his early 30s now and isn’t the top liner he was in his prime.  However, he’s still a capable secondary scorer and had a strong showing in Boston’s first-round loss to Florida.  The Bruins need to create some cap flexibility and while Hall might not be their first choice to move, the two years at $6MM per season remaining on it means it’s something they might have to consider.

Anthony Mantha (Washington) – Why not?  Mantha showed some strong flashes with Detroit but hasn’t been able to bring that to the Capitals with any sort of consistency.  If they want to be active in free agency (perhaps trying to bring back Dmitry Orlov), they’re going to need some cap room.  Mantha’s on an expiring deal at $5.7MM and if could get back to his 20-goal form with the Red Wings, he’d be a worthwhile acquisition.

MoneyBallJustWorks: Edmonton – what do they do this offseason?

I don’t expect them to do a ton this summer.  They made a big swing at the deadline to bring in Mattias Ekholm and that was their big core move.  Now, this summer should be about some tweaks around the edges while trimming payroll to get cap-compliant.

On the back end, while they’d like to keep both Brett Kulak and Cody Ceci, I’m not sure they can afford to do so.  The two combine for a $6MM cap hit which is fine when you have cap flexibility but not so much when you need space.  With Evan Bouchard proving he’s ready for a top-four role, there’s room for one of those players but not so much both of them.  Philip Broberg is also in the mix for a full-time spot which could push one of Ceci or Kulak out.

Speaking of Bouchard, while they’d probably want to sign him to a long-term deal, that’s just not practical based on their current roster.  They’ll bridge him for two years and hope the anticipated increase to the salary cap will allow them to afford to sign him to a long-term contract at that time.

Up front, I could see them moving on from Kailer Yamamoto.  He’s someone I’m going to cover in more detail in a separate piece in the next week or so I won’t go into much detail here but that’s a salary slot they can’t really afford, especially if they want to re-sign pending UFA Nick Bjugstad who fit in nicely after being acquired.  Klim Kostin and Ryan McLeod will get short-term contracts to keep the AAV down.

If they can move out a contract or two by July 1st, it could give them a chance to go after a bottom-six forward or two that they like.  If not, they might be forced to do their shopping closer to training camp when players are looking for a soft landing spot with the hopes of bolstering their value for another crack at the market a year from now.  Edmonton would be very appealing for those players which could yield some good value additions if they’re patient.

Bradley B: Since the Predators became sellers at the deadline, and with a GM change coming, do you see them aiming for a rebuild/retool? Are they likely to try and move some more of their players this summer?

Rumors surround MIN defense prospect Calen Addison. Are there any similar prospects (hopefully centers) out there who need a change of scenery and seem like a close value swap?

Where will Connor Hellebuyck be playing next season?

Full disclosure, my track record of making accurate predictions with Nashville hasn’t been great so keep that in mind reading this answer.  With the state of their roster, I think they should take a step back for a year or two and continue moving out some veterans.  In terms of shooting for longer-term success and not just being a bubble team, that’s their best chance to do it.  But is rebuilding really in their DNA?  Barry Trotz was a win-now coach; is he really going to start his tenure as GM by diving head-first into a rebuild?  With the cap room they have, they can flip the switch and add a few quality veterans.  Add that to their core and they could very well be back in the playoffs next year.  They don’t typically walk away from that chance with regularity so I’m skeptical they’re going to start now.

I know the speculation is out there with Addison but that might be a move that they regret.  His value isn’t the greatest right now so I don’t think there are many promising young middlemen that they’d be able to get in return for him.  Maybe Joe Veleno if Detroit thinks he maxes out in his current role?  A move like that would yield a replacement for Filip Hronek at least.  I could see Carolina moving Jack Drury this summer and a swap of younger players would make sense for them so that could be another possibility.  If Wild GM Bill Guerin thinks highly of Liam Foudy, that could be another option but I think they’d be better off keeping Addison between those two.  Frankly, I think they’d be better off keeping him period.  The best is yet to come from him and Minnesota shouldn’t be rushing to move him as a result.

In yesterday’s mailbag, I talked about the possibility of Winnipeg giving this core one more partial year and seeing if they get a different outcome.  If that happens, then it’s possible that Hellebuyck stays.  But I’ll go a bit off the board and say Carolina.  Pyotr Kochetkov is their goalie of the future but that future isn’t 2023-24.  They’ve been doing fine with mid-tier goalies but those players don’t win too many games on their own.  Hellebuyck can and in the playoffs, we’ve seen the difference that a strong goalie can make.  This is a win-now core and Hellebuyck is definitely a win-now goalie.

jawman74: Where do you see the Senators going from here? Obviously, it seems as if their goal was to try and compete for the playoffs this season but they fell short. Do you think they run it back with this current team, try and retool, or something else? How do guys like DeBrincat or Chychrun fit into the mix? Who’s in net on opening night, is it Forsberg or Sogaard, or someone else? When is their contending window?

A lot of what happens next will be determined by new ownership.  If they maintain GM Pierre Dorion (and by extension, D.J. Smith), they’re going to try to keep building with this group or at least most of it.  If a change is made, then all bets are off.  That scenario is too hard to predict so let’s assume it’s the status quo moving forward.

I think Dorion’s extension is to run it back with this group.  Let’s not forget that with the exception of Claude Giroux, their core forwards are all 25 or younger.  That’s a group that has room to improve organically which should provide reason for optimism to stay the course.  Now, Alex DeBrincat can change that course to an extent.  If he doesn’t want to sign a long-term deal, Dorion might turn around and trade him and they’re probably not getting an equivalent scorer in return while there isn’t one like him available in free agency.  Losing him would hurt, no doubt, but even in that scenario, I still see them pushing for a playoff spot and trying to build this roster up.

Defensively, the addition of Jakob Chychrun gives them two top-pairing players and rounds out their top four nicely so I see him sticking around for sure.  They have decisions to make on some of their younger guys (Erik Brannstrom is arbitration-eligible while Lassi Thomson and Jacob Bernard-Docker are waiver-eligible) and I could see one of them being moved with a veteran like Travis Hamonic sticking around.  Most of the heavy lifting there is done, for now at least.

Ottawa needs a viable starting goalie.  Anton Forsberg isn’t a 1A and Mads Sogaard needs time in the minors.  That said, I don’t think they’re going to pursue one and instead, will look for another Cam Talbot-like acquisition.  Semyon Varlamov makes sense on paper; he’d get a chance to play a bit more while being on a team that should be on the rise.  Their opening night starter should be someone not currently in the organization, I’ll say that much.

As for their contending window, it might be now.  Chychrun has two years left on his below-market deal and with a higher cap at that time, he could cost what Thomas Chabot costs now ($8MM).  Can they afford another deal in that range on their books?  Giroux is up two years from now as well so that’s the soft closing point.  The good news is that their young core is good enough to keep them in it for a while but having moved out some good draft picks and prospects lately, they may not have the pieces to trade for another player like Chychrun down the road.  But if they can land an impact free agent in 2025 or 2026, that window could swing back open.

astoria_lol: What players if any could be considered busts in the upcoming draft? And could any teams trade up for a higher pick by moving reasonable assets?

Matvei Michkov is quite a talented player, so much so that if he was in the same situation as the other top prospects in this draft, he could very well go second overall.  Clearly, he’s not.  With three years left on his deal in Russia and the overall uncertainty associated with Russians right now, it’s possible that Michkov is an NHL bust simply if he chooses not to (or is unable) to come over.

There are some questions about Eduard Sale as well.  Regarded as a top-ten prospect coming into the season, he has fallen out of the first round entirely on some boards.  The common indicator is that he has the skill to play at the top level but there are questions about if he’ll be able to withstand the physicality and play more of a North American game.  Accordingly, some team will draft him based on his skills and hope he can learn the rest but it’s possible that the development of the other elements doesn’t happen.

There will certainly be others that don’t make it but, in fairness, it’s way too early to start making predictions on who could be a bust from this draft class.  As for trading up, sure, the potential is there in theory.  But straight pick swaps are happening less and less at the top of the draft.  I’m sure there will be one or two in the first round but most of the moving up is likely to take place later as the draft goes on.

WilfPaiement: If players have to be cleared to return from injury, then why are there so many injury reveals by players after they are eliminated from the playoffs? Is a player or players really helping their team’s odds of winning by playing injured? It just all seems like a Neanderthal approach. Perfect example. Gabriel Landeskog.

When a player is cleared to return to the lineup, they’re seldom 100% healthy.  They’ve recovered reasonably well from that injury or to a point where they can’t re-injure it (or make it any worse).  Anyone playing a sport at a high level is bound to have wear and tear throughout the year and in hockey, those get exacerbated in the playoffs when their bodies take even more of a pounding from a physicality standpoint.

The challenge is that by mid-April when the playoffs start, the list of players not playing through some sort of issue is usually smaller than the list of the ones that are playing through something.  That also extends to the minors.  If a team sat everyone that was dealing with some sort of injury, they wouldn’t make it very far in the postseason so they can’t sit them all.  The end result is players playing through an injury and a long list of injury reveals after elimination.

Some players at 80% could very much be better than a fourth liner or minor leaguer that’s at close to full health.  It depends on their spot on the depth chart.  If it’s a fourth liner, then sure, sit that player for someone else but if it’s one of your top scorers, you’ll take them that less than full strength.  The longer the playoffs go, the fewer players there are at full strength.  That’s just the nature of a physical sport that gets a lot more physical for Game 83 and beyond.

I wouldn’t call it a Neanderthal approach.  When a team is playing deep into the playoffs, they’re going to get hurt at times, injured at others.  But when the options are sit and be replaced by a weaker player that would further hurt your chances at winning or try to play through it, most are going to opt for the latter, especially with there being no guarantee they’ll get back to that point of the postseason again.

You mention Landeskog.  I don’t think he really has any regrets from playing through his injury.  I don’t think Shea Weber and Carey Price have any regrets from trying to play through their career-ending injuries either (and they didn’t win the Stanley Cup like Colorado did).  They made the choice to play through it and I assume they were given the information to help them understand the potential ramifications of their decisions.  As long as they know the risks, I’m okay with them making the calls to play through those injuries and teams feel the same way.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.