Offseason Checklist: Winnipeg Jets

The offseason has arrived for all but the three teams that still have a shot at winning the Stanley Cup.  It’s time to examine what those eliminated squads will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Winnipeg.

It was a rocky season for the Jets.  At one point, they were atop the Central Division and rolling under new head coach Rick Bowness.  By the end, they barely squeaked into the playoffs and went out quickly in the first round, earning a public rebuke from Bowness along the way.  GM Kevin Cheveldayoff has four prominent players on his roster that are or could be UFA-eligible in 2024.  Not surprisingly, the bulk of their checklist revolves around those four players.

Goaltending Decisions

Let’s get one of those players out of the way first.  Connor Hellebuyck has been Winnipeg’s MVP for several seasons now, often providing high-end goaltending to get or keep them in the playoff picture.  He has done so on a team-friendly deal as well; while his $6.17MM is above the NHL average, he’s a goalie that has been well above league average.  Next summer, he’ll become one of the top-paid netminders in the league.  Will Winnipeg be the team to give it to him?  At a minimum, Cheveldayoff needs to make a serious extension offer and then see what happens from there.  If the 30-year-old balks at signing, then they’ll have to investigate moving him as well.

On top of that, the Jets also need a backup goalie for next season.  As they’ve done in recent years, Winnipeg went for a lower-cost option this year in David Rittich who had a nice bounce-back campaign, posting a 2.68 GAA with a .901 SV% in 21 games.  He’s earned a small raise so Winnipeg will either have to allocate more to their backup position or look for a new second-stringer.  Also worth considering is that if they trade Hellebuyck, they’ll likely have to change gears and look for a more prominent backup.  That could lend a pressure point to the Hellebuyck talks even though he isn’t eligible to sign until July 1st.

There’s also a longer-term element to consider.  There is no high-end starter of the future in their system (although Domenic DiVincentiis had a strong year in the OHL) which is another pressure point on the Hellebuyck situation.  If they don’t keep him, they don’t have anyone in the system close to being ready to step in.  With that in mind, it wouldn’t be surprising to see them target a signed prospect goalie this summer and if they do move their star netminder, it’s quite likely that they’ll be showing interest in a strong prospect goaltender as part of the return package.

Decide On Dubois

Last summer, RFA center Pierre-Luc Dubois was the predominant storyline in Winnipeg among their players.  He had indicated that his intention was not to sign a long-term deal with the team and there has been no shortage of speculation that Montreal would be where he would like to end up.  Interestingly, he didn’t file for arbitration last summer, a move that likely cost him some money as he wound up accepting his $6MM qualifying offer.  That means they get to go through this all over again this summer.

Dubois is once again arbitration-eligible but filing would lock in a contract date near the end of July once the hearing has concluded and the award has been issued, should it get that far.  If his intention is to try to force a trade, he might opt to repeat what he did last summer, eschewing arbitration and waiting it out in the hopes that a move is made and he can potentially negotiate a long-term deal with the acquiring team.

But the Jets aren’t under any obligation to move him to his desired destination(s).  They can opt to treat him like a typical rental player and even if teams believe Dubois will test the open market in 2024, Winnipeg should still get a good return if they opt to move him this summer, especially with a thin crop of available players this year.  But that’s still an if.  It’s possible that Cheveldayoff still hopes he can change Dubois’ mind and convince him that it’s worth staying in Winnipeg.  It’s also quite possible that he opts to keep Dubois to start the season in the hopes of helping the Jets stay in the playoff picture and then pivots to a trade closer to the deadline if they’re not in the race.  Again, in that scenario, he’d likely be the top middleman available and could bring back a strong return.

At the moment, it seems like the probable outcome with Dubois is that he gets moved.  But when that happens is the decision that needs to be made.  It could be dictated by what happens with their other 2024 UFAs which could ultimately make this a big summer of change in Winnipeg or more of the same.

Clear The Defensive Logjam

The Jets boast strong depth on the back end, one that has served well when injuries have arisen but also created some frustration with their younger players with both Logan Stanley and Ville Heinola making it known to management that if they’re not going to play with the Jets, that they wouldn’t mind being moved elsewhere.  On top of that, they lost Johnathan Kovacevic to Montreal in training camp on waivers with the 25-year-old going on to play 77 games with the Canadiens this season.  They also lost Leon Gawanke who opted to sign in Germany for next season (and well beyond) after his frustration at not getting a chance with the big club.

Nothing is set to change as things stand for next season as there are no pending unrestricted free agents on their back end while Stanley and Dylan Samberg need new deals as restricted free agents.  Heinola is presently ninth on the depth chart with Declan Chisholm tenth and a pretty strong candidate to be claimed on waivers if he doesn’t crack the team out of training camp in the fall.  Depth can be great to have but there can be too much of it, especially in the preseason when waivers really come into play.  It appears that Winnipeg is going to be in that situation.

There are three defenders that are set to enter the final year of their respective deals.  Brenden Dillon and Dylan DeMelo will be unrestricted in 2024 while Kyle Capobianco will be a restricted free agent.  One (or two) of those three being out of the picture would open up opportunities for their younger blueliners to step up and try to claim a full-time spot at a much cheaper price point compared to Dillon ($3.9MM) and DeMelo ($3MM).  Winnipeg might also want to move Nate Schmidt but with two years left at just under $6MM, getting value for him would be difficult.

There should be a decent market for Dillon and/or DeMelo.  Both are capable of logging nearly 20 minutes a night and killing penalties and in terms of market value, are on reasonable contracts.  If another team is looking for one of those pieces but doesn’t want a long-term commitment that a free agent this summer would want, they’ll certainly be calling up Winnipeg.  It might be in Cheveldayoff’s best interest to make a move on that front in the coming weeks.

Decisions On Other 2024 UFAs

We still haven’t covered all the 2024 UFAs of note that decisions will need to be made on.  Top center Mark Scheifele is in that situation as well, as is former captain Blake Wheeler.

Scheifele posted a career-high 42 goals this season while reaching the 60-point mark for the eighth straight season.  Quietly, he has the 14th-most points league-wide over that eight-year stretch.  Fortunately for Winnipeg, he has produced most of that on what has been a very team-friendly deal, one that has carried a $6.125MM AAV for the last seven seasons with one more to go.  For a top center, that’s well below market value.  That will change next summer when he should have a chance to push for around $9.5MM (or more, depending on the cap increase) in free agency.

It’s likely that Winnipeg will try to re-sign him, even if some feel that they need to shake up their core somewhat.  Simply put, letting a top middleman go isn’t a great way to try to win.  But is Scheifele willing to extend right now?  After the playoffs, he said it was too soon to think about his nearing free agency.  The Jets will be pushing for a decision soon enough.

As for Wheeler, he’s at a different stage of his career; there isn’t a big next contract coming his way.  He has been a fixture with this franchise for more than a decade and has been quite productive; in the last eight years, he’s 15th league-wide in scoring, one point behind Scheifele.  The 36-year-old still had a reasonable 2022-23 campaign, notching 55 points.

However, it feels like his time with the team could be coming to an end.  It was a bit surprising to see him stay after losing the captaincy although his $8.25MM AAV might have had something to do with that.  But with one year remaining, it’s an easier contract to move while a buyout would free up $5.5MM on the cap for 2023-24 (while adding $2.75MM in dead space the following season).  Cheveldayoff needs to decide if a fresh start for both sides is best and after teams do their summer spending, that contract will become quite difficult to move.  Accordingly, this is a choice that will need to be made in the next few weeks.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.