Offseason Checklist: Pittsburgh Penguins

The offseason has arrived for all but the four teams that still have a shot at winning the Stanley Cup.  It’s time to examine what those eliminated squads will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Pittsburgh.

2022-23 certainly didn’t go as planned for the Penguins.  Even with a veteran-laden roster that was added to at the trade deadline, they ultimately came up short of the postseason for the first time since 2005-06.  As a result, some have wondered if the time is right for them to try to rebuild.  However, there have been no indications that this is the direction they intend to pursue so accordingly, their checklist will revolve around their expected goal of trying to get back to the postseason.

Round Out Front Office

The Penguins wasted little time shaking up their front office once the regular season came to an end as they dismissed both GM Ron Hextall and President Brian Burke.  In the interim, it appears as if managerial decisions for Pittsburgh are being done on a by-committee basis including head coach Mike Sullivan.  They can get away with that for now with the heavy lifting of the summer still a few weeks away but that will have to change soon.

Pittsburgh is believed to be well into the process of filling at least one of those vacancies as they’re believed to be into the second round of interviews for the GM role, a process that started with roughly a dozen candidates.  It’s unknown if some of those being considered for that position could also be options for the President spot as well or if the Penguins will look towards someone more on the business side.  One way or the other, they’ll need to have their new management team in place shortly.

Re-Sign Or Replace Jarry

There aren’t a lot of starting goaltenders that will be hitting the open market this summer but the Penguins have one of them in Tristan Jarry.  When he is on his game and healthy, the 28-year-old is a strong number one.  However, his on-ice performance has been hit or miss at times the last few seasons while staying in the lineup has proven to be a bit of a challenge as well.  Accordingly, his future with the organization appears to be in question.

Jarry is coming off of what has been a team-friendly deal relative to his role with a $3.5MM cap charge.  His hope in signing what amounted to a second bridge contract back in 2020 is that by now, he’d be established as a true starter, allowing him to push for close to double that AAV on the open market.  It’s fair to say that hasn’t happened but with there being few options in free agency, he’s still likely to add a couple million and a couple more years when he eventually puts pen to paper on a new deal.

Should the Penguins be the team to give him that agreement?  Casey DeSmith has one more year left on his contract and showed some good flashes while playing in 38 games, a new benchmark for him.  Internally, there isn’t anyone in their prospect pool that’s close to being NHL-ready so if they opt to make a change, they’re going to need to look at external options.

Who would those options be?  On the trade market, Anaheim’s John Gibson and Winnipeg’s Connor Hellebuyck have been in trade speculation and whoever takes over as GM will likely inquire about those two.  Among unrestricted free agents, Semyon Varlamov has been a starter before and could be a short-term stopgap.  Joonas Korpisalo had a nice bounce-back year but there would be some risk associated with signing him with a track record that has had its fair share of ups and downs.  In terms of free agent netminders, Martin Jones is the only one that played more than Jarry did this season, a sign that there are mostly platoon options available on the open market.

Are any of those options more desirable than sticking with the goalie they know, even with his long history of injuries?  With Jarry being eligible to test free agency in six weeks, that’s a question that they’ll need to figure out an answer to fairly quickly.

Create Cap Flexibility

On the surface, the Penguins would appear to have plenty of salary cap room for next season.  With roughly $63.3MM on the books for next season per CapFriendly, that leaves them about $20MM to work with.  But it’s the spots they have to fill that will ultimately create a cap crunch.  As noted earlier, they need a starting goalie.  They need to re-sign or replace Jason Zucker, a veteran who had a strong bounce-back year, potting the second-most goals of his career with 27.  Brian Dumoulin, who has been a top-four defender for several years, also is set to hit the open market.  Filling those three spots will cost the bulk of that cap room, to say nothing of the three bottom-six forwards that will also reach unrestricted free agency as well.

Sure, there’s enough money for them to fill those spots and ice a full-sized roster on opening night.  But what does that accomplish?  This is a team that wasn’t able to make the playoffs so having a roster that largely mirrors what they had down the stretch shouldn’t be the goal.  If they want to make the postseason in 2023-24, they need to find a way to improve their roster.  Within their current cap structure, that could be challenging.

It wouldn’t be surprising to see whoever takes over as GM looks to see if he can find a taker for the final two years at $5MM per season on Mikael Granlund’s contract.  Alternatively, Bryan Rust, signed at a $5.125MM AAV through 2027-28 could be someone they test the market on.  Defensively, Jeff Petry (two years, $6.25MM) and Marcus Pettersson (two years, $4.025MM) could be in that category as well.  All of them are certainly still capable NHL players but if they’re going to try to shake up the core and bring some different impact players in, that will have to involve moving some core pieces out as well.

Guentzel Extension Talks

One player that could potentially be added to the list above is Jake Guentzel.  He is signed at a team-friendly $6MM AAV through the end of next season which makes him eligible to sign a contract extension on July 1st.  Considering that the 28-year-old has averaged better than a point per game over the past five seasons (333 points in 331 games) and surpassed the 35-goal mark in three of those, it’s fair to suggest that their preference this summer will be to try to sign him to a new deal.  If those discussions don’t go well, then it’s possible (though not probable) that he could become part of that core shakeup.

What might an extension cost?  His camp will likely look to the eight-year, $68MM deal ($8.5MM AAV) that Filip Forsberg signed in Nashville to avoid free agency as the starting point of negotiations.  With Forsberg only having one season with more production than Guentzel in recent years, it’s safe to say they’ll be aiming higher; it wouldn’t be surprising to see his camp push for a cap hit starting with a nine on a max-term agreement.  Pittsburgh might try to argue that his cap charge shouldn’t surpass Sidney Crosby’s $8.7MM but with the captain being signed only one year longer than Guentzel’s current contract, that argument isn’t likely to hold water.

Guentzel has been a key part of Pittsburgh’s top line for several seasons now but he’s about to get a lot more expensive.  If they can get that deal done now, they can avoid any possible trade speculation during the season while also gaining some clarity on what their longer-term cap picture could look like.  Accordingly, whoever the next GM will be, Guentzel’s file should be quite high on their to-do list.

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