Offseason Checklist: Buffalo Sabres

The offseason has arrived for all but the four teams that still have a shot at winning the Stanley Cup.  It’s time to examine what those eliminated squads will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Buffalo.

It has been quite a while since the Sabres made it to the playoffs (the last time they did was in 2011) but optimism is justifiably on the increase in Buffalo.  Several youngsters are starting to grab hold of key spots in the lineup which sparked an impressive second-half run that kept them close to the postseason until the very end.  Accordingly, a lot of their to-do list this offseason revolves around adding to and extending their core, not flipping players for prospects and draft picks.  The time for rebuilding is pretty much over.

Look At Adding A Veteran Starter

Between Devon Levi and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, the Sabres have a pair of young promising prospects who could form a quality tandem before too long.  While it’s quite possible that those two could be the duo next season, that would carry some risk as the pair have 52 career NHL starts combined.  If this was another rebuilding year, perhaps playing both of them would carry some merit but it’s fair to suggest that there will be an expectation of them playing past the 82-game mark next season.

Accordingly, it wouldn’t be surprising to see GM Kevyn Adams look at what’s out there in terms of trade or free agent options.  Anaheim’s John Gibson has been in trade speculation for a while and although Buffalo might not like the four years remaining on his contract, a change of scenery could get him back to being an above-average goaltender.  That would certainly give them a boost in the short term although it’d create a scenario where one of Luukkonen or Levi would likely need to be moved at some point if not as a part of that swap.

If Winnipeg winds up starting a rebuild and moving Connor Hellebuyck, he’d be particularly intriguing, even as a one-year rental.  He’d give the Sabres a significant boost and if the two youngsters weren’t in the swap, they could still try them as a cost-controllable tandem as soon as 2024-25.

In free agency, it’d be surprising to see them take a run at someone like Tristan Jarry.  However, veteran Semyon Varlamov would be a short-term upgrade, allowing Levi to spend some time with AHL Rochester while giving them an upgrade on what they got from veterans Craig Anderson (now retired) and Eric Comrie (still signed for one more year).

Buffalo is in decent shape here in the sense that they don’t necessarily have to make a move.  If they think Levi is ready to be a full-time NHL regular, there could be some upside to going with their top prospects although the risk is certainly higher as well.  But if they can bring in an upgrade, even if it’s just another shorter-term stopgap, it could certainly give them a lift for next season.

Extension Talks

The Sabres will have two prominent defensemen entering the final year of their respective deals and will thus be eligible for contract extensions as soon as July 1st.  Both players are in vastly different situations.

Rasmus Dahlin didn’t quite live up to the hype of being a franchise defenseman over his first three seasons.  There were flashes of dominance but he certainly had more than his fair share of struggles as well.  However, he showed some improvement once Don Granato took over down the stretch in 2020-21, doing well enough for the two sides to agree on a three-year bridge deal that summer.

Since then, Dahlin has certainly become Buffalo’s franchise blueliner.  He has been one of the top two-way rearguards in the league over the last couple of seasons and at 23, it’s fair to say that there is still room for improvement.  His qualifying offer next summer is $7.2MM but that’s not really relevant as there’s a very good chance that Dahlin will become the next NHL blueliner making $10MM or more on a long-term deal.

Then there’s Owen Power.  Like Dahlin, he was a first-overall selection but he’s still at just the beginning of his career having played his first full NHL campaign just this season.  However, by burning the first year with an eight-game appearance in 2021-22, he’s not far away from a new deal.  Have the Sabres seen enough to do a long-term contract now?  That’s far from a guarantee, nor is it that his camp would be willing to sign a long-term deal just 87 games into his NHL career.  Accordingly, while Adams will likely at least explore what the framework of an agreement might look like, this one might not get done this summer.

Determine Olofsson’s Future

Victor Olofsson has been a productive winger for Buffalo, notching at least 20 goals in three of the last four seasons.  However, for the bulk of those four campaigns, it would be fair to say that he has seemingly been on thin ice with the team.  He only received a bridge deal after his entry-level contract and then last year, basically signed a second one, one that gave him a nice raise to $4.75MM but only locked him up for one extra year of team control, 2023-24.

Even with setting a new benchmark for goals this season with 28, Olofsson found himself a healthy scratch at times while being on the fourth line at others, hardly the ideal spot for a player like him.

With back-to-back short-term contracts, the team has punted making a decision on Olofsson’s long-term future in Buffalo but it’s getting to be time to make that decision.  It’s not that they can’t go into next season with him in his walk year but more that they shouldn’t.  With more than 260 career games under his belt, the Sabres know what he can and can’t bring to the table.

Is what he can do worth keeping around?  If so, then they can start to work on an extension.  If not, the time might be right to try to move him before free agency before teams set their opening rosters.  With his cap hit, it would be a swap of players needing a change of scenery, perhaps the newcomer might be a better fit for the roster if they decide to move on from Olofsson.

Add An Impact Defenseman

Even with Dahlin and Power on the roster plus Mattias Samuelsson whose seven-year deal kicks in next season, there’s a definite need to upgrade the back end.  In particular, the right side of the blueline as those three are all left-shot blueliners, leaving Henri Jokiharju as the top option among right-shot rearguards.

Adding one more capable right-shot defender to the mix would nicely round out a back end that still has room for internal improvement as well.  Those players aren’t the easiest to trade for but with the Sabres having ample cap room in a summer when few teams can say that, that will give them an option to try to take advantage of another team’s cap challenges to try to fill that spot.

Alternatively, there are a couple of free agent options that would fit the bill as well in Damon Severson and Mathew Dumba.  Both players are capable of logging 20 or more minutes a night and have shown an ability to produce offensively in the past though both are coming off quieter-than-expected years.  Both are 28 so they will likely command a long-term deal but at the moment, Samuelsson is Buffalo’s only defenseman signed beyond 2023-24; some stability at that position probably wouldn’t hurt.

There was a significant gap between the defenseman that was fourth in ATOI this season (Jokiharju, 21:01) and fifth (Kale Clague, 15:06).  Balancing things out, especially with Samuelsson and Jokiharju having a recent history of injuries, should be high on the priority list, especially with no one else in their system that’s ready to make the jump and play a key role on an NHL roster in the near future.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.