With the start of the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs upon us, PHR makes its first foray into playoff series analysis with our 2023 Playoff Primers. Where does each team stand in their series, and what storylines could dominate on and off the ice? We continue our look with the matchup between the Vegas Golden Knights and Winnipeg Jets.
The #1 vs #8 seed in the Western Conference is not going to be a walk in the park for the top-seeded Vegas Golden Knights. They were able to hold off the Edmonton Oilers and Colorado Avalanche for the top spot in the Western Conference, and while that gives them home-ice advantage throughout the first three rounds, it does not give them an easy matchup in any of those potential series.
The Winnipeg Jets were able to hold off the Calgary Flames and Nashville Predators for the final playoff spot in the west. A 7-3-0 run just before their final game of the season was enough to clinch that spot. Vegas was even hotter down the stretch, finishing 9-1-3 in their final 13 games.
Who can keep the hot streak alive for two more weeks and emerge victorious in a much tighter #1 vs #8 series than we are used to seeing in the opening round?
Regular Season Performance
Vegas: 51-22-9, 111 points, +43 goal differential
Winnipeg: 46-33-3, 95 points, +22 goal differential
Head-To-Head
October 20, 2022: Vegas 5, Winnipeg 2
October 30, 2022: Vegas 2, Winnipeg 1 (OT)
December 13, 2022: Vegas 6, Winnipeg 5
Vegas takes the season series 3-0
Team Storylines
Which Winnipeg Jets team shows up? We have seen a few different versions of the Winnipeg Jets this season. The first version was terrific, as the Jets were the best team in the Western Conference for the first half of the season. They started the year with a 29-14-1 record which put them fourth in the NHL on January 16 but leading the west. A couple of tough road trips to the east followed and a bit of a free-fall began in Winnipeg.
Between January 16 and March 20 the Jets went 10-15-2 to fall to the edges of the playoff race. Instead of talking about the top seed or even home-ice advantage, they were just scrambling to try and get in at all. Then they got hot again and finished the season 7-4-0 to get into the playoffs as the final wildcard seed.
So which Jets team do we see in the next two weeks? The best team in the west like we saw for more than three months to begin the season? The struggling team that showed up for about two months late in the year or the back-against-the-wall squad that was able to grind out wins in the final couple weeks?
Will Mark Stone return to make a difference? While the Jets were the top team in the west at some points, the Golden Knights were right behind them. The difference was the Golden Knights were able to remain consistent throughout the season, even while dealing with some huge injuries. One of the biggest injuries they suffered was to Mark Stone, a fantastic two-way winger who is capable of scoring at a point-per-game pace and is better defensively than offensively. He has been out of the Vegas lineup for the second half of the season and the team began the year 28-13-2 with Stone in the lineup. He was cleared for contact recently and could be back as soon as Game 1. If so, the team that finished the season at the top of the Western Conference just got a whole lot better.
Can Connor Hellebuyck continue late-season heroics? Hellebuyck’s season kind of mirrored the Jets season. He was fantastic for the first three months of the season, but then slipped a bit and did not have great numbers in January, February or March. However, he was able to recapture his magic late in the season and helped the Jets clinch a playoff spot with some spectacular play in their final handful of games. In his last ten games he had a 1.80 GAA and a .936 SV% to propel the Jets into the playoffs. If he can keep up that terrific play, the Jets will be in great shape.
Can the Knights find a reliable starting goalie? While the Jets have one of the NHL’s most reliable, and busiest goaltenders, the Knights had a hard time finding a consistent goaltender most of the season. Adin Hill and Logan Thompson played the most games for the Golden Knights this season in goal, and were steady as they each posted a .915 SV%. However, Hill was hurt over a month ago and has not played a game since March 7. Thompson has also dealt with injuries and has only played one game since February 9.
The Kings acquired veteran Jonathan Quick at the trade deadline but he doesn’t appear to have the same Stanley Cup winning magic he had a decade ago. Quick played ten games with the Golden Knights, posting a 3.13 GAA and a .901 SV% in that time.
It appears their starter could be Laurent Brossoit, who recently served as Hellebuyck’s rarely used backup for three seasons. Brossoit played most of this season in the AHL with the Henderson Silver Knights before being called up due to Hill and Thompson being injured. He played great down the stretch, winning his five April starts while posting a 1.59 GAA and a .946 SV%. Can he continue that hot streak into the postseason? Can he stare down his former teammate in the opposite goal and match him save for save? If so, the Golden Knights have a terrific chance of advancing.
How does Jack Eichel perform in first ever playoff series? Golden Knights leading scorer Jack Eichel is 26 years old and has had a great career so far, but he will suit up for his first ever playoff game when this series begins. He has scored 446 points in 476 career regular season games, but the playoffs are a different entity.
Whose depth proves to be greater? While Eichel was the team’s leading scorer, he only had 66 points. He did also only play 67 games so it was a great season for him, but there are no Art Ross Trophy candidates on this roster. That doesn’t mean they can’t score, as they have plenty of depth with Chandler Stephenson, Jonathan Marchessault, Reilly Smith, Alex Pietrangelo and William Karlsson all scoring more than 50 points and Mark Stone certainly would have if healthy.
The Jets roster is built similarly. Kyle Connor had nearly a point-per-game season with 80 points in 82 games and Josh Morrissey, Mark Scheifele, Pierre-Luc Dubois, Blake Wheeler, Nikolaj Ehlers, Nino Niederreiter and Cole Perfetti can all contribute plenty of offense.
It will be a difficult task for both teams defensive pairs to shut down all three of the opposing team’s top lines and should lead to some depth players stepping up to play big roles in this series since neither team is leaning on just a couple of players to provide scoring. Both teams are set up for balanced scoring and it will be interesting to see if anyone can step up and score over a point per game in the series to give their team the edge.
Prediction
The prediction: On paper, the Jets look just as good as the Golden Knights, and they were at times, but they found ways to be inconsistent throughout the season. The Knights on the other hand were able to continue their winning ways even with key players out of the lineup for long stretches. The Golden Knights will outlast the Jets in a long, hard-fought series and win in seven games.
Jets in 6.