PHR Playoff Primer: Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Tampa Bay Lightning

With the start of the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs just a few days away, PHR makes its first foray into playoff series analysis with our 2023 Playoff Primers. Where does each team stand in their series, and what storylines could dominate on and off the ice? We begin our look with the Atlantic Division matchup between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Tampa Bay Lightning.

In what may be the most hotly anticipated series of the First Round, two teams with lofty expectations will clash for the second straight year. Both teams have seen significant roster turnover since last year’s battle, with many new depth pieces looking to make impacts for Toronto, while Tampa returns without some members of the ancillary core that has gotten them to three consecutive Stanley Cup Finals.

The series presents a major test for both teams. They both enter the playoffs on wildly different trajectories based on the last few weeks of their regular season play — and those trajectories both contrast with the auras surrounding their recent playoff performance.

The potential reward for winning this war of attrition? The record-slaying Boston Bruins.

Regular Season Performance

Toronto: 50-21-11, 111 points, +57 goal differential
Tampa: 46-30-6, 98 points, +29 goal differential

Head-To-Head

December 3, 2022: Toronto 3, Tampa Bay 4 (OT)
December 20, 2022: Tampa Bay 1, Toronto 4
April 11, 2023: Toronto 4, Tampa Bay 3

Toronto takes the season series 2-0-1

Team Storylines

Anything else said about the immense pressure the Maple Leafs face to win a series would be a retread. How they avoid the mistakes of years past, though, combined with how they’ve addressed perceived weaknesses this season, is worth a deeper look.

In last season’s loss to the Lightning, Tampa held Toronto to four goals in Games 6 and 7. In 2021, Montreal held the Maple Leafs to three goals in the final two games. In the 2020 Qualifying Round against the Columbus Blue Jackets, they were shut out in the deciding Game 5. Offense evaporating at crucial times has kept the Maple Leafs from deep playoff runs.

The bulk of the pressure will again rest on the core four of Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, John Tavares, and William Nylander to keep up their production as the series progresses. But Toronto’s acquisition of Ryan O’Reilly before the trade deadline should not be overlooked as a potential antidote to their offensive woes. He’s seemingly recaptured some offensive confidence despite decreased ice time, registering 11 points in 13 games since the trade and six points in five games since returning from a hand injury that kept him out for most of March. Combined with his winning pedigree and playoff experience, he’s one of two main x-factors for Toronto in this matchup.

The other is goaltending — and the potential for a surprise Game 1 starter. While Ilya Samsonov is still expected to start after his breakout campaign, he missed the last two games with minor injuries and, in his place, rookie Joseph Woll has posted spectacular numbers in limited action (6-1-0, .932 SV%, 2.16 GAA). The chances of the 24-year-old seeing playoff action are greater than zero, especially given Samsonov’s brief and shaky playoff history with the Washington Capitals. If Matt Murray clears concussion protocol and can provide an experienced relief option, that’s a bonus.

For Tampa Bay, this series represents the start of what the team hopes will be another deep playoff run, one that results in the franchise’s third Stanley Cup championship in four years. The main factor Tampa has going for them? They were in this exact position one year ago, and found a way to fend off Toronto in a grueling series. They created a blueprint for themselves to follow, just as they’ve done for the numerous teams they’ve eliminated over the past three seasons. That year-to-year playoff consistency is what makes them such a daunting first-round opponent despite their relatively inconsistent regular season.

Just like it is for Toronto, a major storyline for the Lightning is goaltending, only for different reasons. For Toronto, the question is whether Samsonov’s regular season success will translate to the playoffs, where he has been shaky in the past. For Tampa, the main question will be if the team will be able to once again count on playoff brilliance from Andrei Vasilevskiy after a regular season that was, while strong, not the dominant year many might have expected from him. The Maple Leafs have a lethal set of forwards and impressive depth.

If Vasilevskiy can make scoring goals feel impossible in the most important moments — just as Carey Price did for the Canadiens in 2021 — then Tampa will once again triumph. But if he can’t, and he proves to be more the mortal, beatable goalie he was at times this regular season than the impenetrable brick wall he was in the Lightning’s two Stanley Cup runs, then the Maple Leafs could finally get the playoff series win they’ve been waiting for.

Prediction

As most playoff series typically do, this battle is likely to come down to goaltending. On paper, Vasilevskiy is easily the more accomplished and reliable goalie. And if he shuts down Toronto’s scorers and Tampa once again proves victorious, that wouldn’t be a surprise to anyone.

But Toronto came close last year. They drew blood and nearly knocked out the eventual Prince of Wales winners, pushing them to the brink in a way no other Eastern Conference team could. Now, they’ve added a Conn Smythe Trophy winner, revamped their defense, added experienced depth forwards, and have gotten some of the best goaltending they’ve seen since Frederik Andersen’s departure.

This series could truly go either way, but at least at this moment, this year feels different. The prediction: Maple Leafs win in six games.