With the start of the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs just a few days away, PHR makes its first foray into playoff series analysis with our 2023 Playoff Primers. Where does each team stand in their series, and what storylines could dominate on and off the ice? We continue our look with the Central Division matchup between the Dallas Stars and Minnesota Wild.
For the second time in their history, these two franchises linked at the hip will face each other in a first-round matchup. After losing in six games to the Stars in 2016, the shorthanded Wild are once again tasked with attempting to knock out the team that preceded them in the hockey capital of the United States.
Dallas has enjoyed their first 100-point season since defeating the Wild in 2016, while the Wild maintained their grip on a divisional playoff spot despite the absence of Kirill Kaprizov for much of the season’s last few weeks. Now likely without another important piece in Joel Eriksson Ek to start the series, though, Minnesota will need to continue their next-player-up mentality to avoid their seventh straight first-round loss.
Regular Season Performance
Dallas: 47-21-14, 108 points, +67 goal differential
Minnesota: 46-25-11, 103 points, +21 goal differential
Head-To-Head
December 4, 2022: Minnesota 6, Dallas 5 (SO)
December 29, 2022: Dallas 4, Minnesota 1
February 8, 2023: Minnesota 1, Dallas 4
February 17, 2023: Dallas 1, Minnesota 2 (SO)
Season series tied 2-2
Team Storylines
These two teams present an interesting matchup for an unusual reason: each team’s two biggest strengths may just cancel each other out.
Jason Robertson’s season needs no introduction. Not only did his 109 points finish tied for sixth in the NHL, but they also blew past Mike Modano’s Dallas single-season record of 93, set back in 1993-94, the team’s first year in Texas.
Unfortunately, he’s matched up against Kaprizov, who nabbed the Calder Trophy away from Robertson in 2021. Despite missing 15 games, Kaprizov potted 40 goals for a second straight season and played over 21 minutes per game.
Where Dallas pulls away in this matchup, at least on offense, is their center depth, especially with Eriksson Ek’s injury concerns. While the Wild cornerstone center is progressing faster than anticipated in his return from a lower-body injury, Dallas’ lineup down the middle of Roope Hintz, Max Domi (or Tyler Seguin), rookie Wyatt Johnston, and potential Selke contender Radek Faksa could prove tough matchups for Minnesota’s lacking center core.
The x-factor in Eriksson Ek’s absence will undoubtedly be Ryan Hartman, who’s still a top-six player but not the 34-goal scorer we saw last season. After putting up five assists in six playoff games against St. Louis last season, they’ll need similar playoff production from him between Kaprizov and Mats Zuccarello to round out their depth.
Both teams also boast some of the best young goalies in the league, but they carry different degrees of certainty. Dallas knows what they’re getting in the postseason with 24-year-old Jake Oettinger, who nearly had one of the most incredible series steals in NHL history against Calgary last year with a .954 save percentage in a seven-game loss.
For the Wild, Filip Gustavsson, also 24, finished near the top of NHL leaderboards with a .931 save percentage and 2.10 goals-against average, albeit with only 37 starts compared to Oettinger’s 61. That’s because the battle-tested Marc-Andre Fleury remains an option for Minnesota after recording a .906 save percentage and a 2-3 record in five games against St. Louis last season.
Both teams boast stingy defenses, although Dallas’ actual results this season overpower that of Minnesota’s reputation. That’s not to discredit how well the Wild limited chances against this season — however, Dallas finished second in the NHL in expected goals against, per MoneyPuck, behind only the Carolina Hurricanes. If Dallas can impose their system against an already somewhat goal-starved Wild team, it could be another early exit for Minnesota.
Prediction
The Minnesota Wild are a good hockey team with distinct strengths. However, the Stars don’t provide an advantageous stylistic matchup for Minnesota’s first series win in eight years.
Dallas has had a better season at both ends of the puck and boasts the goalie with stronger recent playoff experience and more stamina as a starter. None of this includes the track record of first-year head coach Peter DeBoer, notorious for making deep playoff runs in his first seasons with a team.
Both teams play structured games, though, and it shouldn’t be a quick out for the Wild by any means. Dallas has the necessary advantages to pull out a series win, though, as they look to return to the Stanley Cup Final for the second time in four years.
The prediction: Dallas wins in six games.
Hartman can be an x-factor if he stays out of the box.
I gave up on the Wild after the break but they found a way to win. They get outshot in a lot of games and will really need backcheckers to step up.
If Wild wins one in Dallas, I’m optimistic of Wild in seven. Let the whiskers grow.
Without JEE Minnesota is done. They don’t have the same firepower and Hartman isn’t a first line center. Dallas in 5.
This is the year the Stars finally win their 2nd cup