PHR Mailbag: Larkin, Flyers, Blues, Penguins, Maple Leafs, Bedard, Goalies

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include a discussion of the potential rebuild coming in Philadelphia, possible changes for Pittsburgh next season, and whether we’ll see a goalie ever go first overall again.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.

HockeyBoz: Do you think the Red Wings will look to ADD a bona fide #1 center? I think Yzerman OVER-PAID big time on Larkin as he is NOT a #1 center and can not drive a team as all the homers here in Detroit think. He is the best player on an average at best team. They need goal-scorers!

I don’t expect them to be adding a middleman that’s better than Dylan Larkin in the near future.  The simple reason for that is this – I don’t think there will be any that are available.  Detroit isn’t in a position to be trying to go all-in here; they’re a few steps away from that.  The slow, steady build is clearly what they’re planning to do and with that, they can get away with the status quo with Larkin on the top line for a little while yet.

As for him being overpaid, I’m not sure I agree with that.  We saw what Bo Horvat got from the Islanders at $8.5MM.  His teammate Mathew Barzal checks in next year at $9.1MM.  Roope Hintz is at $8.45MM with similar numbers this season to Larkin.  Relative to market value at least, Larkin seems to fit in pretty close to where he should be on that scale.

Now, if you want to make the case that spending that type of money on a 1B type of center isn’t ideal, that’s fair.  But with a dearth of free agents available, Larkin would have been the best center on the market this summer.  Could they really afford to lose him?  How much of a step back would that be to their timeline?  Those are factors that I imagine Yzerman took into consideration when they handed out this deal.

In a perfect world, I think Detroit’s goal is to draft and develop a center that could one day supplant Larkin on the top line, pushing the captain down to the second trio.  But finding one from outside the organization is going to be tough as those players just aren’t available all that often.

Black Ace57: I know I ask this almost every time, but after Chuck being fired and what people at the top have said are the Flyers finally going to do the proper rebuild they need?

When it comes to the rebuild, I’m a lot more confident of it happening now than I was prior to the trade deadline.  Notwithstanding the odd timing of Chuck Fletcher’s firing (if you’re letting him go a week after the deadline, why not make the move before then to let Briere show what he could do?), the intended separation of duties into two positions should ease them into a rebuilding direction.

First-time general managers don’t often come in with win-now expectations and I suspect that trend will continue as, like many, I figure Briere will have the interim tag lifted and the new president will work with Briere to chart a new direction.

As for whether it’s a proper rebuild, I suppose that depends on your definition of the word proper.  Does that mean a five-year, burn-it-to-the-ground strategy?  I don’t think that’s their intention.  Instead, a shorter-term process that churns out some of their veterans and brings in some picks and prospects to add to their current young core is where I think they’ll lean.

DonnieBaseBallHOFer: Say the Flyers remove the interim tag from Briere, and name you Pres. of Ops…following Torts’ comments that subtraction is needed before addition, who are you keeping/cutting amongst these:

Keepers: Couturier, Laughton, Konecny, Tippett, Ersson, Frost, Foerster, Noah Cates, York, Seeler

Available for the right Deal: Frost, Hart, Provorov, Farabee, Ristolainen, DeAngelo

Time to Move on: JVR, Hayes, Bellows, Braun

On the Fence: Sanheim, Atkinson

Obvious caveat that some of these contracts are going to be hard to move…

Well, hiring me is one way to mess up the rebuild but I’ll play along.  I’ll leave the pending UFAs off my list as they’re almost certainly moving on already.

Keepers: Tippett, Frost, Foerster, York, Hart, Cates

Available For Right Deal: Laughton, Konecny, Ersson, Seeler, Ersson, Farabee, Sanheim, Provorov

Looking To Move: Hayes, Atkinson, Couturier, Ristolainen, DeAngelo, Sandstrom, Bellows (likely non-tender)

Some quick rationale on some of the revised placements.  I’m not sold that Samuel Ersson is their goalie of the future.  He has done decently in limited action but I’m not moving on from Carter Hart to anoint Ersson their new starter if it’s up to me.  24 isn’t too old for a rebuild, especially since goalies tend to hit their primes a little later than skaters.  I’m looking to extend him and if it winds up being a longer rebuild than planned, look at moving him then.

Travis Konecny only has two years left on his deal and if it’s an extended rebuild, is he part of the future plans?  If someone wants to pay up for the contract which is a below-market one, that’s going to be a pretty valuable return.  That return likely fits my timeline better than an extended Konecny two years from now.

The other big change from my list is Sean Couturier.  Nothing against him but that was a bad contract the day it was signed.  He still has some time left as a legitimate top-six middleman, assuming he’s back to full health next season.  I’d be looking to get out of that contract while he still has some short-term utility to a team before it becomes a deal that they’ll have to pay a high price to get out of down the road.

On the back end, Travis Sanheim’s extension basically locks him in as part of the plans for now.  Ivan Provorov would be the likelier of the two to move as he’s basically in the same spot as Konecny.  Anthony DeAngelo isn’t going to be part of their long-term plans for a rebuild and Rasmus Ristolainen is a contract they’d probably like to get out of but he’ll probably stick around for a while.

Gmm8811: So far, I like what Army has done with acquiring assets and the pickups of Vrana and Kapanen. I still believe he has to clear some cap space. Do you think Krug is the one to go assuming he’d waive his NMC? Would Parayko? Both? Binnington has become more of liability and is a head case. I’ve heard he would only waive in order to go to Toronto, but that doesn’t seem a likely option.

Let’s look at the cap situation first.  Per CapFriendly, they have $76.8MM committed to 18 players for next season, leaving $6.7MM in room to sign four or five players.  There aren’t many prominent pending free agents; I’d put Alexey Toropchenko as their best RFA and Thomas Greiss as their best UFA.  So, do they have to clear money?  Probably not, especially if they’re looking at taking a step back for a year.  There’s enough cap room in there to bring up Joel Hofer as the backup, re-sign Toropchenko, add/promote a few players making around $1MM, and call it a day.

I don’t think the right question around Torey Krug is whether he’d waive his trade protection.  The question is will anyone want him?  It has not been a good year for him, to put it nicely.  With four years left on his deal at $6.5MM and declining production, he’s not exactly going to be in demand; St. Louis would likely need to pay down the contract and incentivize a team to take him on.  That isn’t to say his value can’t improve and he’ll have trade value down the road but right now, he doesn’t.

As for Colton Parayko, the long injury history would scare me off if I was a GM, as would a $6.5MM cap hit through 2029-30.  But his combination of size and skill is hard to come by so there would be some interest.  But unless St. Louis is planning on going through an extended rebuild, I don’t think GM Doug Armstrong will be actively looking to move him.  If this is a quick turnaround, he’ll be part of their future plans.

Then there’s Jordan Binnington.  The on-ice antics certainly aren’t helping things but the on-ice performance is hurting him even more.  He’s making $6MM for four more years and has a save percentage that doesn’t crack the top 40 among qualifying netminders.  Forget the other things and just look at his performance, it’s not going to have anyone wanting to trade for him.  He might want to play for his hometown team although that’s straight-up speculation at this point.  But, like Krug, Binnington is going to have to be a lot better next season to have a chance of moving.

bapthemailman: What will the Penguins roster look like next year?

I expect the core will mostly stay in place.  With their long-time veterans locked up, I don’t think they’re heading for any sort of rebuild.  However, there will be some changes.

To me, Tristan Jarry is a legitimate starting goalie in the NHL.  However, his propensity for injuries is going to make it awfully difficult to commit a long-term contract at starter money this summer.  I expect them to take a look at the trade market in June and I wouldn’t be shocked if their opening night starter is someone that currently isn’t in their organization.  That’s one change.

On the back end, I could see the team moving on from Brian Dumoulin.  While Ty Smith plays a completely different style, Dumoulin’s departure would open up a full-time spot for Smith who should be an important part of their future.  Having spent the bulk of this season in the minors, Smith’s next contract shouldn’t be more than $1.5MM which would give Pittsburgh a chance to shift some spending elsewhere.  If Dmitry Kulikov is willing to sign for close to what the Penguins are covering on his deal ($1.15MM), I think they’d happily do that in the hopes of having to avoid trying to trade for more depth at the deadline next season.

Up front, I think they’ll take a run at extending Jason Zucker, albeit at a price tag that’s lower than his current $5.5MM AAV.  If they can’t re-sign him, they’ll have space to look for another forward.  I could see them focusing on a center.  Yes, Mikael Granlund, their big deadline acquisition, can play down the middle but he’s much better off on the wing.  Adding someone to that third line that can take some pressure (and playing time) away from Jeff Carter would be nice.  Off the top of my head, someone like Lars Eller would fit that bill.

I don’t expect the Penguins to have a lot of cap space heading into next season as I believe they will be looking to keep this team in the playoff mix.  There could be a few changes among the veterans in an effort to try to shake things up but for the most part, there should be a lot of familiarity with this group heading into 2023-24.

Grocery Stick: How is Toronto looking if they don’t give a new contract to their GM this offseason? Selling off hugely for a new start? Or will they still try to find a way to be a contender next season?

In this scenario, I believe the Maple Leafs would have several quality executives trying to land that job while saying that they have a plan to win now without blowing up that core group.  There is simply too much talent on Toronto for someone to turn around and say that it’s time to blow it all up.

Could there be a coaching change if Tampa Bay ousts them in the first round again?  Sure, it’s possible.  Is it even possible that whoever is running the team – Kyle Dubas or someone else – decides to move one of their core four players?  Yep.  Extension talks with Auston Matthews and William Nylander (which can happen this summer) will give them an idea about the potential ability (or inability) to keep this group together with those discussions potentially shaping their plans this summer.  But even at that, that’s one piece being traded for another key piece, not a drastic change.

The other reason I can’t see them beginning a full-scale rebuild is this – they don’t have many of their own draft picks.  If you’re going to rebuild and finish low in the standings, you lose the benefit of doing so by not having those selections.  Toronto’s 2025 first-round pick has limited protection and they don’t have a second-rounder until 2027.  The last thing they’d want is them struggling and other teams reaping the benefits.

I think Toronto can win with this core group even with their previous playoff performances.  I’m sure many others around the league do as well.  Whoever is in charge next season is likely to have that same mindset.

pawtucket: Any chance Bedard or any draft picks mind you…says no to the Coyotes (like Lindros did) and demands a trade?

I suppose there’s always a chance that it could happen but I wouldn’t count on it for top players.  Does Connor Bedard have a desired destination or two in the back of his head?  Probably.  But it’s hard to force your way to be traded to a team without any sort of trade protection.  No one in the draft is anywhere close to getting that as a player has to be UFA-eligible or 27 in order to get that.

Optics-wise, how much damage would demanding a trade and refusing to report do to Bedard?  It would do some at least.  Is it worth bringing a bunch of negative attention on himself before he ever plays an NHL game?  Probably not.  And, besides, it’s not as if there’s a truly bad situation for him to go to.  Wherever he winds up going, he should be that team’s franchise player quickly.  With that comes plenty of ice time and attention, not to mention a very pricey second contract.  Even with Arizona where their tax rate is certainly favorable, not to mention their climate.  If Bedard wants to force his way to a team, that’s what free agency is for.

Now, if a player picked later in the draft opts to not want to sign with the team that drafted him (Arizona or otherwise), that’s another thing.  That happens with more regularity, especially on the college front.  A player might eventually determine there isn’t an ideal fit for them in the system of the team that picked him and decide to go elsewhere by choosing not to sign.  That doesn’t typically generate much attention but there are a handful each year.  The odd time, those players project to be good NHL pieces but oftentimes, they simply wind up as organizational depth.  That will probably happen with someone from the 2023 class but it almost certainly be a top selection doing it.

RipperMagoo: When will the next 1st overall goalie be drafted?

Who knows what future generations will bring but right now, I’d be surprised if we ever see another goalie go first overall.  For starters, there are still many teams who are firm believers that goalies shouldn’t be taken in the first round.  I imagine that when you change the discussion to the first-overall selection, that number might jump to 32 teams out of 32 feeling that way.

Look at where goaltending is going in the NHL.  Teams are gravitating towards more of a platoon system for cap reasons to avoid paying a pricey starter while the playing time of those expensive starters is going down.  60 games for a number one was commonplace not that long ago but now, that’s at the high end of the playing time scale.  With a first-overall pick, do you want to pick a player that will be scratched 25-30% of the time?  Is that the most efficient use of a premium draft choice?  Probably not.

There also seems to be a greater emphasis on skater skill development at the amateur levels than there is on goalie skill development.  Scoring is going up at those levels as well.  There are more technological improvements happening for skaters than goalies.  Those are elements that also have to be taken into consideration.

Could another goalie go first overall?  Sure, anything can happen and maybe an elite standout netminder becomes the next phenom.  But I wouldn’t count on it happening, at least anytime soon.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.