Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Evgeny Kuznetsov’s future with Washington, Toronto’s recent history of first-round exits, and much more. If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s mailbag.
2012orioles: Do the Capitals look to shop Kuznetsov?
First, GM Brian MacLellan needs to sit down with Kuznetsov’s new agents at Newport to see what the center’s preference is. It’s no secret that they were listening to offers on him a couple of years ago although nothing came to fruition in terms of a deal. Since then, the 30-year-old has had one strong season (78 points in 79 games in 2021-22) and one underwhelming campaign (55 points in 81 games this season).
Kuznetsov only has two years left on his deal after this one which actually helps Washington a bit if they do look to move him. Yes, his price tag of $7.8MM is on the high end, especially if he keeps hovering in the 50-60-point range but a team that’s looking for a short-term stopgap until a prospect is ready for that role could find him more desirable than someone who’s signed long-term, even if that player has a lesser AAV. I’m not saying they’d get a premium return or anything but I think there would be a decent trade market.
But at the end of the day, the answer to this question is likely dictated by MacLellan’s intentions for next season. If they’re rebuilding, he probably goes. If they’re looking for a quick retool and to get back in the playoff picture next season, I think Kuznetsov stays, barring a public trade request that might force their hand. With Nicklas Backstrom no longer the player he once was and their young middlemen (Connor McMichael and Hendrix Lapierre) not ready for tough NHL minutes yet, they need Kuznetsov if they’re aiming for a Wild Card spot or better next season.
joebad34: Do the Sabres move on from Okposo and Girgensons? What defenseman would they potentially look to pursue in a trade or free agency to fill a top-four spot? Is Dumba a fit?
Let’s start with the forwards. If Kyle Okposo wants to come back, I think Buffalo will have a spot for him. It might not be particularly high on the depth chart but I suspect they’d like to keep their captain in the fold as this is still a pretty young roster overall. This is a group that will have playoff aspirations next season so having a veteran that has the respect of the team wouldn’t hurt. Plus, Okposo can still be effective in a limited role.
I don’t expect Zemgus Girgensons to be back though. If they want to make a push for a postseason spot, they’ll need to upgrade their roster this summer and that’s one roster spot they can upgrade on. Girgensons is a capable fourth-line pivot but after nine years with Buffalo, a change of scenery wouldn’t hurt.
As for the defensemen, Mathew Dumba is a logical target on the free agent market. He’s capable of logging big minutes and plays on the right side which is where their depth is a bit weak. I also think there’s a bit of an upside play in signing him if he can get back to his old form. The one question I have though is how much does Buffalo want to spend long-term on the back end? Rasmus Dahlin is going to be very expensive in 2024-25 as will Owen Power. Mattias Samuelsson is already on a long-term deal. You’re probably looking at well over $20MM for those three at that time; can they afford another bigger-ticket deal in their salary structure and if they can, do they want to?
As for other free agent targets, Damon Severson is also in Dumba’s tier but the same questions exist. If they want to go for a shorter-term pickup, Kevin Shattenkirk and John Klingberg are veteran right-shot players that could give them an offensive boost, take a regular shift, and balance out the lineup without being a long-term commitment on the books. If they’re shopping in the short-term tier, Anthony DeAngelo could be a trade target and if Nashville sticks with the rebuild, Tyson Barrie should be available as well. They’re both on expiring deals which might be appealing.
Gbear: Does new Preds GM Barry Trotz keep John Hynes behind the bench or move on from him?
Jakeattack: Do you think Trotz will try to move either Ryan Johansen or Matt Duchene this summer?
Let’s combine the Nashville queries. Two months ago, I would have leaned toward a coaching change. The fire sale was on and if a new era was beginning, why not do so with a new coach? But then the Predators had quite a run down the stretch with the team coming to life. If Trotz thinks there’s any chance of that being sustainable, it’d be hard to move on from Hynes.
He has one year left on his deal which gives Trotz an easy option to kick the can down the road. Let him start on an expiring contract and if things go sideways early on, make an in-season change for an interim option and at that point, it’s probably heading toward a rebuild. If things go well, let the season play out and re-assess 12 months from now. I think he stays but I will say this, I am not doing well at predicting what happens in Nashville this season and if recent history repeats itself, this prediction might not hold up for long.
Unlike that coaching prediction, I’m actually confident in this next one. Yes, Trotz will try to move those two, Johansen especially. At $8MM apiece for at least two more years (Johansen is signed through 2024-25, Duchene 2025-26), they’re not getting a great return on those deals. Neither has emerged as a capable top center and while Duchene’s a capable number two, that’s a big price tag for someone in that role. That money could likely be more efficiently spent elsewhere.
Of course, 31 other teams around the league know that. The time to move Duchene was probably a year ago when he had 43 goals and 86 points. His performance this season only dipped his value. Johansen, meanwhile, is coming off a 28-point campaign, albeit one that saw him miss 27 games due to injuries. Unless they’re swapping a bad contract for another bad contract (and in a market where so many teams are capped out, that can’t entirely be ruled out), I don’t expect there to be any interest in him. Trotz I’m sure will try to move these contracts but it’ll be much easier said than done.
W H Twittle: Is there a rational explanation for the Leafs’ playoff successes?
Assuming you mean their lack of playoff success, I think there is. In those series, they lost the goaltending battle. In 2017, it was Braden Holtby allowing two goals or fewer in three games, all Toronto losses. In 2018, Tuukka Rask wasn’t great in that series but he outplayed Frederik Andersen. The next year, Rask was much better.
In the bubble, Columbus’ goalies picked two shutouts in five games. A year later, Carey Price did just enough to outduel Jack Campbell to kickstart Montreal’s improbable run to the Final. And last season, Andrei Vasilevskiy was between the pipes. All in all, three future Hall of Famers, another goalie who led his team to the Stanley Cup, and Columbus’ netminders shining.
One can discuss the coaching and the underachieving stars and that’s fine. But if you’re looking for a quick, simple, rational explanation, Toronto got ‘goalied’ in several of their recent quick playoff exits.
Gmm8811: Who do you see as up-and-coming AHL coaches? Have you heard of any recent former players that want to make the jump to coaching?
If you’re asking about up-and-coming AHL coaches that could soon make the jump to the NHL, Mitch Love (Calgary) should be the first to come to mind. He just won Coach of the Year there for the second season in a row and had a good run with WHL Saskatoon before that. Just 38, he’s the type of young coach that someone should take a chance on. I’d also put Marco Sturm in that mix. He’s the coach of the Kings’ affiliate in Ontario. With his experience there plus internationally as a coach, I think he’ll get a chance at some point.
As for recent former players, those that want to coach somewhere typically are able to do so, either at the junior or minor league level. Accordingly, I don’t really have a list of former players that are looking to join those ranks; if they want to, they’re probably already there. I’ll give you one name to keep an eye on though in Marc Savard, head coach with OHL Windsor. While they were a surprisingly quick exit in the playoffs this year, that franchise has done pretty well in his limited time there and it wouldn’t surprise me if someone offers him an AHL head coaching job or an assistant spot on an NHL bench for next season.
hunterdog: Any NHL coaching spots opening up for Rand Pecknold after leading Quinnipiac to the National Championship?
Generally speaking, it’s not very often that a coach goes directly from college to the NHL as his first professional coaching experience. I think it’s only happened four times, five if you want to count David Quinn who went from Boston University to the Rangers but he had some AHL assistant time beforehand. Jim Montgomery and Dave Hakstol are the others to do so within the last decade.
Is it possible that Pecknold joins that list? Sure. But there aren’t a lot of vacancies out there and of the ones that are, the only one that seems like a semi-realistic possibility would be Anaheim, a team that’s still firmly in their rebuild. (Columbus struggled but that’s a team that I think will be looking to get back in the playoff race before long and might not want a first-time pro coach.) A list of one team that he might fit with doesn’t give him great odds.
For those not familiar with Pecknold, he has been at Quinnipiac for nearly 30 years dating back to when they were playing at the Division II level. He has coached internationally at the junior and men’s levels which certainly helps. But if he wants a shot at an NHL coaching job, I think he’ll need to go somewhere as an assistant first and then, after a couple of years, he might have a better shot than he would now.
The Duke: Switching gears from the Crystal Ball this time: I’m wondering if you (or any reader) knows of a website or two where one can “build” their own fantasy hockey keeper league scoring mechanism (only need goals/assists/GA stats)? Thanks in advance.
Admittedly, I’m not a big poolie so I might not be the best one to ask here. I play in a couple of leagues, one of which I run through Yahoo. That one has customizable scoring settings where you can pick your scoring categories and it does have a keeper option. But that site (or ESPN, another fairly popular one) is typically for a league with a draft every year. I know there is an import roster option in Yahoo so maybe that’s one to try either way. Officepools is one I’ve heard some good things about but have never tried for myself. Readers, if you know of others out there, please post them in the comments.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Thanks for your answer to my question. You may have something there.
It will be interesting to see this year if Vasilevskiy can do it again, but this time without Hedman and Cernak. Tall order.
There’s alot of support from Preds fans for bringing up the Milwaukee Admirals head coach, Karl Taylor, to replace Hynes. It is impressive how well prepared call ups from the Admirals are.
Hynes’ system seems to do no better with talented players than with pluggers and grinders. That’s great with a torn down roster, but not if you have Stanley Cup aspirations.
Last thing buffalo needs is DeAngelo. Philly would love to dump guy like every other team he plays for. Trotz will keep Hynes . He say this year is evaluate everyone. If they have bad year bring in his guy next year.
Thank you for insightful responses. As fans, we are entitled to focus our thoughts on one team, whereas you must pay attention to 32.
As a Sabres fan, I was mildly bemused by the suggestion that the Sabres D would be improved by adding more scoring. The team was in the top-5 in putting the puck in the net. The team needs to focus on stopping their opponents from doing the same. Someone comparable to Samuelsson to pair with Power is what they need. The R/LHD need is overstated IMO; many players are very competent playing their offside. (Dahlin is exhibit A.)
The Sabres have stealthily become analytic aces. I have confidence that they’ll find a good 4D that fits the team’s core age-range. He should be pricey but not paid at an elite level, like Samuelsson.
I lived in Denver for years and became a big Barrie fan. For quite some time I pined for him to be in blue & gold. But with the current roster, he’s almost a laughably poor suggestion for the Sabres.