PHR Mailbag: Golden Knights, Red Wings, Offer Sheets, Lafreniere, Swayman, Coyotes, Conn Smythe

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the potential for an offer sheet this summer, Alexis Lafreniere’s future with the Rangers, Jeremy Swayman’s trade value, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.

aka.nda: What wizardry does the Golden Knights’ offseason have in store for us?

Rarely has there been a dull summer for Vegas since they joined the league but I think this offseason could be the exception.  They’re not in a spot where they have to dump salary to be compliant with the salary cap.  I’m sure they’d like to try to re-sign Ivan Barbashev but depending on what happens with other areas, they might not even need to clear money to make that happen.

A lot of their offseason activity this summer will revolve around Robin Lehner.  Is he able to come back?  If yes, then they might want to look to trim some money if they want to realistically try to keep Barbashev in the fold.  Otherwise, they can put him back on LTIR and use his $5MM.  Some of that will go towards a backup to Logan Thompson (likely Adin Hill, Laurent Brossoit, or another veteran netminder) but that won’t cost $5MM alone; they can use some of that plus their cap space and try to keep Barbashev that way.

If they do decide they want to move some money out, Alec Martinez is the logical choice.  He’ll be on an expiring deal next season and isn’t the impact defender he was when he first joined the Golden Knights.  Accordingly, his $5.25MM AAV is on the high side.  They probably won’t be able to clear that full deal without either paying part of it down or giving up other assets but they could take back a forward making a bit less to fill one of the vacancies that will be created in free agency.

Vegas likes to chase down the big deal, I get it.  But there isn’t an elite free agent out there and let’s face it, they probably don’t have the prospect pool and draft capital to make the top offer in the bidding for an impact player on the trade market.  Years of moving picks and prospects will do that to a team.  So perhaps this summer will be a quiet one for Vegas, one that sees them lose a few players but keep the core largely intact.  In other words, the type of summer that befits a strong contender.

gowings2008: What are some 2nd line center options for Detroit heading into next season?

I have some bad news for any team looking for help down the middle this summer – there isn’t much in free agency to get excited about.  Is Max Domi worthy of a long-term commitment to play on the second line?  Maybe but I’m not sure Detroit is the right team to give him that deal.  Has J.T. Compher shown enough to be a legitimate second-liner?  I’m not sold that he’s a 50-point player on the Red Wings.  Ryan O’Reilly (the established veteran, not the Detroit center prospect with the same name) could fit as a short-term option and fits the bridge veteran approach GM Steve Yzerman has taken with some of his pickups in recent years so perhaps he’s an option.  Assuming that Boston’s middlemen re-sign or retire, those three are the top options on the open market.

On the trade front, is the time right for Detroit to push a bunch of chips in to make a big splash and add an impact center?  That’s not typically what a non-playoff team does so I’m not sure they really are too active on this front.  Without many long-term commitments on the books, I wouldn’t be shocked if they kicked the tires on Kevin Hayes in Philadelphia, especially if the Flyers are willing to pay that deal down a little bit.  Then that becomes another bridge veteran approach, someone that can hold a spot while they hope to draft and develop a future impact center.

Honestly, I think the answer to this question is the same player as this year, Andrew Copp.  I like him more as a third-liner but I don’t think Michael Rasmussen and Joe Veleno are true top-six options at this point in time.  As a result, I think it’s Copp’s spot to lose.

Josh2831: Any players you see that could get a serious offer sheet this summer and could the Predators be the team to make the offer?

Generally speaking, offer sheets are so rare that my answer to a question like this will almost automatically be no.  In most cases, the offer has to be so high above market value to deter the team from matching and when you look at the thresholds, it’s hard to find a price point for a player that the signing team is comfortable with and the other team won’t match.  I don’t think anyone goes above the $8.58MM level and unless the player isn’t that good, whichever team is offer sheeted will match.  Frankly, I think the lower end of the market is where there could be so much more activity (in the third-round range or less) but everyone plays nice on that front so I don’t expect anything to happen there either.

But there is one player who could theoretically be a bigger risk to sign an offer sheet, Pierre-Luc Dubois.  He’s a year away from unrestricted free agency and if Winnipeg was to match a one-year offer sheet, they wouldn’t be able to trade him.  The Jets would then be faced with accepting the draft pick compensation as a return or walking him straight to the open market in 2024.  And if he really wanted to make it interesting, he’d opt for the top of the grid where the compensation is a first-round pick and a third-rounder ($6.435MM).  Doing so probably leaves money on the table but anything higher than that is a punitive price for the signing team for what’s likely to be a one-year rental and Winnipeg would happily take the picks and run and Dubois shouldn’t want to hurt his potential new team.

At that lower price point, it’s a harder call to make, especially if GM Kevin Cheveldayoff wants to give some of this core group one more chance, perhaps with a couple of changes based on how the playoffs went.  Dubois probably wouldn’t sign a multi-year offer as doing so means Winnipeg could match and he’d have to stay longer than he might want to, assuming his end goal is still to move elsewhere.

By the way, I don’t think it would be Montreal, his speculative desired destination, giving him that offer sheet as with where they are in their rebuild, moving an unprotected first-round pick isn’t a good idea, especially if they think they could get him in free agency a year later.  For a contender with some cap space though, that pick is going to be much lower in the first round and such a move becomes more justifiable.

Now, for Nashville specifically, my answer is a question back to you.  Why would they get in on an offer sheet?  They’re a team that appears to be in transition right now, the type of team that shouldn’t be willing to part with unprotected draft picks to sign a player at above-market value.  I don’t see the incentive for them to get in on any offer sheets this summer.

Jasen: With the Rangers being in win-now mode, and the Canadiens being in a rebuild, any chance at all that the Canadiens might be able to trade for Lafreniere? And if yes, would a 1st and A prospect be enough to get the deal done?

Philosophically speaking, a team that’s rebuilding probably shouldn’t be parting with first-round picks but Montreal technically did last year, flipping the first-rounder they got for Alexander Romanov to get Kirby Dach.  So, I suppose it’s possible they could kick the tires, especially since they have an extra pick in the first round in June.  I don’t think they’d go that high with an offer, however, considering he hasn’t been able to consistently crack New York’s top six and the fact that Montreal isn’t at the point yet where they should be moving their top prospects or their first-round pick which will be no worse than seventh overall.  An offer that has Florida’s first-round pick this year (assuming it lands at 17th overall) and a couple of ‘B’ prospects (or equivalent pick) is around as high as I think they’d go right now.  And unless New York has soured on him that much, I don’t think they should take that offer.

As for the Rangers’ side of things, I don’t think the idea of moving Lafreniere is necessarily a bad one.  They’re going to have some tough decisions to make this summer from a cap perspective and while they could try to bridge the 21-year-old to keep the short-term cost down, it’s only kicking the cap problem down the road for a year or two.  Are they better off taking a futures-based return now and using that money to put on a long-term K’Andre Miller contract instead?  I think there’s a case to be made for that approach, especially if New York is hesitant in thinking that Lafreniere will break out and become that top-level talent that made him the first-overall selection back in 2020.  Moving on that quickly from a top pick would sting but if they can get a first-round pick plus an ‘A’ prospect like your proposal suggests, it might be the right move for them to make.  I just don’t see the Canadiens being the team to offer the top package.

SkidRowe: If he’s too expensive to re-sign, what can the Bruins get for Jeremy Swayman in the offseason?

Whenever I get a goalie trade value question, I usually take the answer that comes up in my head and dial it down a peg or two since recent history suggests that goalie trade values aren’t very good.  But I’m not going to do so here.

Here are two quick stat lines to consider before reading further.

Swayman: 88 GP, 2.27 GAA, .920 SV%
Mystery Player: 98 GP, 2.20 GAA, .927 SV%

The mystery player is Cory Schneider and those are his career numbers at the time he was traded at the draft back in 2013 in a deal that saw Vancouver pick up the ninth-overall pick.  Schneider’s numbers are a bit better but Swayman is younger and has more team control (three years) than Schneider did at the time (two years).  If I’m Boston GM Don Sweeney, a first-round pick in that range is what I’m looking for.  Pittsburgh at 14 is the only team that stands out so an equivalent drafted prospect could also be an option, if not potentially preferable if they’re looking to stay in the mix next season.

Granted, there are many teams that eschew the idea of drafting a goalie in the first round.  But there’s a difference between drafting one and getting one who has already shown himself to be an above-average goaltender.  At a time when a lot of teams are looking for quality goaltending, a young, controllable option with an early good track record sounds pretty appealing, even if it costs a first-rounder or equivalent prospect.  It has been a while since a goalie has brought that type of return but I think Swayman can be the exception.

Coyotes1: Hello, what do you think the Coyotes are gonna be doing during the offseason? Are they going to trade for players with bad contracts? Like Mike Reilly and Josh Bailey, is there anyone else you can think of? Or do they just focus on re-signing their players? Thank you and have a great day!!!

With Arizona acquiring the contracts of Shea Weber and Jakub Voracek, they’re not in a spot where they have to do anything to get to the cap floor.  By the time they re-sign their players and fill out their roster, they’ll be well over the Lower Limit.

The biggest factor in answering this question is one that none of us have access to and that’s how much money the team lost this season playing at a college facility.  If revenues were down substantially and not made up for in other ways, there might not be much budget room for them to work with; it wouldn’t surprise me in the least if their actual payroll budget in terms of actual dollars is below the minimum.  They just get away with it with insurance covering sizable parts of the contracts for the injured players.

Having said that, I think there will be an openness to taking on a contract or two in the right situation.  One is a high AAV, low salary expiring deal.  Another is something they think they can pump up the value of and flip for an asset, kind of like what they did with Shayne Gostisbehere.  Reilly fits in that category.  Bailey could be an option for the first category although a $3.5MM salary might deter them a little.  I could see them taking Tyler Myers from Vancouver once his signing bonus is paid in mid-September if the Canucks are angling to create some late space since the cash outlay would be down to $1MM at that time.

The challenge here for Arizona is that a lot of the recent deals signed were backloaded to mitigate the escrow risk.  With a declining escrow rate in this CBA, players were more willing to get more money later knowing they’d be able to keep it.  As a result, there aren’t as many Andrew Ladd-like deals out there anymore to be made where they can keep the salary cost down, a restriction that isn’t in place for a team like, say, Chicago who has to spend to get to the floor.  That’s going to make it hard for the Coyotes to add notable assets on this front.

Having said that, it wouldn’t shock me if they went and added another LTIR player.  Toronto’s Jake Muzzin would be a top target along those lines as his salary after his signing bonus drops to $2MM and as long as that contract is insured, they’d only pay a chunk of that.  Brent Seabrook (Tampa Bay) is in a similar situation.  The trade returns on players like this aren’t great as evidenced by the Weber and Voracek moves but assets are assets and I don’t think they have a lot of budget room to work with.

Nha Trang: Who will be this year’s John Druce: the guy who comes from nowhere to light it up and make a stab at the Smythe?

Based on how things have gone in the first round so far, the best answer I can think of here is Laurent Brossoit.  My one concern for Vegas in their series against Winnipeg was goaltending but Brossoit more than got the job done.  The Golden Knights are a deep team and if Brossoit does well enough to help them keep moving on, he’d probably at least garner some consideration if they made it to the Stanley Cup Final and he was still between the pipes.

I know the situations aren’t the best from a direct comparison – Brossoit is a veteran and Druce had his breakout performance in his sophomore year.  But Brossoit was in the minors less than three months ago, basically a complete afterthought.  If you’re not even in the league as of a few months ago, that’s good enough for me to qualify as coming out of nowhere.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.