PHR Mailbag: Orlov, Predictions, Atlantic Division, Karlsson, Hextall, Officiating

After two mailbags last weekend that focused on the trade deadline last weekend, we turn our focus to the non-deadline questions with including Ron Hextall’s future with Pittsburgh, officiating, and more.

2012orioles: Do the Caps sell? And if so, is Orlov a trade candidate? Could they still bring him back in the offseason if he’s traded?

Well, we know the answer to the first two questions as yes, they sold and yes, Dmitry Orlov was traded.  So, let’s focus on the possibility of him returning next season.

Generally speaking, players that are traded at the deadline rarely go back to the team that dealt them.  That’s not to say it doesn’t happen but off the top of my head, I can only think of a handful of pricey veterans that ultimately went back to the team that moved them.  I expect that Orlov won’t be in that minority.

Prior to being dealt to Boston, the Capitals and Orlov’s camp took a real run at trying to get an extension done but reports at the time suggested the two sides weren’t exactly close with term being the sticking point; Washington wanted a shorter-term deal than Orlov.

I can certainly understand why Orlov is looking for a long-term pact.  He’ll be entering his age-32 season in 2023-24.  This is his last shot at a long-term agreement, one that likely would take him close to retirement.  He should have a good shot at getting it too.  But at the same time, I understand why Washington was hesitant to give him a long-term deal as those last couple of seasons might not age well given the hard minutes Orlov has played over the years.

Is it possible that one side has a change of heart in July?  Sure.  But I don’t think much is going to change over the next few months that definitively makes someone change their mind.  If he doesn’t re-sign with Boston, he’ll be one of the top free agent blueliners on the open market and someone will give Orlov a long-term deal.

The Duke: OK, Crystal Ball, let’s hear some wiley wisdom: 1. Which teams meet in the Stanley Cup Final – and who wins it? 2. Which 3 or 4 players currently in the minors make a scoring impact in the NHL next season? 3. Who are your Top-5 forwards, Top-3 offensive D-men, and Top-3 goaltenders in the upcoming NHL draft? As, always, thanks in advance!

1) Boston has been the favorite in the East basically all season long and bolstered their lineup at the deadline.  It’s hard not to go with them coming out of their conference.  In the West, Colorado is the trendy pick with the expectation that they’ll find their stride down the stretch.  But that’s too easy of a pick for this.  I’ll go off the board a bit and say Dallas to come out of the West.  They have strong goaltending, are good defensively, and have impressive scoring depth.  As for who wins in this too early to predict Final, I’ll go with Boston.

2) When this question came out, William Eklund was still in the minors so let’s go with him.  The Sharks wisely have slow-played his development and he’ll be ready to play a bigger role next year because of it.  Alexander Holtz is finally in the minors but I expect he’ll be back in the NHL next season and he has too much offensive upside to have another year like this one.  I think we’ll see some turnover coming in Calgary next year which could pave the way for Connor Zary to get an extended look.  Ridly Greig might not put up a lot of points right away in Ottawa but I think he’ll make an impact at least.

3) The ball hasn’t dug too deep into this year’s class of prospects yet so this could certainly change closer to the draft but here goes:

Forwards: Connor Bedard, Adam Fantilli, Matvei Michkov, Leo Carlsson, Zach Benson

Defense: David Reinbacher, Mikhail Gulyayev, Axel Sandin-Pellikka

Goalies: Carson Bjarnason, Jacob Fowler, Scott Ratzlaff

W H Twittle: This was the year that the Sens, Sabres, and Wings were expected to take the next step in their respective claims to a playoff spot. What happened?

Boy, things have changed in the couple of weeks since this question came up.  Generally speaking, I think things have gone somewhat as expected for two of the three at least.

Ottawa: They’re the big underachiever out of the group.  I thought they’d have been legitimately in the Wild Card battle at least.  Now, they’re on a nice little run and just added Jakob Chychrun so they’re definitely staying in the battle for a Wild Card spot.  While they certainly won’t be favored if they get to the playoffs, just getting there and playing meaningful games in April is an important step to take for that franchise.

Buffalo: With due respect to Craig Anderson (who’s having a nice year) and Eric Comrie, is that really a playoff-caliber goalie tandem?  I think the expectations for the Sabres this season were to be more competitive while assessing the improvement of their young core.  I think they’re about where they figured to be, a non-playoff team but considerably more competitive.

Detroit: I had them a bit like Buffalo, more competitive but still on the outside looking in.  I think they could have made enough of a run to get into a Wild Card spot had they been buyers at the deadline but they pivoted to selling after seeing other teams load up.  They haven’t made their big splash yet that really signifies they’re in the mix so them still being on the outside looking in doesn’t surprise me.

jdgoat: Do the Senators make sense for an Erik Karlsson reunion?

Technically, this was a trade deadline question but I wasn’t expecting Karlsson to move so I pushed it to this column.  I think it would have been neat to see him go back and there certainly would have been a role for him to fill but I don’t think it was a realistic option (and this is before they went and added Chychrun).

Very quickly, Ottawa’s core group has gotten more expensive.  Joshua Norris, Brady Tkachuk, and Thomas Chabot are all around the $8MM mark.  Alex DeBrincat will join that group when he signs his next deal this summer which is going to check in around his $9MM qualifying offer.  Even with San Jose hypothetically retaining 25% of the contract, Karlsson would still be in that group.  That’s five players making what would be close to 50% of the Upper Limit next season.  Let’s not forget Claude Giroux at $6.5MM while we’re at it.  They can’t really afford any more big-ticket contracts.  That’s why getting Chychrun on a below-market contract is such a nice pickup for them.

It’s also worth noting the Nikita Zaitsev deal which saw them send Chicago a pair of draft picks to take on his contract.  If they don’t make that move, they don’t get Chychrun.  Not for cap reasons but for budgetary reasons; with an ownership situation that’s clearly in flux, they don’t have the green light to add significant payroll right now.  That alone takes the idea of Karlsson going there off the table until a new ownership group steps in.  It would have been neat to see but Karlsson returning to the Senators probably isn’t a viable option anytime soon.

@TheeDavidDoonan: Why won’t the Penguins fire Hextall?

I was hesitant about pushing this question here in case Pittsburgh GM Ron Hextall went out and had, let’s call it, a redemptive deadline.  I don’t think he did.  Without digging into what happened too much, willingly taking on two more years of Mikael Granlund after this one at $5MM per season was not the type of upgrade many were hoping for or expecting to see.

However, that upgrade falls within the parameters of their expectations as a team that’s trying to win now.  With the veteran core group they have, a full-scale rebuild isn’t happening.  Being as close to the playoffs as they are, merely selling off their free agents wasn’t going to drop them far enough in the standings to be in the mix for a high draft pick in June.  So, even though it could be an exercise in futility in the end with the way several other Eastern teams loaded up, he went and added to his roster.

Barring a new directive from ownership, one that is more amenable to at least a short-term retooling, I don’t see a change coming.  Hextall is barely two years into his tenure which is on the short side for general managers who typically get longer leashes than head coaches.  As long as Pittsburgh stays in the playoff mix, I expect them to stay on their current trajectory and continue to operate as they did this week as a team that’s going to try to hang around the playoff picture.

HockeyBoz: I have a question. I am asking your opinion on the Ref’s inconsistency of let’s say cross-checking and the role Toronto plays. Case in point. Dylan Larkin gets crossed check in the neck vs. Dallas some time ago, but NO call, NO nothing. Larkin out for some time after that and needs surgery to recover over the summer. Larkin cross-checks Oshie, 5 minutes and a game and a fine. Last night Lindgren cross-checks Rasmussen, 2 minutes. The last two look almost identical and you can even say Lindgren’s looked more vicious. How can anyone in Toronto not see the similarities in the last two? The Dallas incident was some time ago and probably didn’t have the capabilities to contact Toronto to get the call right.

Cross-checking is one of those things that could be called on every single shift of every single game so there’s always some management going on with regard to what is or isn’t worthy of a penalty.  Every referee has a different standard.  And that’s just for minor penalties.  Now add in the possibility of upgrading it to a major and the standard is even more different from official to official.  It’s a judgment call so there is going to be some variability on a game-to-game basis.

For reference, here is the actual definition of cross-checking from the NHL rulebook: “The action of using the shaft of the stick between the two hands to forcefully check an opponent.”  How many times do you see something that fits within the definition of that rule per game?  I’d put the over/under around 100.  It’s not ideal but there is no way to redefine the definition of cross-checking to something that’s black and white that could be called every time like ‘puck over glass’ so the inconsistency is going to remain.

Now, let’s talk about the role that Toronto plays in the Situation Room.  If a minor penalty is called on the ice, it can’t be reviewed.  It’s only if the on-ice call is elevated to a major that it can be reviewed.  If the referee calling it misses the severity and only calls a minor, there’s no way for the Situation Room to buzz down and say this needs to be looked at.  While there’s no firm directive saying this, officials know not to call everything a major and then review it, that would just drag things on too much.  It’s left to their on-ice judgment and when that happens, you’re going to wind up with different calls on very similar levels of severity.

foxberg: My question is related to the rules. Maybe you can answer. Let’s say a team is playing shorthanded. Then a penalty is called on the team that’s on the PP. The shorthanded team then scores on a delayed call. What happens after? Who’s in the box? Does a player on the PP team still serves the penalty and they play 4 on 4?

I’m going to rewrite this scenario to try to simplify it and I hope I’m not crossing up what you were asking.  Team A (Player 1) is shorthanded and Team B (Player 2) takes a penalty to make it four-on-four.  Then Team A scores on a delayed penalty to Team B (Player 3).  In that scenario, Player 2’s penalty ends, Player 3’s begins, and we stay four-on-four until Player 1’s penalty ends at which point Team A goes to the power play.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.