PHR Mailbag: Penguins, Avalanche, Wild, Bad Contracts, Sandstrom, Deadline Struggle

With the trade deadline now less than a week away, the focus of the mailbag this weekend will be questions pertaining to trades and the upcoming deadline.  With so many deadline questions submitted, we’ve split this weekend’s mailbag in two so be sure to check back in yesterday’s column if you don’t see yours submitted here.  Next week, the focus will primarily be on the non-deadline queries (with a couple of trade ones in there as well).

One More JAGR: Do the Pens finally realize they aren’t gonna crack the playoffs this year with how competitive the Metro is, how uncompetitive the Pens are, and how they have pretty much no cap to address any of the multiple issues plaguing the team? Do they instead look towards the offseason and will the plan be to let the UFA’s walk and try to trade some cap out in hopes that the closing window on the big three can be better next season? Also is it finally Sully’s time to be out and try to go get Trotz?

I think it’s too early to say the Penguins aren’t going to make it.  A divisional seed isn’t happening but they can catch and pass the Islanders in the Wild Card race if they win their games in hand.  Granted, their recent performances aren’t exactly inspiring much hope that they can win those games, tonight being a notable exception.

I touched on this earlier this month but there is no good option here.  They can’t truly rebuild with their veteran core locked up long-term.  They can’t fall far enough down to really tank for a high draft pick.  But they’re not good enough to contend either.  I still think that if there’s a low-risk upgrade they can make (clearing Kasperi Kapanen’s cap hit off the books gives them some flexibility), they’ll do it over the next few days even though there’s a case to make that doing so defies logic.

Among their pending UFAs, I suspect that they want to re-sign Tristan Jarry.  Brian Dumoulin’s value isn’t great at this point so they wouldn’t get much for him.  There might be some interest in Jason Zucker but it’s not going to be a top return.  And their other expirings are depth guys where the interest is going to be limited at best.  There’s not enough to really restock the cupboard.

As for the coaching situation, I think we can rule out Trotz taking over behind the bench in Pittsburgh with him poised to become the next GM in Nashville.  (Obviously, this question came well before the Trotz news broke.)

@iwtfwc: WHAT are @Avalanche going 2 do? Many “LINKED” players off the board & still injured, also Landeskog’s return timeline unsure, your thoughts? And, at this point in time, thoughts on this list?

M.Domi
N. Bjugstad
J. Puljujarvi
J. McCabe
L. Schenn

Chris MacFarland’s hands are tied right now until he has a better understanding of when (or if) Gabriel Landeskog and Erik Johnson can return.  If both can’t come back, they’ll have a ton of cap space to work with and can shop at the high end of the market.  If one can’t come back, they’ll still be able to add a smaller piece or two.  If both are likely to be back though, then they’re looking at more or less having to match money.  Right now, they’re going to wait as a few more days might give them the clarity they need to know which way they’re going to proceed.  I expect them to try to be a buyer either way, it’s just a matter of knowing which part of the market they’ll be shopping in.

As for your list, I’d take off Jake McCabe.  With two years left and Chicago wanting a first-round pick if they’re going to retain money, that one doesn’t work.  I’m not sure Jesse Puljujarvi is worth getting either unless it’s a deal right before the buzzer sounds and they have extra room to burn.  Luke Schenn makes a lot of sense on paper but without a second-rounder or a third-rounder in the next two seasons, will they be able to be the top bidder?  Would they move a 2025 second-rounder to get him?  If other teams are offering thirds this season or next, they’ll have to go up a round to cover the longer wait.

I like Max Domi as a secondary option.  He can play center and the wing and while I’m not sure he’d be able to produce at a similar rate as he is with Chicago (46 points in 57 games), he’d give them some more options in their middle six.  But again, without seconds and thirds in the next two years, that move might be tricky to make as I assume their first-rounder isn’t in play.  Nick Bjugstad could help in the bottom six and if Arizona is okay with a 2024 fourth-round pick for him, sure, that would make sense.  I think they might get more than that though with his contract and the year he’s having.

If they do have LTIR money to spend, I could see them being interested in a player like Gustav Nyquist who’s out for the season but should be back for the playoffs.  Sean Monahan, if he’s in that situation, would be another option on that front.  Lars Eller is another possible target with Washington now selling.  If Johnson is going to be out for a while, Nick Jensen might be a target for a replacement on the right side of the back end as well.

Zakis: With the Wild in NHL purgatory and having a solid set of prospects, would it be better to sell or buy at the trade deadline? What direction do you see them going?

Follow-up question: what would Hartman get in a trade?

I’ve flip-flopped on this one a few times in recent weeks.  Considering they’re in a playoff spot at the moment, it’s hard to make a case to sell, especially as their dead cap costs go up next year from the increases to the Ryan Suter and Zach Parise buyouts.  This might be their best shot for a little bit.  On the other hand, they’re pretty much certain that they won’t be able to re-sign Matt Dumba and the idea of losing him for nothing isn’t ideal.

I keep coming back to them doing a bit of both.  In a perfect world, they find a spot for Dumba and then turn around and get a capable replacement, perhaps using part of the return for Dumba with the net gain being an upgraded draft pick or something like that.  His performance this season makes that a challenge though so admittedly, I don’t expect that to happen; I think he stays put.  I think they’d like to open up money for next season so if there’s a move to be made to do that, it’d be hard not to but that also potentially qualifies as a seller move.

However, with them having plenty of cap space, they can absorb some pricey expiring contracts and add to their depth.  I could see them sniffing around in the final hour before the deadline looking to simply relieve some teams of a player for a late-round pick or equivalent return that ultimately sees them upgrade a depth spot or two without really giving up much value.  Doing both is a tough needle to thread though but I think it’s what they should do if they can.  I don’t think they’re good enough to truly contend but when you’re a handful of points out of the division lead, it’s hard to only subtract from your roster.

Moving Ryan Hartman is an interesting idea.  His value isn’t as high as it was last year when he had a career season but he’s still a pretty good bargain at $1.7MM through next season.  I could see that being worth a first-round pick but in doing so, they’d be taking a key piece off their roster, one that would be pretty difficult to replace, even with more financial flexibility than other teams have.  Unless they’re a straight seller, I don’t expect them to consider that.

Pawtucket: Who is the worst player on an expiring deal on a playoff team?  And then who should they trade him to for what return?

My immediate thought was Milan Lucic but Calgary isn’t in the postseason.  Let’s call them playoff-adjacent so they’re out.  My second thought was Jonathan Quick of the Kings.  $5.8MM for a save percentage of .879 isn’t good value at all.  Clearing that contract would give them plenty of flexibility.  It’d also open up a hole between the pipes and I’m not sure the optics are great for trading a 16-year King who seems like a candidate to retire at the year.  He’s probably out as well as a result.

My next (and last) thought was to look to the minors for the negative-value deals there.  That would be Anton Khudobin, a player that legitimately is an NHLer but his contract was easy to bury.  I don’t think he’s likely to be dealt with an incentive (which is what I assume you were expecting to see) but would rather be a throw-in in a deal like Craig Smith was to match money.

I will say this, however.  If you’re looking for teams that a buyer might need to dump money onto, I’d go with Minnesota, Anaheim, and Chicago.  The Wild could do a move like that to add a depth piece, The Ducks have indicated before that they’re open to such a move, and the Blackhawks have done it enough times already that there’s no reason to think they wouldn’t again.

Emoney123: It appears Hart and Ersson are the starter and backup for the Flyers… so where does this leave Sandstrom? Is he a trade candidate and who would be interested?

I don’t think Felix Sandstrom is much of a viable trade candidate.  His limited NHL numbers (3.52 GAA, .880 SV%) this season are pretty mediocre and even his AHL numbers have been merely adequate (aside from the seven games this year).  Those types of goalies don’t have much value and having a one-way contract next season only makes him less appealing, even at a $775K AAV.

Is there a playoff-bound team that would have him rated higher than their third-string option in the AHL?  Probably not.  Is there a non-playoff team that might view him as a possible piece for the future?  Again, probably not.  Frankly, I wouldn’t be shocked if he was put on waivers in the next few days to try to get him to Lehigh Valley to try to help in their playoff push.

If there’s a window to trade Sandstrom, it’s this summer after the free agent goalie shuffle.  If a team didn’t get one of their targets, then maybe they flip a minor leaguer to the Flyers for Sandstrom and then try to run him through waivers in the fall.  I know that doesn’t sound like much but there’s not much trade value here.

Nha Trang: Alright, this might call for some serious speculation, but it’s what just came to mind. What team blows the deadline the worst … either a contender that made a bad trade, a seller who gave away the store, or a team that just freezes like a deer in the headlights?

You’re absolutely right that this calls for a lot of speculation so this is a straight up wild guess.  I’ll say Edmonton.

I know, I know, cap space is extremely limited for them.  But this is a team that is squarely in win-now mode.  As they’re currently constructed, I don’t think they’re good enough to make a deep run.

The time has come to part with Jesse Puljujarvi.  Take the best offer available and get it over with.  Everyone knows it isn’t going to be pretty but he is not going to be the type of player that can be added to an offer that drastically increases its value.  At least I don’t think it will.  Running with a minimum-sized roster and relying on cap-exempt recalls when they play short a player isn’t an ideal situation.  It shouldn’t have come to it in the first place so this is already strike one in my book.

Goaltending is still a concern for this team even after going and locking up a long-term fixture in Jack Campbell.  Between that and the extension for Stuart Skinner, they’ll be hard-pressed to upgrade.  But they need to.  Defensively, they could use some more stability and offensively, some depth scoring wouldn’t hurt.  But they’ll be lucky to tick one of these boxes.

It’s not really fair of me to be critical (in advance, no less) of Edmonton’s deadline as they don’t have the ability to do a whole lot.  But GM Ken Holland has put them in this situation so it’s up to him to find a way to shore up this roster.  Otherwise, it will be a blown opportunity, especially with talent heading out East, leaving the Western Conference up for grabs.