Free Agent Stock Watch: Right Wingers

With the new year upon us, the NHL season is in full swing. Teams are jockeying for playoff position, and many players with expiring contracts across the NHL are playing games that could ultimately determine what type of payday they might receive in the summer.

In a multi-part series, we’ll take a look at each position group of the upcoming free agent class, and do a rundown on how those upcoming unrestricted free agents have performed this year. Which players have increased their odds of landing a massive contract? Which players have potentially hurt their earning potential with their play? We’ll break it all down here.

The Marquee Names

David Pastrnak, Boston Bruins

With a Rocket Richard in his back pocket and a half-decade of play at or above the point-per-game mark on his resume, Pastrnak is the great jewel of next summer’s free agent class.

He’s one of the best wingers in all of hockey, period. He scored 40 goals and 77 points last season and this year, he’s scoring at a 57-goal, 114-point pace.

Helping Czech countryman David Krejci make an instant impact upon his return to the NHL, Pastrnak is the type of winger who is a playmaking center’s dream. The Bruins have been the best team in the NHL so far this year, and a major reason for that success has been Pastrnak.

While the Bruins have in the past signed their forwards to team-friendly contract extensions arguably below the signing player’s true market value, they should be willing to go to extreme lengths to get Pastrnak signed to a long-term deal.

Patrick Kane, Chicago Blackhawks

Kane is one of the greatest players of this generation of hockey and his exploits during this era of Blackhawks hockey, a golden era for one of the league’s original six franchises, have made him into a Chicago sports icon.

He’s also having his least-productive season in a half-decade as the team around him has been stripped for parts and sent away in order for the team to be able to amass a stockpile of draft picks and prospects.

As a result, it’s easy to say Kane’s stock is down from where it once was. That assessment isn’t without its merit, as Kane normally cruises past the point-per-game threshold, and hasn’t done so this season.

But it’s likely that Kane will remain one of the most sought-after players in free agency, and it’s unlikely that a small downturn in production will reduce the line of motivated suitors he’ll have to sift through next summer.

And if Kane ends up traded to a contending team, where he promptly returns to his prior form and leads them on a long playoff run, his slower-than-usual start to the year will be an afterthought.

We’re not at that point yet, though. Kane’s form on this talent-deficient Blackhawks team may put the faintest thought in some teams’ heads that maybe the 34-year-old star is finally showing some age-related decline.

Vladimir Tarasenko, St. Louis Blues

Just a few short years ago, Tarasenko’s career seemed to be somewhat in peril. The superstar forward had missed major time due to shoulder surgeries and had played in just 34 games over the span of two seasons.

Tarasenko got the chance to be a healthy member of the Blues’ lineup once again in 2021-22, and he went out and had the best campaign of his career.

He scored 34 goals and 82 points in 75 games, the first time in his NHL career that he crossed the point-per-game mark.

This year, it’s been more of the same. While the Blues themselves have struggled mightily to play with any sort of consistency, Tarasenko has been solid, scoring 29 points in 34 games.

Tarasenko just turned 31 years old, and should be a coveted option for teams looking to add a star scorer on the open market, should the Blues allow him to get there.

The Solid Contributors

Alex Killorn, Tampa Bay Lightning

Through his hard work, durability, and consistency, Killorn has been one of the most valuable “glue” players on the Lightning. He’s played a consistent role since he was a rookie in 2012-13, and has been reliable to score at least at a 40-point pace each year.

More recently, Killorn’s offensive production has ticked up, as he has 117 points in his last 173 games, a 55-point pace. Playing on both special teams units, Killorn is the type of consistent all-around presence that coaches adore.

With some significant pay raises set to kick in next year, it doesn’t look like the Lightning will be able to offer Killorn the type of contract extension that could match the offers he’d receive on the open market.

At the age of 33, Killorn doesn’t represent a youthful investment for interested teams. But he has two Stanley Cup rings, significant playoff experience, brings off-ice leadership value, and has seen his scoring numbers increase in recent years.

He may not bring the star power of the three names listed above him, but Killorn still has his valued place in next summer’s free agent class.

Conor Sheary, Washington Capitals

Standing at just five-foot-nine, 180 pounds, Sheary doesn’t bring the sort of physical dimension to his game that Killorn offers. But the undrafted product has some similarities to Killorn that will benefit him on the open market.

First and foremost, he’s a two-time Stanley Cup champion. While that’s a team accomplishment first and foremost, teams have valued free agents with that championship pedigree.

Sheary’s offensive numbers have also ticked up in recent years, going from 22 points in 2020-21 to 43 in 2021-22 and 26 in 39 games so far this year. He also contributes on both the power play and penalty kill, another similarity to Killorn.

Those factors will all help Sheary either land a solid contract extension with the Capitals or garner interest on the open market. While Sheary hasn’t always been the most consistent producer and at 30 years old isn’t young anymore, he’s been a valuable member of the Capitals and his stock is up as a result.

Gustav Nyquist, Columbus Blue Jackets

Nyquist, 33, has been a quality second-line scoring option for many years now. Arriving in Columbus on a $5.5MM AAV deal, Nyquist provided the Blue Jackets with a 42-point season (in 70 games) and a 53-point campaign. That’s healthy, reasonable production that didn’t set the world on fire but also didn’t leave Blue Jackets fans with very much buyer’s remorse.

Blue Jackets GM Jarmo Kekalainen paid for Nyquist knowing exactly what he’d receive, and Nyquist has largely held up his end of the bargain.

Nyquist’s scoring rate has admittedly slowed down from last season, as he’s on pace for 42 points, but that’s still not out of line with what he posted in his first year in Ohio.

Nyquist still plays on both the Blue Jackets’ power play and penalty kill, and while Columbus has struggled mightily, it’s difficult to pin significant blame on Nyquist’s shoulders.

If he enters the open market, the relatively minor but still notable decline in his offensive production could cost him some money on his next deal. He’ll still remain a reasonable option for any team looking to fortify its middle-six, though.

Connor Brown, Washington Capitals

Brown received some horrible news as he was just beginning his free agency platform season, as he tore his ACL in his right knee and had to undergo surgery in order to repair it.

The injury in all likelihood turned this 2021-22 campaign into a lost one for Brown, who could have put forth a convincing platform year in advance of his first trip to unrestricted free agency.

The 28-year-old winger provides all-situations value for his team, able to serve as a valuable defensive contributor as well as a complementary offensive piece.

This significant injury injects some uncertainty into his free agent profile. What Brown offers on the ice is normally quite consistent and clear, but now as he’s recovering from a major injury teams may hold off on making a long-term investment until they can see how well he fares when he comes back.

The Role Players

Corey Perry, Tampa Bay Lightning

Perry, now 37 years old, isn’t what he once was as a player. The 2010-11 Hart Trophy winner won’t be able to lead his team in scoring, but if there’s anything he’s shown in the past few years, it’s that his declining physical talents won’t stop him from being a valuable contributor to his club.

Perry scored 19 goals and 40 points last season, helping the Lightning reach the Stanley Cup final. This year, he has 14 points in 35 games.

While he’s gotten slower and isn’t quite able to match the physical intensity he once played with, Perry’s slick hands and smooth puck skills remain an asset.

He’s helped the Canadiens and Lightning in recent years as a net-front presence on the power play, and even though he’s not scoring at a 40-point pace this year, if he can finish in the mid-thirties in terms of points his stock heading to free agency will likely go unscathed.

Jesper Fast, Carolina Hurricanes

Fast is the sort of winger whose free agency could go one of two ways. On one hand, the veteran Swede scored 14 goals and 34 points last year and is a valued two-way presence who chips in on the penalty kill. He brings a valuable set of skills to the table, and could land a nice contract as a result.

On the other hand, Fast is the sort of middle-class free agent who could be squeezed by the salary cap remaining relatively flat for another season. While his overall profile is certainly valuable, he plays best in the sort of bottom-six role many teams may prefer to fill with a cheap internal option.

All Fast can do himself is continue to play well. If he can reach the 15-goal, 35-point marks he just missed out on last season, he’ll have his fair share of suitors on the open market.

Evan Rodrigues, Colorado Avalanche

Rodrigues lingered on the open market quite a bit longer than many might have anticipated, signing a contract with the Avalanche in September. He was coming off of a season where he scored 19 goals and 43 points, and many believed the $2MM guarantee he received to be not a fair reflection of his overall value.

This year, Rodrigues started off a bit slow and dealt with an injury, but has really started to heat up more recently. He has five points in his last four games, bringing his season-long total up to 16 points in 26 games. That’s a 50-point pace, and he’s done that while also chipping in on the Avalanche’s penalty kill.

If he can continue to score at a reasonable rate and help the Avalanche make a playoff run, he could have a more fruitful trip to the market than he had last year. As of right now, with Rodrigues on a hot streak, it’s hard to say his stock is anything but up.

Phil Kessel, Vegas Golden Knights

Kessel is an interesting case. He’s accomplished just about everything he’d likely want to accomplish in his NHL career, having won two Stanley Cups and becoming the NHL’s reigning “iron man.”

He signed a cheap one-year deal with the Golden Knights in the summer, and it’s clear that he’s reaching the tail end of what has been a fantastic run in the NHL. Kessel is on pace to score just 30 points, and his longstanding defensive issues have forced the Golden Knights to play him in a sheltered offensive role.

If Kessel can go on a second-half tear, it’s possible that performance could keep him in the NHL for another year. But based on how things are looking, it’s going to be a challenge for Kessel to find a deep market of teams interested in adding him next summer for his age-36 season.

Others Of Note

Jimmy Vesey, New York Rangers

Vesey’s second go-around on Broadway has been decent, with the 29-year-old’s true NHL role now far more clear. He’s no longer miscast as a top-scoring prospect, and in a more focused role, he’s excelled.

Vesey is scoring at a 27-point pace and is helping out as a second-unit penalty-killer on the Rangers’ above-average shorthanded unit. He’s providing competent, if decidedly no-frills bottom-six play in New York, and as long as he isn’t asked by coach Gerard Gallant to play higher in the lineup than he’s capable of, he’ll likely continue to impress.

Making just $750K after spending the preseason on a PTO, Vesey is providing competent, cheap bottom-six play, and is the sort of cheap role player any contender in a cap league could use.

If he hits free agency next summer his market is unlikely to be robust, but if he keeps playing the way he’s playing he may not have to settle for a PTO for a second-straight year.

Vladislav Namestnikov, Tampa Bay Lightning

Another veteran winger on his second tour of duty with the first club he ever played with, Namestnikov has provided decent fourth-line play for the Lightning.

He’s scored 11 points in 34 games, although that number could be a decent bit higher if he had any shooting luck. (his 4% shooting percentage this year is a steep decline from the 17.6% mark he posted last year)

Namestnikov has spent time on both of coach Jon Cooper’s special teams units, although his role hasn’t been extensive.

His declined shooting percentage means his offensive production is down, but Namestnikov is nonetheless a trusted veteran forward who should continue to play well enough to earn another NHL deal, even if it’s not quite at the $2.5MM cap hit he costs this year.

Garnet Hathaway, Washington Capitals

A grinder through and through, Hathaway has been a regular face in his team’s NHL lineup since 2017-18. Last year, Hathaway’s offensive production got a bump, and he finished with 14 goals and 26 points in 76 games.

He scored those 14 goals with virtually no power play time, and his 26-point performance was the best of his career. This season, Hathaway hasn’t been as good on offense, and he’s on pace for just eight goals and 21 points.

Hathaway’s game away from the puck remains solid, though. He’s a leading penalty killer for Washington, helping their kill rank inside the league’s top ten.

Even if his offense doesn’t quite reach the heights it did last year, the 31-year-old Hathaway is still playing well enough to garner some interest on the open market.

Pierre Engvall, Toronto Maple Leafs

After scoring 15 goals and 35 points last season, Engvall’s start to this year was a bit underwhelming. More recently, though, Engvall has heated up. He’s got eight points in his last nine games, including a five-game points streak.

That’s brought his overall scoring pace this season up to a 16-goal, 33-point pace, which is right around where he was last year.

Obviously, it’s highly unlikely that Engvall will be able to sustain his current hot streak. But if he can manage to score around the 15-goal, 35-point mark, he’ll be in a great place entering the open market.

At just 27 years old, he’ll be a younger option than many other teams will be considering, and standing six-foot-five, 220 pounds, he brings intriguing size to the table as well.

Trevor Lewis, Calgary Flames

At this point in his career, we know what Lewis, a two-time Stanley Cup champion, brings to the table. A trusted bottom-sixer of head coach Darryl Sutter, Lewis has been a constant presence on the Flames’ penalty kill for the past two seasons.

Lewis helped Sutter’s shorthanded unit to a top-six finish last year, and playing in a fourth-line role he’s been crucial in helping Sutter establish his desired culture in Calgary. He doesn’t score much (he notched just 16 points last year) but he brings many other valued skills to the table.

His points production has actually ticked up this year (he’s on pace to score 26 points) but the Flames have regressed as an overall unit. He’ll turn 36 next week, and will likely remain at Sutter’s side in Calgary beyond this season rather than take a trip to the open market.

Patric Hornqvist, Florida Panthers

While Hornqvist has been a crucial culture-builder and locker-room presence for the Panthers, a club that won the President’s Trophy last season, his on-ice value has eroded considerably.

The 36-year-old scored 11 goals and 28 points in 65 games last year, which rounds out to a 14-goal, 35-point pace. That’s not bad by any means, but it’s not quite the 32 points in 44 games he posted in his first year in South Florida.

This season, the production has totally bottomed out for Hornqvist, and he has just three points in 22 games. Hornqvist has been sidelined since early December with a concussion, an injury that has thus far cost him an opportunity to go on a hot stretch and improve his box score numbers.

While Hornqvist’s leadership and physicality make him a candidate to receive a contract next summer, it’s difficult to ignore the steep decline in his offensive numbers.