As we approach the end of the year, PHR continues its look at what teams are thankful for in 2022-23. There also might be a few things your team would like down the road. We’ll examine what’s gone well in the early going and what could improve as the season rolls on for the Washington Capitals.
Who are the Capitals thankful for?
Charlie Lindgren, Dylan Strome, and Sonny Milano
Yes, the Washington Capitals are absolutely thankful for Alex Ovechkin, the current team leader in goals and points this season by a wide margin and the greatest player in the history of the franchise. They’ve been thankful for Ovechkin since he debuted back in 2005. We’ll get to the Great Eight further down, but first we’ll take a look at a trio of players who have come somewhat out of nowhere to help keep the team in the playoff race.
Signed to a three-year deal carrying a $1.1MM AAV this summer to backup fellow newcomer Darcy Kuemper, Lindgren had been off to a solid start to the year before Kuemper went down with injury. Kuemper has since come back, but in the nearly three weeks he was out, Lindgren stepped up to the plate, starting every game and carrying the team to a 7-1-0 record with a .930 save-percentage. Lindgren hasn’t been that hot the entire season, but his overall numbers, a .913 save-percentage and 2.60 goals-against average are nearly identical to Kuemper’s .916 and 2.53 on the year.
Sitting third on the team in points with 25 through 36 games, Strome’s success isn’t exactly unprecedented. In fact, the forward had 48 points in 69 games last season and even hit a career-high of 57 over 78 games back in 2018-19. However, after a disappointing 2020-21, followed by struggles early last season under then-head coach Jeremy Colliton with the Chicago Blackhawks before the rebound, Chicago failed to qualify Strome this summer, making him an unrestricted free agent. Washington took a chance on the 25-year-old, signing him to a one-year, $3.5MM deal. Strome hasn’t disappointed, on pace to match his career-high in points while displaying excellent possession metrics.
After the Anaheim Ducks failed to qualify him, Sonny Milano was left an unrestricted free agent much like Strome. Coming off a breakout season, the former first-round pick waited most of the summer for an opportunity before the Calgary Flames offered him a PTO, from which he was later released. The Capitals gave Milano a chance, signing him to a one-year, one-way league minimum deal on October 15th, calling him up November 2nd. In that time, the winger has done more than simply impress, recording 16 points in 23 games for the Capitals. It’s a very good season, on pace to be Milano’s best, but not necessarily groundbreaking. However, in a year that has yet to feature Nicklas Backstrom or Tom Wilson, getting this level of production out of Milano, and Strome for that matter, has been much appreciated in Washington.
What are the Capitals thankful for?
Ovechkin’s Chase for 895
There’s plenty to be thankful for with Ovechkin, not only in what he’s meant to the franchise and his success year after year, but simply in this season. As the team just about hangs on in the playoff race, Ovechkin has done his best to carry the team through. The players mentioned above, among others, have done their part, but of course Ovechkin’s game-breaking ability to score goals has been a difference-maker.
What the Capitals can also be thankful, related to Ovechkin, is the decision not to rebuild until Ovechkin breaks Wayne Gretzky’s all-time goals record of 894. Though some may say it’s time for the Capitals to shake things up and hit the reset button, Washington has ensured that they will do all in their power to chase the Stanley Cup for at least a couple more seasons. It’s an interesting decision, but given the organization’s ability to remain competitive for the better part of the last 15 years and Ovechkin still performing at or near the top of his ability, it’s an exciting one for those involved.
Not to be forgotten is Ovechkin’s high-level of competitiveness and graceful aging. It’s hard to imagine many elite athletes would continue to play without being competitive, but if the team is going to hold off on a rebuild while Ovechkin continues the chase, at least another 93 goals, Ovechkin will need to continue to be the elite shooter and physical power forward he’s been all these years, and there doesn’t appear to be much getting in the way of any of that.
What would the Capitals be even more thankful for?
Health
The big story this season when it comes to Capitals injuries would be Backstrom and Wilson, neither of whom have played a game this year. That was expected going into this season, and Washington acted accordingly, signing players like Strome, Milano, and Marcus Johansson to fill the void. Although Wilson is expected to return to the lineup at some point this season, and perhaps not far off, Backstrom’s availability for this season and long-term, remains in question.
Beyond that pair, Washington has also had a number of smaller-scale injuries that have impacted them this season, including players like T. J. Oshie, Dmitry Orlov, and Martin Fehervary missing at least 10 games, and Connor Brown playing in only four games thus far. Superstar defenseman John Carlson, who has already missed six games, is expected to miss a considerable amount more after taking a slapshot to his head a few days ago.
Backstrom and Wilson are one thing for the Capitals, but getting the rest of their lineup back to full health and keeping them there has been a challenge this year, and part of the reason the team is in a playoff fight, and not a comfortable playoff position.
What should be on the Capitals holiday wishlist?
A return of Wilson and Backstrom and/or a top-six forward
Besides overall health, Washington has a pretty clear need for at least another top-six forward. As discussed, they should get a boost when Wilson eventually returns to the lineup, but even still, the depth there is lacking. Coming into tonight, Ovechkin was not only the team leader in points, but his 41 points are 13 ahead of Evgeny Kuznetsov’s 28. Strome and Milano have had fantastic seasons thus far, but both may be better suited for secondary scoring roles if the team does indeed envision playoff success.
Complicating things for Washington would be whether or not Backstrom returns this season. With Backstrom now skating, a return by season’s end appears plausible, though not guaranteed. If the veteran is fully healthy and able to play like himself, that would solve the need for another top-six forward no problem. However, Backstrom’s injury issues, and the surgery that dealt with them, were rather significant and whether he can return to the player he was in the past, regardless of age, is perhaps a bigger question than whether he can return in the first place.
The main issue though is Backstrom’s $9MM cap hit. If and when he returns, that number comes off of LTIR and begins to count against Washington’s cap. The Capitals will, presumably, work that issue out when it comes time, but they might not be able to accommodate another even remotely large cap hit, like a Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, or Bo Horvat, even with salary retained. A trade in that situation might not be impossible, but knowing whether or not Backstrom is going to be a factor down the stretch will make a huge impact on if and how a deal would get done.
(This is a long post, sorry in advance.)
My only comments wrt putting Ovechkin’s record above the needs of the team is that it’s going to be harder to rebuild when all your biggest trade chips now are going to be 2-3 years older and will have lost a non-trivial amount of their value. This is assuming no unforeseen injuries or decline to Ovechkin.
The team has found new life I didn’t think they had this season which may end up getting them into the playoffs again, but can the team really contend that they are competing for a cup just by making the playoffs and getting nothing done once they get there? You can say you’re “chasing the Stanley Cup” all you want, but the question is are you really doing that with four first round exits in a row? Is this team really good enough to beat the best teams in the league in a seven game series not once, but four straight series? I highly doubt that is the case.
As this writeup points out, Backstrom’s salary potentially coming back on the books will be a huge impediment to maintaining a competitive team with so many high priced players on the roster. Will there still be room for guys like Brown, Milano and Strome? The latter two have been incredible additions as has Lindgren. I doubt players will be willing to take pay cuts to give the team some cap room to keep these players or sign others.
I guess the point is that putting one player above the team will most likely ultimately hurt the team and it will also hurt Ovechkin’s quest for the record if the team around him is subpar. He’s not getting any younger, he needs a good team around him not only to get the record but for this team to have even the remotest of remote chances of getting past the second round of the playoffs much less being able to beat a team like the Avalanche in the finals.
You can say you’re chasing the Cup all you want, but the results have to show that this is a serious claim as opposed to just paying lip service to fans while you put one player above the team. Ovechkin is going to be Ovechkin no matter what. The better team around him, the faster he’ll get there and the further into the 900’s he’ll get and the better this team’s prospects are going forward. Even in the case of Ovechkin, I disagree with the team’s decision to put him above the overall competitive needs of the team.
There is enough trade value on this team that doing a shake up wouldn’t hurt that much with the pieces you’d get back. The team would likely be competitive again very soon if not the very first season of the rebuild. If the need exists for this kind of plan, every year the can gets kicked down the road just adds on to the rebuilding time the team will have to endure when the decision is finally made.
So, I don’t necessarily consider this plan to be something fans should be thankful for. Fans want to see a team that is legitimately capable of contending for and winning a Stanley Cup. The team we’ve seen the last four years and especially the last two is not an example of such a team. Fans will not be thankful if we have nothing to rebuild with once the team decides to do what needs to be done and have to endure multiple non-competitive seasons (5+) before the Capitals are relevant again.
I appreciate this long post as this was the very mindset I wanted to rail against…
There is this weird notion, likely Moneyball-induced, that unless a team is at the peak of a championship window, they should always tear everything down and be awful.
That ALL TIME players should be discarded the instant they cannot deliver that. I saw it here with the Yinzgrates regarding our big 3.
Alex Ovechkin is the ONLY Washington Capital in NHL history who ever really mattered.
The core he led with Backstrom, Carlson, Oshie, etc. delivered the ONLY Cup the Caps have won OR MIGHT EVER WIN. How long did that one take? How irrelevant were they until Ovie came along 31 years into their existence?
He is near certain to break one of the most important records in the history of the sport, but sure, kick him to the curb or surround him with futile scrubs so you can get a better pick.
The analytics say it’s smart, right? What has he done for you lately, right?
OR
Maybe it’s part of the “if only the morons who ran the team I root for did X, Y and Z, they would contend EVERY YEAR” spiel that people who don’t understand how windows of contention actually work like to believe.
When you have all time greats who have won the big one for you (or thrice, in some cases) and are still chasing even further all time greatness some might argue that you should enjoy every bit of it while it lasts because more likely than not (especially with 32 teams now) your next core won’t sniff the success of the one you want to jettison.
I think you misunderstand me somewhat. No one is throwing Ovechkin to the curb or anything of the sort. The team has enough trade value that “a team of scrubs” isn’t what you’d end up with. If you do, it means you’re terrible at trades. However, a team of scrubs is what you do end up with if you choose to apply band-aid solutions to these problems for a long enough period of time. You end up with no significant value in any tradeable assets. The Capitals don’t have much in their system either.
I disagree with ruining the team for many years for Alex Ovechkin which is what would almost certainly happen if the team waits 2-3 years or longer to do this. It’s an old team that is already showing durability issues, so what are the chances this team stays in one piece long enough to prevent this team becoming a team of “futile scrubs”? Are the durability issues going to improve with age? Not everyone can be Jagr or Ovechkin.
Furthermore, I don’t think such a strategy is necessary for Ovie to get the record and may even ultimately end up hurting those chances. Oshie can’t even stay on the ice anymore. Backstrom may never be the guy he once was and that’s if he’s able to come back. How confident are you that Carlson isn’t entering the same injury prone phase as well? He had injury problems last year that he played through and missed some time this year though I’m not counting the recent injury.
Almost the entire core that won the Cup here are falling apart. What are we going to be left with? That team of futile scrubs you mentioned before. It’s not like the team has a lot of cap room to play with unless Backstrom is done for good. If he comes back as a lesser player and limps through a few more seasons, that’s gonna hurt the team even more.
All I am saying is trading away some of the value the team has to boost the team’s future prospects (both near and distant) is good for both the team and Ovechkin. Betting that this aging core is going to be able to stay on the ice much less perform at a high enough level to justify any claim of “we’re trying to win a Cup” is a lofty ask. If they can’t stay healthy, are the scrubs gonna give Ovechkin enough assists to score those goals?
The value we do have would bring back returns far greater than “futile scrubs” and I’m puzzled as to why you think that would be the case. That is, however, what we will end up with if we do nothing and let this play out as is. It’s not necessary for Ovechkin to get the record and probably detrimental in the long term. Just don’t tell me you’re trying to win a Cup because that’s not what this team is doing.
“The value we do have would bring back returns far greater than “futile scrubs” and I’m puzzled as to why you think that would be the case.”
“Almost the entire core that won the Cup here are falling apart.”
Kuznetsov has value. Carlson still has value as an elite offensive defenseman, but that value will decline every year and gaining a reputation as injury prone would kill it. Sheary has value. Oshie still has value as at least half of his value is his presence in the locker room. When he does manage to stay on the ice, he doesn’t seem to have lost much. He still has value, just not as a core piece of a championship team. He definitely adds value to a team that already has their core in place. Orlov has value though I’m not sure I would deal him unless I got a really good deal. Eller would even bring back something especially with him playing better this season.
Not saying all of these guys should be dealt, but there’s plenty of value there and if the GM is any good at all, he gets a really good head start in building a new core out of that.
I wouldn’t move Wilson. So yes, you can expect a hell of a lot better than scrubs from this. At least most of what you’d get would be on the way up instead of on the way down.
Bottom line is the Caps have drafted poorly for the last several years. Once Ovie is gone burn it down, but until then just enjoy the road to 895. There will be no cup so 895 is the team prize.
It would be even better with a Cup though. I disagree with the framing that this is some kind of either/or situation instead of a “let’s do both” situation. There’s no reason why that can’t happen.
I hope they prove me wrong on all my criticisms.
Deport Ovechkin so he can go back and shine Putin’s shoes.