PHR Mailbag: Predators, Predictions, Toews, Worst Contracts, Coyotes, Wild

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include what it might cost Boston to add a key rental center, the worst contracts in the NHL by position, Arizona’s trade deadline situation, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in next weekend’s mailbag.

Gbear: Easy one here: The Preds offense from their forward group is dreadful. Do you see Poile making any moves to add scoring help or is it the same old story in Nashville?

I think it’s the same old story for the Predators.  They have a veteran-laden team that isn’t good enough to truly be a contender nor are they bad enough to have justification for blowing it all up.  Quite frankly, even if they wanted to blow it up, I don’t think they could as moving money in this cap environment is very tough.  There are some bloated contracts that don’t have a lot of trade value at the moment.

There was some risk in Nashville’s offseason moves in that it suggested they felt last year’s offensive production was repeatable.  I doubt many others saw it the same way.  I won’t criticize GM David Poile for the moves he did make (getting Ryan McDonagh for next to nothing and signing Nino Niederreiter) because it didn’t really cost them anything in assets.  All in all, they were relatively low-risk even with McDonagh’s contract.

But those moves cemented that their goal seemed to be squeaking into the playoffs and see what happens from there.  And, let’s face it, you don’t have to look very far to find a team that squeaked into the postseason and made it all the way to the Cup Final.  It’s not necessarily a viable strategy but it works enough that some teams want to try it with the odd one going on a run.

So, with that in mind, I don’t see many big changes coming one way or the other.  They’re six points out but have games in hand on almost everyone ahead of them.  Knowing where they are, any improvements are likely to be low-risk, low-cost incremental ones; if they didn’t commit to big upgrades last summer, they’re not doing it now.  On the seller side, they’re not exactly loaded with expiring deals that other teams are going to want in early March.  I suspect they’ll wait things out for a while and then take a tiny step whether it’s as a buyer or seller.  Nothing too exciting, I know, but I don’t see any big splash on the horizon for them.

The Duke: All-knowing, -seeing and -prognosticating Snow Globe (hey, it’s Christmastime), please soothsay the following: 1. Long-term, UPL, Portillo, or Levi? 2. Where does Tarasenko land – and in this season or next? 3. Brighter scoring future: Ruzicka, Holtz, or Kent Johnson? BONUS Q: What season does Askarov arrive in Smashville? Merry Christmas – and Happy New Year!

I don’t know why but I feel a bit more shaken up than usual following this question…

1) Assuming you mean who the long-term starter in Buffalo is going to be, let’s go with Devon Levi if I have to pick one of those three.  I think Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen can be a capable NHL goalie but he might be more of a platoon option than a true starter.  Erik Portillo is no guarantee to sign with the Sabres so it’s hard to pick him for this question either.  Levi might be more of a platoon option himself (if he and Luukkonen form a serviceable tandem, that could work out great for Buffalo) but at this point, I’d say he has the best long-term upside for the Sabres so he gets the nod by default.

2) The unstated question here is will the Blues want to sell?  If they don’t, I don’t think Tarasenko moves this season.  That call won’t be made for at least six more weeks but if they keep playing at this level, I’ll say they will sell and thus, he will move this season.  I know the Rangers seem to be the expected landing spot for Patrick Kane but if they want to do a move that doesn’t necessarily require double retention, this might be the one.  Plus, for some reason, I can hear Sam Rosen calling “Vladimir Tarasenko – It’s a Power Play Goal!” in my head and it sounds fitting.  Let’s go with Tarasenko to the Rangers at the deadline.

3) I’ll take Alexander Holtz.  This year has been a complete write-off and I’m not at all a fan of how the Devils have handled him.  Scorers need to score and sitting a top prospect for numerous games in between playing him on the fourth line isn’t helping anyone.  However, he’s the one player on this list who still has top-line upside in my books (Johnson is more of a second liner and Ruzicka is still trying to become a full-fledged regular) so that gives him the nod.

Bonus) 2024-25.  That’s Juuse Saros’ final year under contract and the Predators will want to know if Yaroslav Askarov is ready to be a starter so quickly, whether he’s more of a backup at that point, or if he’s an NHL goalie altogether.  Right now, he needs as many games as possible so I don’t think they’ll want him up (barring injuries) this season or next.

@dajc: What do you think it’s going to take to get Jonathan Toews into a Bruin jersey?

When I first saw this question, I questioned if strengthening a fairly strong spot would be Boston’s best course of action.  However, if Toews was anchoring a two-way checking line in the playoffs, that would give them a huge boost.  Making it work, however, will be a bit tricky.

Let’s get the easy part out of the way first.  They will need a third team to retain so that they’re only taking on 25% of Toews’ $10.5MM AAV.  If we look back at the few examples of those types of deals, you’re probably looking at a third-rounder, maybe a second if there were a few teams with similar offers on the table.  What works in Boston’s favor here is that Toews only has a base salary of $2.9MM so the actual cash outlay for the third team that they’re trying to incentivize to retain would be fairly minimal but they will have to part with a decent draft pick to get their cap charge down to $2.625MM.

As for what they’d need to send to Chicago, it’s likely to involve a first-round pick.  Toews isn’t the top center he once was but he still has 11 goals this season, is simply elite at the faceoff dot (65.6%), and can play in all situations.  Moving someone like Craig Smith solves the cap issue; they’d actually free up some cap space even by throwing him in.  I think there’s a secondary element that needs to go in there as well, a decent prospect.  Marc McLaughlin comes to mind as a near NHL-ready center that they might want to target.  Boston might not want to move him but they’ll need to incentivize Chicago to take Smith’s contract.

The good news for the Bruins here is that the rental center market is deeper than usual so Toews shouldn’t command the top return.  That should be Bo Horvat as things stand barring a late change of heart in Vancouver (which could very well happen).  But Boston won’t get Toews for cheap either but a package of a first-rounder, Smith, McLaughlin, and a third-rounder (to a third team) might be enough, particularly if that’s where Toews indicates he wants to go.  Like Claude Giroux last season with the Flyers, his preferred destination(s) will largely dictate which Chicago can or can’t get for him.

Nha Trang: Okay, I actually do have a question, I fibbed: who would you tab as the worst regular players in the league in terms of value to salary at forward, defense and goal? (Not counting LTIR types — obviously Montreal’s got the short end of the stick with Price there.)

First, thanks for the kind words that preceded your question from the callout for questions.

Forward: Tyler Seguin – Dallas committed franchise player money to Seguin, a player who hasn’t averaged over a point per game since 2015-16.  He’s still a capable player but he is more of a second liner at this point of his career and by the time this contract ends, he’ll probably be lower on the depth chart.  He has four years left after this one at $9.85MM and as Dallas looks to try to retain and enhance its core, this is the type of contract that will make doing that considerably more difficult.

Defense: Marc-Edouard Vlasic – His deal certainly isn’t the priciest (he’s tied for 24th among AAVs for blueliners) but it has been a few years since he has been the true shutdown defender he was in his prime.  Frankly, it has been a few years since he has been much more than a replacement-level rearguard.  He turns 36 in March and still has three years left at $7MM per season.  That’s not good when his play has gone downhill in a hurry.  There are other more expensive veterans on bad deals, sure, but those players are least still providing some on-ice value.  I don’t think Vlasic will be anytime soon.

Goalie: Sergei Bobrovsky – He’s the second-highest-paid goalie in NHL history behind Carey Price.  For that, the Panthers were expecting to get high-end goaltending, the type that you can rely on to carry you to big things.  Well, this season, Bobrovsky is below-average in GAA and SV%.  If he was making $2MM, that would be one thing.  But he’s not making $2MM.  He’s making $10MM this season and for three years after that.  Spencer Knight is close to taking away the number one job and when that happens, Florida will have an untradeable backup that makes more money than what the majority of the league is spending on their goalie tandems.

Coyotes1: Hello, who do you think the Arizona Coyotes will try to acquire? Like Mike Reilly, Nikita Zaitsev, and Philippe Myers, are there any others that come to mind? What can they get for Shayne Gostisbehere, Nick Bjugstad, and Nick Ritchie? Thank you and have a good day!!

Of the three possible acquisitions you listed, only Reilly fits for me this season.  Zaitsev has a $2MM signing bonus due in the summer, then he might be on their radar.  I don’t see Tampa Bay moving Myers since they extended him after acquiring him; he fits in their future plans at a much lower price tag.

As for who else could be on their radar, Tyler Myers is an option next summer when his $5MM bonus is paid off.  Marco Scandella next season would be an option as well although the Blues will likely hold onto him this year and use his LTIR.  I like Kasperi Kapanen as a target for them as a possible buy low, sell high(ish) type of move while his speed fits in with how they’re trying to play now.  If Dallas wants to make a splash and Denis Gurianov is back from his personal leave, that might be an option as well.  I could see their activity this season being more in the third-party facilitator type rather than adding a specific player.

I’m going to change the order of your trade candidates around a little bit.  Bjugstad’s value is minimal as he’s a 12th or 13th forward that isn’t a specialist.  Those players go for late-round picks if they move at all.  Ritchie’s value might be a bit better but at $2.5MM and his track record of inconsistency, he’s the type of player a team might pivot to if everything else falls through and tosses them a mid-round pick.  Gostisbehere is the interesting one.  Assuming the Coyotes retain 50% here, I could see them getting a second-rounder.  Considering they were paid a second-rounder to take him off Philadelphia’s hands, flipping him for another second would be a nice piece of business for GM Bill Armstrong.

Zakis: With the Wild in no man’s land, do they buy, sell, or stand pat at the trade deadline? They seemingly have no long-term direction.

I wouldn’t necessarily say they’re in no man’s land.  They’re three points out of second in the division with a game in hand.  Sure, they’re not in top contention but I’d put a team like Nashville in no man’s land territory, not Minnesota.  As for their direction, they’re trying to win now despite carrying more than $12MM in dead money with their buyouts.  When you’re a team that’s essentially spending closer to the cap floor on actual players, it’s hard to be dominant.

I expect they are going to buy and sell.  If they can’t afford to re-sign Mathew Dumba, then they’d be wise to try to move him.  I expect such a move would be coupled with a second swap to bring in a longer-term replacement on the back end as losing a key blueliner for nothing is hardly ideal.  I also expect them to try to shore up their depth at a minimum and as a playoff team that has banked a lot of cap space, they will have plenty more options than some of their competitors.  Those additions will almost certainly need to be limited to rentals, however.

Speaking of that cap space, what they have makes them a team to watch for.  If someone wants to strike early, they’ll need to have the cap room to do so.  Many playoff teams don’t but the Wild do.  If GM Bill Guerin wants to strike, he can do it pretty much right away.  I’m curious to see if they look to get a jump on the trade market as a result.

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