Free Agent Stock Watch: Left Wingers

With the new year fast approaching, the NHL season is in full swing. Teams are jockeying for playoff position, and many players with expiring contracts across the NHL are playing games that could ultimately determine what type of payday they might receive in the summer.

In a multi-part series, we’ll take a look at each position group of the upcoming free agent class, and do a rundown on how those upcoming unrestricted free agents have performed this year. Which players have increased their odds of landing a massive contract? Which players have potentially hurt their earning potential with their play? We’ll break it all down here.

The Marquee Names

Andrei Kuzmenko, Vancouver Canucks

The second-straight Canuck to headline free agency stock watch, Kuzmenko is not your traditional candidate to be a top-of-his-position-group free agent. But he certainly has the numbers to back up his case.

After a lengthy courting process this summer, the Canucks signed Kuzmenko to a one-year, $925K deal out of the KHL’s SKA St. Petersburg. Kuzmenko scored 53 points in 45 games in the KHL, and while the inevitable questions of whether his KHL numbers would translate persisted, he has silenced them so far this year.

Kuzmenko has been a rare bright spot in a Vancouver market that hasn’t had much fun in 2022-23, scoring 14 goals and 29 points in 32 games.

Kuzmenko has helped the Canucks’ power play convert on 26.6% of its opportunities on the man advantage, which ranks inside the league’s top ten.

But complicating the good vibes surrounding Kuzmenko’s success has been the potential contract standoff that looms. After re-signing J.T. Miller to a seven-year, $8MM AAV extension, the Canuckks have seemingly made re-organizing their cap balance sheet a priority.

That raises some questions. Do the Canucks have the financial bandwidth to compete with the many bidders Kuzmenko is likely to attract? If the Canucks want to retain Kuzmenko, does the cost of his extension necessitate trading Brock Boeser, even if his $6.65MM cap hit means the team’s received return in any deal could be a fraction of Boeser’s on-ice value?

The months leading up to the opening of free agency won’t be easy ones for Canucks management. Kuzmenko’s stock is soaring, and while the Canucks are reaping the benefits at the moment, it’s possible that his play is pricing him out of a long-term extension to stay in British Columbia.

Max Pacioretty, Carolina Hurricanes

While Pacioretty has 850 games of NHL experience under his belt, his trip to free agency next summer has the potential to be just as complicated as Kuzmenko’s. Why? because Pacioretty has yet to take the ice this season and make his Hurricanes debut.

Pacioretty underwent surgery to repair a torn Achilles this summer, and that has kept him from meaningfully altering his stock through his on-ice play. What could potentially threaten Pacioretty’s earning potential, beyond just not scoring much upon his return from injury, is what his trade from the Golden Knights said about his leaguewide value.

The extreme constraints some teams were feeling under the salary cap over the Summer was no secret, but the difficulties of the flat cap were made clear when Pacioretty, a six-time 30-goal scorer on an expiring contract, was dealt with a young defenseman in Dylan Coghlan for future considerations.

The Golden Knights seemingly did not value Pacioretty at his $7MM cap hit, and were so eager to clear his hit from their books that they parted with Coghlan in order to facilitate a deal, receiving nothing but cap flexibility in return.

If Pacioretty is seeking to avoid taking a pay cut this summer on a long-term deal, that trade likely didn’t help matters. His injury, by no fault of his own, only added to that declining stock.

A strong performance in Carolina, including maybe even a productive deep playoff run, could do wonders to rehabilitate Pacioretty’s stock before he hits free agency. But at this point, with his capabilities upon his return to the ice still a mystery, Pacioretty may be the biggest question mark of the entire upcoming free agent class.

The Solid Contributors

Tyler Bertuzzi, Detroit Red Wings

Speaking of question marks, Bertuzzi has, like Pacioretty, also dealt with his fair share of availability-related issues recently. Bertuzzi underwent back surgery in 2021 and recently underwent surgery once again.

He’s been limited to just nine games played this season, and has scored four points. Last year, though, Bertuzzi posted excellent production, ranking second on the Red Wings in points with 30 goals and 62 points in 68 games.

That version of Bertuzzi was in line to get paid. The hard-nosed winger plays the sort of agitating, skill-and-sandpaper game that GMs across the league greatly covet, and when adding his near point-per-game production to the mix, he was lining himself up for a massive payday.

His health issues have now complicated that and meant that his stock is trending down. He still has time to return to the ice and play well for a Red Wings team that looks poised to remain in the playoff hunt.

He’ll be 28 when free agency opens, meaning he represents a relatively young investment compared to the glut of in-their-thirties free agents that typically populate the market.

But until his health issues are put behind him and he returns to playing his valuable, unique (if sometimes controversial) style of game, his stock must be considered to be on the decline.

Michael Bunting, Toronto Maple Leafs

When Bunting hit unrestricted free agency two years ago, he wasn’t without teams interested in securing his services. Coming off of an impressive 21-game showing with the Arizona Coyotes, where he scored 10 goals in 21 games, Bunting could maybe have cultivated a small bidding war and simply taken the most lucrative (likely one-year) contract he was offered.

But instead of taking that route, the Scarborough, Ontario native prioritized fit, and with Zach Hyman set to exit Toronto, he chose to sign a two-year, $950k deal. Presumably, that contract offer was selected with the possibility of playing as the third wheel on Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner’s line in mind.

In 2021-22, Bunting was indeed placed on that line, and he promptly scored 23 goals and 63 points. This year has been more of the same, as Bunting has remained one of the league’s most valuable non-ELC players on a cost-per-point basis, scoring 24 points in 34 games.

Bunting, whose Toronto tenure has established his ability to not only help more skilled players shine, but also produce well without a featured power play role, has lined himself up for a solid free agent payday.

While the ever-so-slight downturn in production (he scored 63 points last year and is scoring at a 58-point pace this year) may seem notable to some, Bunting’s stock is most definitely on the rise as he’s adding another productive season to his resume while remaining a valuable contributor to what looks to be another Maple Leafs regular-season juggernaut.

Jason Zucker, Pittsburgh Penguins

Of all the players already listed and still to come, Zucker’s stock may have shot up the most since the start of 2022-23.

His health issues seemingly behind him, Zucker has scored 21 points in 29 games so far this year.

Zucker’s leaguewide reputation as a capable if relatively unexciting second-line scorer, a reputation he once enjoyed before it was eroded by an injury-plagued Penguins tenure, is seemingly on the path to being restored.

While some might quibble that Zucker’s issues on the defensive side of the ice should diminish his case for a hefty free-agent contract, Zucker will be 31 when free agency opens and has a shot to cross the 50-point plateau for the first time since 2017-18.

Well-liked veterans with those numbers don’t leave the free agent market empty-handed.

James Van Riemsdyk, Philadelphia Flyers

While the Flyers’ season has gone a bit off the rails since a promising start, Van Riemsdyk’s re-integration into their lineup after finger surgery in October has gone swimmingly.

Van Riemsdyk has 13 points in 15 games, meaning just four points separate him from the Flyers’ top-five scorers despite that limited sample size. For years one of the league’s premier net-front specialists, it seems Van Riemsdyk is still a capable scoring-line forward at the age of 33.

He’ll be 34 when free agency opens, and although his scoring rate is likely to slow down a bit he’ll likely be an attractive short-term piece for a contender. Even if his scoring slows down as we get deeper into the season, his stock is definitely up from where it was last season, when he scored a still-solid 24 goals and 38 points in 82 games.

Tomas Tatar, New Jersey Devils

After scoring 30 points in 50 games two years ago in his free agency platform season, the contract Tatar ultimately signed (a two-year, $4.5MM AAV pact with New Jersey) may have been a bit lighter than some expected. The Slovak forward had scored 61 points in 68 games the year before, and was considered a quality top-six piece.

Tatar’s time as a healthy scratch for most of his Canadiens’ run to the 2021 Stanley Cup final may have contributed to his more lukewarm-than-anticipated market, although if the Devils end up qualifying this spring he’ll have an opportunity to put together a productive postseason run.

Tatar has scored nine goals and 19 points in 34 games, which puts him at a 46-point 82-game pace. He scored 15 goals and 30 points in his debut season as a Devil, so his improved production would indicate his stock is up in advance of what could be another free agent trip.

He’s the sort of player who could really solidify a strong position on the market if he can finally have a productive playoff run.

Pavel Zacha, Boston Bruins

Zacha, 25, has long been seen as an underachieving player who has quite a bit more upside left to be unlocked. Ever since he was drafted sixth overall in 2015, high expectations have been placed on Zacha’s shoulders, and he hasn’t yet lived up to them.

This year has been a step in the right direction, though. Since being traded to a Bruins team that currently looks unstoppable, Zacha has scored 20 points in 33 games, a 50-point pace. He’s done so despite a shooting percentage of just 5.5%, a significant decline from his career 10.7 shooting percentage.

If Zacha can add some more goals and see his puck luck improve to something a bit less dire, he could reach a new level of production and value. He’ll have just recently turned 26 if he hits the open market next year, and if he can have a productive playoff run, he could set himself up for a major payday.

While he may remain an underwhelming player given his high draft slot in what has looked like a historic 2015 first round, he has undoubtedly raised his stock this year and set himself up to earn a pretty penny if he can keep up his current play.

Zach Parise, New York Islanders

Parise, who will be 39 this next summer, continues to defy father time as a steady and productive goal scorer for the Islanders. After being bought out by the Minnesota Wild, Parise signed a cheap, league-minimum deal with the New York Islanders, brokered by the GM of his former team, Lou Lamoriello.

Parise, largely playing with franchise face Mathew Barzal, scored 15 goals and 35 points. He may not have been the elite first-line running mate Islanders fans wanted, but he was solid nonetheless. He signed another bargain-bin extension to remain on the Island this summer and has scored at a 26-goal, 40-point pace.

The hefty buyout from the Minnesota Wild attached to him, along with the contracts he’s received for the past two seasons indicates that he’s unlikely to be looking for a major free-agent cash-in. Instead, he seems to have prioritized fit, and as long as he feels a desire to keep playing, his scoring numbers will earn him another deal from the Islanders.

The Role Players

Marcus Johansson, Washington Capitals

The Capitals signed Johansson, a familiar face, to a one-year, $1.1MM deal this summer, coming off of a somewhat unremarkable showing for the team that spring. After being acquired from the Seattle Kraken, Johansson scored six points in 18 games.

He was brought back in the summer in large part due to the organization’s familiarity with him and they valued the versatility, reliability, and stability he could bring to their forward corps.

This year, Johansson has gotten a major power play role and has scored 16 points in 36 games, in large part thanks to the offensive opportunity he’s been afforded by coach Peter Laviolette. That’s a 37-point pace, and if he manages to finish in the 35-40 point range going into his free agency he could attract some interest outside of Washington.

While Johansson isn’t going to be a fit for a team looking for a depth signing that brings defensive fortitude, this year he’s shown that he can still contribute at the NHL level, and his performance should earn him some looks as a 32-year-old free agent.

Nick Foligno, Boston Bruins

After he received a contract worth $3.8MM against the cap with a two-year term, Bruins fans could not be blamed for expecting more from Foligno in his first year in Beantown.

The former Columbus Blue Jackets captain scored just two goals and 13 points in an injury-limited 64-game campaign, and his lone assist in the team’s seven-game playoff series loss to the Carolina Hurricanes only added to the buyer’s remorse.

The Bruins chose to retain Foligno at his cap hit for this season, and he has rewarded them with improved play. He has scored 16 points in 33 games, a 40-point pace, and he has done so despite skating just over 12 minutes per night.

While Foligno’s first season in Boston and failures as a Toronto Maple Leaf may give some teams pause next summer, his stock is firmly trending up from where it was last season.

Alexander Kerfoot, Toronto Maple Leafs

Kerfoot, a Maple Leaf for the past few seasons, is a curious case. He’s got loads of offensive skill and managed to score 51 points last season.

While the bottom fell out of his production in the playoffs, as he scored just two points in the team’s difficult seven-game loss to the Tampa Bay Lightning, he was a mid-twenties 50-point player capable of playing the wing or center in a pinch. Those are players that don’t grow on trees.

And yet this season, the decline that was hinted at in the playoffs has fully set in. Kerfoot’s production has declined, as he is scoring at just a 36-point pace, and even more time on the power play than last year hasn’t caused an uptick in points production.

While points are far from the only metric teams will use to determine the value of a player, it can be valuable to use points to serve as a baseline guiding light when appraising the value of offensive players. While Kerfoot does see time on the Maple Leafs penalty kill, the 51 points he scored last year were undoubtedly the most attractive component of his resume.

With that decline in production and no truly meaningful improvement to his all-around role to make up for it comes a decline in his stock heading into his trip to unrestricted free agency.

Nick Ritchie, Arizona Coyotes

Exiled from the Maple Leafs after their roll of the dice on him failed to pay dividends, Ritchie has carved out a nice role away from the bright lights of one of hockey’s biggest markets.

In Arizona, Ritchie scored 10 goals and 14 points in 24 games after arriving there via trade, and this season he has seven goals and 13 points in 26 games. While the days of Ritchie being a top prospect are long gone, he’s turned himself into a viable shoot-first third-liner who brings some size to his line.

He’ll be a 27-year-old free agent, and while the Coyotes may have some interest in continuing their mutually-beneficial partnership, the scoring winger is likely to receive interest from elsewhere as well.

Sonny Milano, Washington Capitals

One of the more curious cases of this past summer’s free agent class, Milano was non-tendered by the Anaheim Ducks and lingered far longer on the open market than many fans likely had anticipated he would.

After scoring 14 goals and 34 points in 66 games, many were hoping their team would add the 26-year-old 2014 first-round pick as a down-the-lineup scoring forward.

What observers may have perhaps underestimated, though, was just how negatively Milano’s all-around game could have been rated leaguewide. Never a defensive player, the failure of Milano’s PTO agreement with the Flames only made questions about his commitment to defense and the all-around game louder.

He signed a league-minimum one-year deal with the Washington Capitals, and after being called up to the main team he hasn’t looked back. He has scored 16 points in 23 games, often playing with some of the Capitals’ more established offensive talents, like Evgeny Kuznetsov.

While Milano remains the type of player whose defensive warts likely merit some sheltering from his coach, points are points and if Milano can keep up this red-hot start to his Capitals tenure, he should have an easier trip to the open market than he had last season.

Miles Wood, New Jersey Devils

The depth of next summer’s class of potential free agent left wingers has enviable depth. There are players like Milano, who brings offensive flair at a cheap price, and then there are players like Wood, who outside of some bursts of goal-scoring isn’t really valued for his production.

Wood, one of the faster players in hockey, is valued for his leadership ability, physical contributions, and abilities along the boards. Wood is part of a Devils fourth line that, when healthy, plays a fast, chaotic style that can give opposing teams fits on the forecheck.

He’ll be just 27 years old when he hits the market and could draw significant interest from teams looking to re-create that Devils fourth line. If he can play well under the bright lights of a possible Devils playoff run, he could have quite a few suitors if he hits the open market.

Adam Erne, Detroit Red Wings

Erne’s free agency case is relatively straightforward. Erne, who followed GM Steve Yzerman from Tampa Bay to Detroit, is valued by coaches for what he brings away from the puck rather than with the puck on his stick.

The former QMJHL star contributes to the Red Wings’ second penalty-killing unit, scores at a respectable clip (13 points in 32 games), is able to play almost anywhere in the lineup in a pinch, and will be 28 when he hits the open market.

That’s an attractive all-around package of skills, even if it’s not one that’s as rare as what some of his fellow free agents bring to the table.

While his overall talent level hasn’t changed very much, and his free agent stock remains largely steady as a result, the increased role Erne has played in Detroit in response to the team’s rash of injuries has meant his offensive production has ticked up from where it was last year.

He’s on pace to score 33 points, which would be quite a ways past his career-high of 2o. While his ability to play a quality supporting role on a Red Wings team that has been competitive so far this year should be what earns him the most looks on the open market, his increased offensive opportunity (and his shooting percentage going up from 5.6% to 16.1%) will help his stock trend up.

Andrew Cogliano, Colorado Avalanche

Cogliano, a veteran of 1,170 NHL games, has a clearly defined role in Colorado. He’s tasked with being a go-to penalty killer, a defensive specialist, and a valuable locker room voice. Any offensive production on top of that is just an added bonus.

While the 35-year-old is out of the lineup with an injury at the moment, his play so far this year has been solid, keeping his stock in a steady place. He’s earning $1.25MM against the cap, and as he ages that number is far more likely to go down rather than up.

But if Cogliano can continue to play well in his role for the defending Stanley Cup champions, he’ll undoubtedly earn another contract this summer.

Others Of Note

Matt Nieto, San Jose Sharks

The Sharks don’t have a highly competitive forward lineup, meaning Nieto has gotten a larger opportunity than he’d likely receive elsewhere. The 601-game veteran has responded well. On the offensive side of the ice, Nieto has scored 12 points in 31 games, an increase from the 17 points in 70 games he scored last year.

More impressively, Nieto is playing the most minutes of any Sharks forward on the penalty kill. The results of his heavy workload? He has helped lead his team to the top of the NHL’s penalty-kill rankings.

The 30-year-old has been skating in a bigger role than ever before in his NHL career, and while the Sharks have faltered, he’s thrived.

Andreas Athanasiou, Chicago Blackhawks

Athanasiou signed a one-year, $3MM deal with the Blackhawks in the offseason, an identical deal to the one Max Domi signed. Like Domi, Athanasiou likely agreed to the contract with the hope that playing next to Patrick Kane, a play-driving offensive force, would boost his numbers and land him a fatter contract the next summer.

While Domi has thrived to a certain degree, Athanasiou hasn’t been great. He has just 10 points in 31 games, and while seven of those are goals his failure to fully fit with Domi and Kane has seen him move down in the lineup.

A player with blazing speed and tantalizing one-on-one skills, Athanasiou has never quite been able to play consistently with linemates as part of a three-player unit. The best offensive players are able to leverage their position as part of a group of players in order to create scoring changes. That’s something Athanasiou has struggled with immensely this year and has been a challenge for him in the past.

While there’s still room for him to bounce back, his stock is down so far this year, and whether he receives much interest on the trade market later this year will be telling as to how he’s valued leaguewide.

Evgenii Dadonov, Montreal Canadiens

After landing in Montreal as part of a cap-clearing offseason trade, Dadonov likely had the hope that he’d soak up prime offensive opportunities on a rebuilding team, stack some points, and be traded to a contender mid-season. If that were to happen, he’d in all likelihood have placed himself in a solid position to earn a new contract.

Unfortunately, Dadonov’s tenure in Montreal has gone wildly off the rails. The former 70-point scorer had moments of brilliance last season and finished with 20 goals and 43 points. After 28 games this year, Dadonov is on pace to score around 20 points.

Canadiens head coach Martin St. Louis has tried to squeeze some value out of the 33-year-old veteran in lots of different ways, including even giving him penalty-killing looks, but none of his attempts have worked.

After a season where Dadonov played exceptionally well in stretches, his stock has declined sharply in Montreal.

Picture courtesy of USA Today Sports Images