Salary Cap Deep Dive: Boston Bruins

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation for the 2022-23 season and beyond.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Boston Bruins

Current Cap Hit: $84,435,581 (under the $82.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

G Jeremy Swayman (one year, $925K)

Potential Bonuses
Swayman: $150K

Swayman had a very nice rookie season that saw him serve as part of an effective platoon which was the role he was expected to play this year although an early injury has stalled that somewhat.  Generally speaking, a fairly limited track record should limit him a bit on his next contract (almost certainly a bridge deal) although his camp will be using Spencer Knight’s three-year, $13.5MM extension as a comparable.  Something a bit less than that could certainly be doable.

Signed Through 2022-23, Non-Entry-Level

F Patrice Bergeron ($2.5MM, UFA)
D Connor Clifton ($1MM, UFA)
F Nick Foligno ($3.8MM, UFA)
F Trent Frederic ($1.05MM, RFA)
G Keith Kinkaid ($750K, UFA)
F David Krejci ($1MM, UFA)
F Tomas Nosek ($1.75MM, UFA)
F David Pastrnak ($6.67MM, UFA)
F Craig Smith ($3.1MM, UFA)
D Anton Stralman ($1MM, UFA)
F Chris Wagner ($1.35MM, UFA)
F Pavel Zacha ($3.5MM, UFA)

Potential Bonuses
Bergeron: $2.5MM (already reached)
Krejci: $2MM ($1MM already reached)

Bergeron and Krejci agreed to team-friendly one-year deals that gave this core one last chance to go for it but the downside is the bonus overage penalty that is on the way.  You might have noticed above that $3.5MM in bonuses have already been hit while Krejci will hit another $500K within the next few weeks if he stays healthy and the other $500K is attainable if they make the playoffs which is looking likely.  Both players could get considerably more on the open market if they wanted to but have made it clear they don’t want to go anywhere else.  They could sign similar contracts next summer or the Bruins might have quite a vacancy to fill next summer.  Right now, they’re benefitting quite nicely from these contracts with the big hit coming in 2023-24 when those bonuses will hit the cap.  Zacha was brought in to potentially audition for one of Bergeron’s or Krejci’s spots a year from now but he continues to be hit or miss in the offensive zone, a trend he has had throughout his career.  Still, as a young center with size, there will be lots of interest but it’s likely to come around the $3.5MM mark on a multi-year agreement.

Pastrnak is the most notable player of the many on this list.  While there are some prominent wingers that are set to hit the open market this summer, Pastrnak is the best of them all (and also the youngest).  Heading into the season, an extension around the $10MM mark looked possible but with the start that he’s having to his year, that feels like it could be on the low end now, especially with there being some speculation that the salary cap may jump a bit more than the expected $1MM next summer.  Could Artemi Panarin’s $11.643MM (the record for a winger) be attainable?  If he keeps up the current pace, he’ll have a very strong case to make to eclipse that mark on a max-term deal.

Foligno’s first season with Boston was nothing short of a disaster as he had just two goals in 64 games.  To his credit, he has gotten off to a better start this season and already passed the two-tally mark but at this point of his career, he’s closer to being a fourth liner than an impact middle-six option and his market should correct accordingly next summer.  Smith is usually good for double-digit goals and 30-plus points each year and is the type of player that can fit on a third line and move up in a pinch.  The market for those players has really cratered in recent years so a dip in pay seems likely although he could still get a multi-year deal.

As for the other forwards, Nosek continues to be a faceoff specialist that can kill penalties and even with limited production, he’ll still have some suitors.  That said, as fourth lines get cheaper, he might come up a bit short of this price next summer.  Wagner is currently in the minors but as a physical energy player, he’ll have some interest in July but it’s likely to be on a deal that’s either at or a little under $1MM.  Then there’s Frederic, the lone RFA in this group.  He has settled in as a capable fourth liner and while that’s not a great return on a first-round pick, he should be able to get a small increase on his $1.15MM qualifying offer.

Clifton has been a role player for most of his career, working his way into a regular spot on the third pairing.  Generally, that profile tends to stay around this price tag.  However, he has picked a great time to take a step forward and has done well in a top-four role in the early going this season.  If that holds up, he could market himself as a 28-year-old top-four right-handed defender.  That could push him past the $3MM mark if the demand is high.  Stralman took a PTO deal and eventually got converted to a full contract but has played sparingly this season.  If that holds up, he’ll be hard-pressed to make this much on his next deal.

Kinkaid is currently on the roster because of Swayman’s injury so he gets a quick mention here.  He has been a serviceable third-stringer in recent years which should allow him to get a good two-way agreement that guarantees more than half of what his NHL pay would be, similar to the deal he has now (which has a $400K AHL portion).

Signed Through 2023-24

F Jake DeBrusk ($4MM, UFA)
D Derek Forbort ($3MM, UFA)
F A.J. Greer ($762.5K, UFA)
D Matt Grzelcyk ($3.6875MM, UFA)
D Mike Reilly ($3MM, UFA)
D Jakub Zboril ($1.1375MM, UFA)

After some prolonged stretches and a lengthy trade request that was eventually rescinded, DeBrusk is starting to produce more consistently.  If he can score 25 goals this year and next (matching his 2021-22 total), he’ll be in good shape to command a pricier contract with a longer-term agreement than he has been accustomed to at this point of his career.  Greer is getting his first taste of regular NHL action and is doing rather well.  If that continues, he could have a chance at doubling his price tag.

Grzelcyk never really has been able to take a big step forward offensively but he has settled in nicely as a second pairing player that will chip in with 20-25 points per season on average.  He’s also a strong skater which helps in this era of teams coveting mobility from the back end although, at 5’9, he’s one of the smaller defenders in the league.  That might hurt his market a bit in the end but he should be able to get a bit more than this in free agency.  Forbort is more of the old-school type of defender, bigger and more physical but he has had a bit more of a limited role with Boston compared to his time with Winnipeg or even Los Angeles earlier in his career.  It’s possible that in 2024, he’ll be viewed more like a fifth option which would make it difficult to get as much as he is now at that time.

Reilly has been a depth defender for most of his career but turned a strong 2020-21 year into this contract, one that is on the pricey side right now.  Clearing waivers notwithstanding (cap troubles mean a lot of quality players would clear), he’s someone that should settle in closer to half this price tag on the open market.  Zboril dealt with injuries last season, putting Boston in a spot where they could get him on the cheap.  He has been a sixth or seventh defender in the early going, similar to his usage before this season.  If that continues, this could wind up being close to his ceiling in terms of his next contract.

Signed Through 2024-25

F Taylor Hall ($6MM, UFA)
F Brad Marchand ($6.125MM, UFA)
G Linus Ullmark ($5MM, UFA)

Marchand is another veteran that has long been on a team-friendly contract.  It’s fair to surmise that he might slow down by the end of this (he’ll be 37 when he next is UFA-eligible) but even if he does, they’ve gotten enough surplus value to make up for it.  It wouldn’t be surprising to see history repeat itself with Marchand taking a cheaper team-friendly one-year deal in 2025.  Hall never really was able to get back to the level of his Hart-winning year with New Jersey although he has settled in as a quality second liner.  This price tag is reasonable for that role and with the cap expected to be much higher by 2025, a similarly-priced contract could be achievable if he’s still playing at a similar level by then.

There was some risk cooked into Ullmark’s contract considering he had all of 117 career NHL appearances at the time and had never made 34 starts in a season.  This is an expensive contract for a platoon goalie although with the way he’s playing this year, he looks like more of a true starter.  Swayman will eventually cut into his playing time but Ullmark’s performance early on with the Bruins should be enough to convince a team he’s a legitimate starter which will either make him a good trade candidate in a couple of years or help him earn at least a small raise on the open market.

Signed Through 2025-26 Or Longer

D Brandon Carlo ($4.1MM through 2026-27)
F Charlie Coyle ($5.25MM through 2025-26)
D Hampus Lindholm ($6.5MM through 2029-30)
D Charlie McAvoy ($9.5MM through 2029-30)

Coyle has been a player that has shown flashes of legitimate top-end upside throughout his career followed by quiet stretches that hurt his value.  The results were mixed in his first test at being a second-line center.  In that role, his price tag is justifiable.  If he’s on the wing or on the third line, it’s a little harder to find value.  Krejci won’t be around much longer so he’ll get another crack playing down the middle in the top six which gives him a shot at living up to this deal.

McAvoy has blossomed into a legitimate number one defenseman and has finished in the top ten in Norris voting in each of the last three seasons.  While it’s difficult to call someone on this contract a relative bargain, if his 56-point outing from last year is a sign of things to come, it’s possible that could be the case here.  Lindholm came over from Anaheim at the trade deadline and quickly inked this max-term extension.  It’s fair to question if his current offensive pace is sustainable (he’s averaging a point per game with his career-high in points being just 34) but it doesn’t need to be to justify this cost.  This is fair value for a number two defender and that’s a role that Lindholm should be able to hold onto for a while even if the last couple of years might be a bit on the expensive side.  Carlo is a dependable defensive defender that won’t contribute a whole lot offensively.  Those players have definite value to a team but it’s harder for them to command pricey contracts in free agency.  Unless he’s able to break through on that end over the next several seasons, his earnings ceiling might not be much higher than it is now.

Buyouts

None

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Best Value: Pastrnak
Worst Value: Foligno

Looking Ahead

Right now, Boston has been using LTIR to stay cap-compliant but that’s going to get trickier once Forbort is healthy as he’s the only one on there right now.  At that time, GM Don Sweeney might have to get a little creative to free up the space to get back to compliance.  Barring a significant injury that opens up a lot of LTIR room, it’s difficult to envision the Bruins being able to add a piece during the season unless it’s a player-for-player swap that matches money.

With the Bruins being in LTIR up to this point, they haven’t been able to bank cap space which presents a situation where most, if not all of the bonuses, will hit the cap next season.  That alone will probably more than eat up any increase to the Upper Limit.  That certainly won’t help when it comes to trying to afford Pastrnak’s next deal and new contracts for Bergeron or Krejci (or their replacements).  They’ll get some help with some of their other expirings coming off the books but it’s still going to be a tight fit.

From a longer-term perspective, things are pretty clean as Boston only has seven players under contract for 2024-25 and beyond which will give Sweeney a fairly blank canvas with which to try to rework his core group but things will be a bit tight between now and then.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.