Salary Cap Deep Dive: Nashville Predators

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation for the 2022-23 season and beyond.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Nashville Predators

Current Cap Hit: $80,873,601 (under the $82.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

None

Signed Through 2022-23, Non-Entry-Level

D Mark Borowiecki ($900K, UFA)
D Alexandre Carrier ($733K, RFA)
D Dante Fabbro ($2.4MM, RFA)
F Cody Glass ($874K, RFA)
F Tanner Jeannot ($800K, RFA)
G Kevin Lankinen ($1.5MM, UFA)
F Michael McCarron ($750K, UFA)
F Zach Sanford ($850K, UFA)
F Kiefer Sherwood ($750K, UFA)
F Cole Smith ($750K, UFA)

It feels like Glass is in a make-or-break year.  After spending most of last season in the minors, he broke camp with Nashville and has been a regular early on.  Young centers with size get long leashes and simply holding down a regular role will earn him another opportunity, albeit at one that isn’t much higher priced than this.  But if he can’t do that, they could look to move on.  That won’t be the case for Jeannot who became an impact power forward last season and is off to a strong start this year.  If he tops the 20-goal mark again, comparable contracts elsewhere could push him past the $5MM mark, especially with arbitration eligibility.

As for the pending UFAs, Sanford didn’t have a particularly strong market this summer and quickly settled for this contract with the hopes of rebuilding his value.  With limited minutes early on, that’s unlikely to happen and accordingly, his next deal should come in close to this one.  Smith has held a regular role early but with limited NHL experience prior to this season, he’d be hard-pressed to pass the $1MM mark unless he picks things up offensively.  McCarron and Sherwood have bounced between the NHL and the minors in recent years and are likely heading for contracts at or near the minimum again.

Fabbro was once viewed as a future top-four piece but his average ice time is down considerably this season and is fifth among Nashville defenders.  A $2.4MM qualifying offer with arbitration rights is a bit on the high side for a fifth blueliner and if he doesn’t recover from his slow start, he could be a candidate for a change of scenery.  If he rebounds and gets back to the 19-minute ATOI mark, a small raise to the $3MM range could be doable.  Borowiecki is best utilized as a seventh defender at this point of his career and players like that aren’t likely to surpass $1MM on their contracts.  If he sticks around next year, it’ll be at a similar price point.  Carrier has worked his way into a regular role and logged nearly 21 minutes a game last season.  With one year of RFA eligibility remaining, the Preds will likely want to work out a multi-year deal that could push his cost into the $3MM range.

Lankinen is another free agent signing that is looking to rebuild his value after a tough year in Chicago.  A bounce-back year could make him one of the more intriguing UFAs next summer as he’ll only be 28.  A strong showing might be enough to push him closer to the $2.5MM AAV range on a multi-year deal.

Signed Through 2023-24

F Nino Niederreiter ($4MM, UFA)
F Eeli Tolvanen ($1.45MM, RFA)
F Yakov Trenin ($1.7MM, UFA)

Niederreiter’s first trip through unrestricted free agency wasn’t as successful as he likely hoped as he had to settle for a pay cut.  The market for secondary wingers isn’t as strong as it was a few years ago but in 2024, there should be a higher jump in the salary cap which could give him a chance to get closer to the $5MM mark if he’s productive with the Preds.  Trenin only has had one full season under his belt but had 17 goals in that year which gave him a bit of leverage this summer.  This is basically another bridge deal to see if he can repeat that type of production.  If so, he could add another million in free agency but if not, he’s likely looking at a small dip.  Tolvanen has shown flashes of upside over the last couple of seasons but hasn’t been able to put together a consistently productive season yet.  If he can get to the 20-goal mark and cement himself as part of Nashville’s future core, he could more than double this contract.  If not, his last RFA year should be closer to $2MM.

Signed Through 2024-25

F Mikael Granlund ($5MM, UFA)
F Ryan Johansen ($8MM, UFA)
G Juuse Saros ($5MM, UFA)

Johansen had some tough seasons but last year was arguably his best, at least in his time with the Predators.  He still didn’t put up top-line production but he played a big role in Nashville having two strong scoring lines.  He’ll be 33 when this deal is up and at this point, it still seems safe to forecast a dip in his salary, even if he remains around the 60-point mark.  Granlund had by far his best season with Nashville last year and is off to a similar start this year.  He doesn’t score very often anymore but as an all-situations veteran that is spending more time at center than he used to, he’s filling an important role.  He’ll also be 33 when this contract is up and if he’s still logging 20 minutes a night, he could get a little more at that time as long as his production doesn’t go back to what it was a couple of years ago.

Saros has certainly established himself as a quality starter after playing more than 40 games for the first time last season.  He’s undersized which scares a lot of teams off but if he has three more seasons like last year (one that saw him finish third in Vezina Trophy voting), he should have a strong market that could push his AAV past the $7MM mark.

Signed Through 2025-26 Or Longer

F Matt Duchene ($8MM through 2025-26)
D Mattias Ekholm ($6.25MM through 2025-26)
F Filip Forsberg ($8.5MM through 2029-30)
D Roman Josi ($9.059MM through 2027-28)
D Jeremy Lauzon ($2MM through 2025-26)
D Ryan McDonagh ($6.75MM through 2025-26)
F Colton Sissons ($2.857MM through 2025-26)

Forsberg’s contract was a particularly interesting one to follow last summer.  While there was no doubt of a mutual desire to work out a long-term agreement, what complicated things was that he went out and had a career year.  In doing so, the asking price certainly went up compared to what it was the year before when talks stalled and it took until close to the last minute to get this deal done.  It’s one that might not age particularly well – especially if his output drops closer to the mid-20s where it has been for most of his career – but it was a contract that the Predators couldn’t afford not to do if they wanted to keep themselves in the playoff picture in the short term.

Duchene had certainly underwhelmed in his first two seasons in Nashville.  However, he went out and had a career year last season and is off to a pretty good start this year as well.  Last season, he produced at the rate of a number one center so while there are justifiably some doubts as to if that can be sustained, he lived up to his deal in 2021-22.  Sissons is a quality checking center but production has been an issue for him as he has only reached ten goals once in his first eight years.  This is a bit of an overpayment on that end but the fact he can win draws and kill penalties allows the Preds to get a decent return on this deal.

Josi had always been an above-average offensive defender but last season, he took that to another level, leading all NHL blueliners in scoring with a whopping 96 points.  Considering he makes a couple million less than the top-paid defenders, he provided some surplus value even with the contract being the richest in team history.  That type of output isn’t sustainable but he has several years of being a number one defender ahead of him so this deal shouldn’t be a concern for a long time.  McDonagh was brought in this summer after Tampa Bay decided to part with him to help solve their salary cap challenges.  His days of being on the top pairing are long gone but he’s still a capable second-pairing player.  That could change in a couple of years but for now, they’ll get reasonable value.

Ekholm has never been a big point producer so his value is derived from his defensive play.  Right now, that performance is quite strong so, in a vacuum, the Preds will be pleased with the return on his contract.  That said, it’s a pricey top three with him, McDonagh, and Josi with two of those players not being offensive producers.  Lauzon is an expensive depth option but if he can establish himself as a regular on the third pairing, this contract should hold up fine over time.

Buyouts

F Kyle Turris ($2MM through 2027-28)

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Best Value: Jeannot
Worst Value: Johansen

Looking Ahead

GM David Poile was able to add some quality veterans to this group over the summer and they’re in a situation where they should be able to bank some cap space to try to add an upgrade or two in the second half of the season.  There aren’t many potential playoff squads that are in that good of shape when it comes to potential in-season additions.

However, there isn’t a lot of long-term flexibility either.  They have over $70MM in commitments for 2023-24 already to just 13 players and Jeannot will add a pretty big number to that.  They’ll either have to sign a bunch of minimum players to fill out their roster or they’ll have to try to free up a bit of money.  Realistically, their next summer with any type of real spending potential might not be until 2025 so Nashville fans should get used to this core for the foreseeable future.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.