Salary Cap Deep Dive: Colorado Avalanche

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation for the 2022-23 season and beyond.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Colorado Avalanche

Current Cap Hit: $80,628,637 (under the $82.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

D Bowen Byram (one year, $894K)
F Martin Kaut (one year, $863K)
F Alex Newhook (one year, $908K)

Potential Bonuses
Byram: $2.5MM
Kaut: $425K
Newhook: $850K
Total: $3.775MM

The departure of Nazem Kadri has created an opportunity for Newhook to push for that spot on the second line.  If he can grab it, it’s possible that Colorado could look to give him a longer-term deal in the $4MM range, one that’s above market value now but below it down the road.  Otherwise, a two-year bridge contract in the $2MM range is likely where he winds up.  He’ll need to produce in their top six to have a chance at some of his ‘A’ bonuses.  Kaut cleared waivers to start the season but might be up for a  little while due to some injuries up front.  That said, he will have a very limited role based on how little they deploy their fourth line so he’s a candidate to take less than his qualifying offer in exchange for a higher two-way salary or perhaps a one-way deal at the minimum.

Byram, when healthy, was an impactful player last year and is off to a good start this season.  He’s the type of young core player that a team would typically like to lock up close to the maximum term.  That’s harder to predict here due to Byram’s concussion history.  He has missed a lot of time with that particular issue already so there might be some hesitance to commit that type of deal to him at this time.  A bridge contract could still run Colorado past $4MM per year based on some recent comparables so they’ll have to leave some room for that.  If Byram stays healthy, he’s a strong bet to reach the $850K in ‘A’ bonuses in his deal so that will need to be accounted for either this season or next.

Signed Through 2022-23, Non-Entry-Level

F Andrew Cogliano ($1.25MM, UFA)
F J.T. Compher ($3.5MM, UFA)
F Darren Helm ($1.25MM, UFA)
F Dryden Hunt ($763K, UFA)
D Erik Johnson ($6MM, UFA)
F Jayson Megna ($750K, UFA)
F Evan Rodrigues ($2MM, UFA)

Compher avoided arbitration with this contract back in 2019, one that he’d become more productive during the contract.  That hasn’t happened as instead, he has basically produced at a similar point-per-game level since then.  He’ll be 28 next summer and as a center, he should have a fairly strong market but unless he can lock down Kadri’s old role, it’s hard to see him getting much more than this.  Rodrigues was a late signee after misreading the market early in free agency.  If he can produce at a similar level as a year ago, he should be able to get a bit more than this on the open market next year as he’ll have shown that 2021-22 wasn’t an outlier.

Cogliano had a nice playoff run which earned him this one-year deal back in July.  Now in his age-35 season, he’ll almost certainly be going year to year and with his production being at the level of a fourth liner in recent seasons, his price tag should dip a bit more next summer.  Helm is in a very similar situation although he has been a bit more productive than Cogliano lately and can play center which, in theory, should give him a bit of a stronger market.  Even so, his role has been decreasing and he’s better off as a fourth liner so Helm’s next contract should be similar to this one.  Hunt and Megna haven’t established themselves as regulars yet and accordingly, unless something changes, they’ll be signed for close to the minimum next year.  Colorado can’t afford to go much higher than that for their end-of-roster spots either.

Johnson was a core defender for a long time although his role and efficiency have dipped in recent seasons.  He’ll be 35 next summer and while he is doing well enough to land a contract somewhere, it’s likely that it will check in at least 50% lower than his current deal.

Signed Through 2023-24

G Pavel Francouz ($2MM, UFA)
D/F Kurtis MacDermid ($988K, UFA)
D/F Jacob MacDonald ($763K, UFA)
D Devon Toews ($4.1MM, UFA)

GM Joe Sakic took advantage of the Islanders needing to clear cap space, allowing them to acquire Toews for a couple of second-round picks and then signed him to this contract which has become team-friendly in a hurry.  His offensive game has taken off with Colorado and he’s coming off a 57-point campaign.  Toews will be 30 when his next contract will begin and he’s already on his way to a considerable raise.  If he stays around the 50-point mark these next two seasons though, he could be doubling his price tag and then some on a max-term deal.  This is the next big-ticket contract that Sakic will need to work out although he’ll have to wait until next July to work on it.

MacDermid has moved between defense and the wing somewhat regularly and has held his own in both limited roles.  Of course, he’s best known for his physicality and the positional versatility helps.  But with minimal production, it’s unlikely that MacDermid will be able to do much better than this on his next deal.  MacDonald has largely been in the minors in his career and will need to establish himself as a regular if he wants to get much more than the minimum two years from now.

Francouz has battled injury issues but when he is healthy, he has done well as evidenced by a career .921 SV% heading into the season.  But with the injuries and a limited track record (57 NHL appearances heading into the year), he opted for stability and took this extension last season.  If he can stay healthy and play at a similar level, he could be in line for something in the $3MM range on the open market in 2024.

Signed Through 2024-25

F Logan O’Connor ($1.05MM, UFA)
G Alexandar Georgiev ($3.4MM, UFA)
F Mikko Rantanen ($9.25MM, UFA)

Rantanen has been a legitimate top-line star for several seasons now and is coming off a year that saw him set new career highs in goals, assists, and points.  While this is already his eighth season with some NHL action under his belt, he’s still only 25 and will hit the open market at 28.  The cap is expected to be a fair bit higher then than it is now and he’ll still be in his prime.  Accordingly, Rantanen could be a candidate to best Artemi Panarin’s $11.643MM AAV in free agency if he gets there.  O’Connor has just one full NHL campaign under his belt (last season) but was a valuable bottom-six role player and the Avs opted for the early team-friendly extension.  As long as he continues to be a regular and produces around 20-25 points, he’ll be in position to make a few hundred thousand more on his next deal.

Georgiev was acquired from the Rangers this past summer once Colorado realized that they wouldn’t be able to bring back Darcy Kuemper.  He had some good and bad moments with New York and that allowed Colorado to sign him for a rate that is close to what veteran backups that can make 30 starts get on the open market.  If Georgiev can play like a legitimate starter with the Avalanche, it will be a very team-friendly contract while the netminder could command closer to $5.5MM on his next deal.

Signed Through 2025-26 Or Longer

D Samuel Girard ($5MM through 2026-27)
F Gabriel Landeskog ($7MM through 2028-29)
F Artturi Lehkonen ($4.5MM through 2026-27)
F Nathan MacKinnon ($6.3MM this season, $12.6MM from 2023-24 through 2030-31)
D Cale Makar ($9MM through 2026-27)
D Josh Manson ($4.5MM through 2025-26)
F Valeri Nichushkin ($6.125MM through 2029-30)

MacKinnon has been one of the top bargains in the NHL for the last few years as one of the top forwards in the league while getting paid like a high-end second liner.  That will change a year from now as he begins the richest deal in NHL history (a mark he’ll probably only hold for one season).  It’s hard to provide surplus value on that type of contract but he still should have several high-end seasons left in him.  It was looking iffy for a while as to whether or not Colorado could retain Landeskog but they eventually got a deal done a year ago.  As long as he can stay on the top line, they’ll be fine with this deal but with the style of play that he brings, he’s liable to be a consistent injury risk toward the end of the contract.  He’s going to miss a few months after undergoing knee surgery earlier this week so Colorado will have some short-term LTIR flexibility if they need to use it.

Nichushkin’s deal raised some eyebrows as a max-term commitment worth more than $6MM for someone who only scored more than 15 goals once in his career (last season) certainly carries some risk.  Clearly, Sakic believes in the fit and the early returns are certainly impressive as he was tied for second in league scoring heading into the weekend.  As long as he’s producing like a higher-end second liner at a minimum, they’ll get a good return.  Lehkonen came over at the trade deadline from Montreal and provided some key secondary scoring both down the stretch and in the playoffs.  In an offensive environment like Colorado has, Lehkonen could produce like a second liner and would provide some strong value when added to his defensive play.  But if he dips down to the third line, the deal could wind up being one that is a bit above market value in the end.

There isn’t much to say about Makar that hasn’t been said already.  He has become an elite offensive defender and now has a Norris Trophy under his belt.  He logs heavy minutes and plays in all situations so he isn’t someone that needs to be sheltered.  Barring some injury trouble, his next contract will almost certainly set a new NHL record for defensemen.

Girard has been a speculative trade option if Colorado needs to move a core player to create some cap flexibility but he’s a legitimate top-four defender signed through his prime years.  If it ever comes to the point where they need to move him, there should be plenty of interest as he is providing a good return on his contract so far.  Manson was another trade deadline pickup that stuck around, deciding a small raise to stay was better than testing the open market.  It’s a decision that made sense as his production has dipped the last few years and his usage with the Avs was that of a third-pairing player, not a top four one like they’re paying him to be.  He’ll need to be closer to the 20-minute mark for this contract to work out well.

Buyouts

None

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Best Value: MacKinnon (this season)
Worst Value: Johnson

Looking Ahead

Right now, their cap room is fairly low with them carrying extra players (they’ll recall Megna and Kaut soon) due to the injuries to Landeskog and Helm.  They have some LTIR wiggle room for a few months with Landeskog’s injury if they need it at least.  But like many contenders, they’ll have to get creative if they want to add someone down the stretch.

Colorado already has over $70MM in commitments for next season to just 13 players which doesn’t leave them a lot of wiggle room; they’ve already spent Johnson’s expiring deal on MacKinnon’s extension.  In 2024-25, that dips to $62.425MM to nine players when they’ll need to pay big if they want to keep Toews in the fold.  Accordingly, it’s hard to see them acquiring any key non-rental players in the near future as they’ll need all the cap space they can get simply to keep their existing core intact let alone add to it.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.