Salary Cap Deep Dive: Vancouver Canucks

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2022-23 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Vancouver Canucks

Current Cap Hit: $85,261,667 (over the $82.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Nils Hoglander (one year, $891.7K)
F Andrei Kuzmenko (one year, $950K, UFA)
F Vasily Podkolzin (two years, $925K)

Potential Bonuses
Hoglander: $300K
Kuzmenko: $850K
Podkolzin: $850K
Total: $2MM

Kuzmenko had several suitors in the spring following a strong season in the KHL that saw him put up 53 points in 45 games.  If he’s able to lock down a spot in the top nine, the Canucks will get a good return on this deal and he’ll have a chance to hit some of his ‘A’ bonuses.  Notably, Kuzmenko will be an unrestricted free agent next summer again and obviously, his showing this coming season will dictate the level of interest he gets next time around.

Podkolzin’s first NHL season was a solid one as he was a capable secondary scorer with 26 points in 79 games while mostly playing only at even strength.  He should have a similar role in 2022-23 which wouldn’t have him on the trajectory for a pricey second deal; a bridge contract would be the likelier route for him.  A similar role will make it tough to reach his ‘A’ bonuses as well.  Hoglander took a step back in his sophomore year and dropped down the depth chart.  With the extra depth that they’ve brought in, his production will likely be limited, pointing him in the direction of a bridge deal as well that might check in around double his current price tag.  He probably won’t hit his ‘A’ bonus but the $87.5K in games played is achievable.

Signed Through 2022-23, Non-Entry-Level

D Kyle Burroughs ($750K, UFA)
D Travis Dermott ($1.5MM, RFA)
F Justin Dowling ($750K, UFA)
F Micheal Ferland ($3.5MM, UFA)
F Bo Horvat ($5.5MM, UFA)
D Brady Keeper ($762.5K, UFA)
D Luke Schenn ($850K, UFA)

Horvat has been a reliable two-way pivot for most of his career and has been playing on a below-market contract for the last few years.  That’s likely to change next summer when he’ll be one of the top centers on the open market.  Adding a couple million to his current price tag is doable.  Ferland missed all of the last two seasons with concussion issues and won’t play this year either.  He’ll be on LTIR which will help get Vancouver back into cap compliance.  Dowling split last season between the NHL and AHL and is the type of depth player that could stick around for another couple of years at the minimum.

Dermott has had a quiet couple of seasons now and this feels like a make-or-break situation for him.  If he can establish himself as a capable secondary producer from the back end and stabilize the third pairing, he could land a small raise next summer beyond his $1.75MM qualifying offer.  If not, he’s a non-tender candidate.  Schenn showed himself to be capable of being a regular on the back end last season after being more of a reserve player and that could generate a stronger market next summer and push him past the $1MM mark.  Keeper and Burroughs will be battling for a spot at the end of the roster but both are players that will be unlikely to land much beyond the minimum on their next contracts.

Signed Through 2023-24

F Jason Dickinson ($2.65MM, UFA)
G Spencer Martin ($762.5K, UFA)
D Tyler Myers ($6MM, UFA)
F Tanner Pearson ($3.25MM, UFA)
F Elias Pettersson ($7.35MM, UFA)
D Jack Rathbone ($825K, RFA)

Pettersson opted for a bridge contract last summer which helped Vancouver to stay cap-compliant and give them a little more flexibility in the short term.  However, the contract is significantly backloaded and carries a qualifying offer of $8.82MM next summer (the lower of 120% of the AAV or the final year’s salary of $10.25MM).  At this point, the 23-year-old is well on his way to being worth that qualifying amount but the Canucks will likely need to come in above that to get him to commit to a long-term agreement.  Otherwise, he could simply opt to take the minimum offer and test the open market in 2025.  Horvat’s deal is the priority right now but Pettersson’s situation looms large from a planning perspective.

Pearson improved upon his performance from the year before but it was still a notch below how he did in his first full season with the Canucks.  On its own, the contract isn’t an overpayment but the market has been tight for middle-six wingers lately so there’s no guarantee he’ll be able to get that two years from now.  Dickinson’s first season with Vancouver was a disaster.  Brought in to be the third-line center, he instead struggled mightily, putting up the worst full-season numbers of his career.  At this point, he’s a candidate to be waived in training camp (which would still leave a lingering $1.525MM cap charge).

Myers hasn’t lived up to his contract from a value standpoint but he has logged some heavy minutes in a top-three role since joining the Canucks three years ago.  His offensive game has tailed off which won’t help his market two years from now but he should still be able to land a multi-year deal in the $4MM range in 2024.  Rathbone is another player that will be in the mix for a roster spot with Vancouver in training camp and notably received a one-way deal for both years despite having limited NHL experience.  He has the offensive ability to put up some numbers that could quickly escalate his salary two years from now if he’s able to lock down a regular role in the lineup.

Martin has very limited NHL experience with just nine appearances under his belt, six of which came last season where he did well enough to earn the backup nod.  If the 27-year-old can establish himself as a capable full-time backup based on performance and not his contract, there will be an opportunity to add a couple of million or more on his next deal.

Signed Through 2024-25

F Brock Boeser ($6.65MM, UFA)
F Curtis Lazar ($1MM, UFA)
D Tucker Poolman ($2.5MM, UFA)

Boeser’s case was one that had some pressure on it earlier this summer when the qualifying offer deadline was getting close.  In the end, he took less than that number ($7.5MM) in exchange for a three-year commitment.  Boeser produced closer to the level of a second-liner last season and if that continues, this could wind up being an above-market contract.  Lazar comes over after spending last season with Boston on their fourth line and he’ll likely have the same role with Vancouver.  There really isn’t much risk with this deal; $1MM for a capable fourth liner is a fair price.

Poolman is someone whose availability is certainly in question as he continues to try to work his way back from a concussion.  When healthy, he is an option for the third pairing but if he’s unable to start the season, he could go on LTIR and simplify Vancouver’s short-term salary cap situation.

Signed Through 2025-26 Or Longer

D Oliver Ekman-Larsson ($7.26MM through 2026-27)*
F Conor Garland ($4.95MM through 2025-26)
D Quinn Hughes ($7.85MM through 2026-27)
F Ilya Mikheyev ($4.75MM through 2025-26)
F J.T. Miller ($5.25MM in 2022-23, $8MM from 2023-24 through 2029-30)

*-Arizona is retaining an additional $990K (12%) of Ekman-Larsson’s contract.

Miller just signed his long-term extension last week on the heels of a career year that saw him finish ninth in NHL scoring with 99 points.  After splitting time between center and the wing in Tampa Bay, Miller has become a full-time middleman which only increased his value.  There’s some risk in signing him through his age-37 season but if he can even hover around the 75-point mark, they’ll get a good return on this deal.

Garland was brought over along with Ekman-Larsson and had a career year although it came with some ups and downs.  With the extra depth on the wing and their cap situation, he’s someone that could potentially become expendable although they’d be hard-pressed to get top value in this trade market.  Mikheyev’s contract was one of the bigger surprises of free agency as while he was productive last season, he has had trouble staying healthy in each of his three NHL campaigns.  If he produces at the rate he did with Toronto (one that extrapolates to a 32-goal season), they’ll be quite pleased but again, there is some risk with this one as well.

Hughes has quickly become one of the premier offensive blueliners in the NHL and took his game to another level last season.  Considering he’s only 22, there’s still room for improvement as well.  Notably for him, he should still be in the prime of his career when this contract is up, creating the potential for him to sign a max-term agreement that will quite likely surpass the $10MM mark if he continues to produce at this level.  Ekman-Larsson has taken a couple of steps back from the prime of his career when he was an all-situations number one defender with the Coyotes.  He’s still a capable top-four option for now but this contract isn’t likely to age well over the final few years.  They will have to start lowering his usage over the next couple of seasons as a result.

Buyouts

G Braden Holtby ($1.9MM in 2022-23)
F Jake Virtanen ($500K in 2022-23)

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

None

Best Value: Miller (at the 2022-23 rate)
Worst Value: Ekman-Larsson

Looking Ahead

When former GM Jim Benning made the big trade with Arizona in 2021, he knew this cap situation would be forthcoming and now it’s on Allvin to navigate it.  So far, so good as the team is in a position where they’ll be able to waive their way into cap compliance if Poolman is good to go to start the season so no cost-cutting is needed.

Now, the big question mark is whether they’ll be able to afford both Horvat and Pettersson’s eventual long-term pricey contracts into their existing salary structure.  They may need to chop some of their secondary deals over the next year or two for that to happen but as we’ve seen this summer, that’s something that’s easier said than done.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.