Free Agent Focus: Toronto Maple Leafs

Free agency is now less than six weeks away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in mid-July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well. Next up is a look at the Maple Leafs.

Key Restricted Free Agents

D Rasmus Sandin – Having barely played a full season’s worth of games in his career, Sandin has impressed in his young career, totaling 28 points in 88 career games on the backend for Toronto. The 2018 first-round pick can expect a reasonable raise over his $895K AAV on his previous contract, his ELC. The Maple Leafs are currently, like many teams, up against the salary cap ceiling, and will have some tough decisions to make as they try to bring back as much of their roster as they can, while improving too.

Sandin may be a casualty of Toronto’s moving parts, as the team already has Morgan Rielly, Jake Muzzin, Mark Giordano, and T.J. Brodie under contract for next season, all of whom, like Sandin, play the left side. It’s not that Sandin has disappointed or that his raise will be too much to handle, but dealing a 22-year-old defenseman with upside from a position of strength could provide tremendous value for Toronto.

D Timothy Liljegren – Much of what can be said about Sandin, can be said about Liljegren. A first-round pick of Toronto in 2017, Liljegren has spent parts of the last three seasons in the NHL, getting a bulk of his action, 61 games, this season. Liljegren hasn’t taken the world by storm, but has impressed and was a steady presence in Toronto’s defensive core this year, and like Sandin, played a role in helping the much-discussed Maple Leafs defense take a real step forward. Unlike Sandin, Liljegren plays the right side, a position Toronto only has one player signed for next season: Justin Holl. Even if Toronto re-signs Ilya Lyubushkin (see below), they would still need Lilejgren to round things out. Liljegren can expect a raise over his ELC salary, however, it should be one modest enough for Toronto to handle, especially given their need for right defense.

F Pierre Engvall – After two solid seasons to start his career, Engvall found himself having a breakout 2021-22 season for Toronto, setting career-highs in goals with 15, assists with 20, points with 35, and games played with 78. These numbers won’t blow anyone away compared to teammates Auston Matthews or Mitch Marner, but the massive Swedish winger was able to turn heads coming off of a two-year, $2.5MM contract that carried a $1.25MM cap hit, which he is likely now due a raise on and is eligible to go to arbitration for.

F Ondrej Kase – After signing as a free agent with Toronto last offseason, Kase finds himself once again as a RFA. Kase’s case should be interesting, as the winger signed a three-year, $7.8MM contract following the expiration of his ELC in 2018, then with the Anaheim Ducks. He would struggle greatly with injury after being traded to the Boston Bruins, playing in just nine games in a season and a half, and being allowed to walk as a free agent. Toronto would sign Kase for one year and $1.25MM, where he would again struggle with injury, but play to a more respectable 27 points in 50 games. With a rebound on his resume, Kase could be dealt a raise over his previous $1.25MM salary, perhaps closer to the $2.6MM cap hit he signed in 2018. However, given Toronto’s need to improve while balancing a tight cap, Kase could be a candidate to be let go as an RFA, just as he was last offseason.

Other RFAs: D Joseph Duszak, D Chad Krys, D Kristians Rubins, G Ian Scott

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

G Jack Campbell – When it comes to pending free agents for Toronto, no player has a bigger spotlight than Campbell. Toronto’s starting goaltender had an up and down season in 2021-22 after several strong seasons playing part-time for the Los Angeles Kings and the Maple Leafs. The 30-year-old’s first half was good enough to earn him All-Star honors, however, he struggled after the All-Star break and even missed time due to injury. Upon his return, Campbell was again stellar down the stretch before a less-than-impressive showing against the Tampa Bay Lightning in the first round of the playoffs.

After letting previous starting goaltender Frederik Andersen go in free agency last summer, eventually winning the Jennings Trophy with the Carolina Hurricanes this season, Toronto is still unsure about its future in net. If Campbell can routinely be the player he was in the first half of 2021-22, the answer for the Maple Leafs is clear, but his more recent struggles loom large. Those struggles also don’t change the fact that Campbell was an All-Star and has performed well for more than a few games, which should lead to a relatively large salary increase from the $1.65MM cap hit he had in 2021-22. Considering a limited goalie market and several teams having a need in net, Toronto may have to prioritize Campbell and find a number they are comfortable with, then make adjustments to handle the salary cap afterward.

D Ilya Lyubushkin – The aforementioned spotlight on Campbell as Toronto’s primary UFA seems to overshadow Lyubushkin’s impending free agency. A large, physical defender who Toronto acquired from the Arizona Coyotes along with Ryan Dzingel for a second-round pick and Nick Ritchie earlier this season, Lyubushkin fills a role Toronto, as mentioned, is short on–right defense. Arguably their best player at that position, the Maple Leafs will have to do their best to keep a player they know they can trust, otherwise, their options for a cost-controlled right defenseman may be hard to come by. Lyubushkin likely won’t see big money this offseason, but coming off of a one-year, $1.35MM contract, the 28-year-old will absolutely have his own leverage.

F Ilya Mikheyev – The 27-year-old Mikheyev may be as likely as anyone to depart from Toronto. After requesting a trade from the organization, Mikheyev stayed put and put up a career year, finding the back of the net 21 times, a career best, with a career-high 33 points in 53 games. Mikheyev will surely receive a raise over his $1.645MM cap hit the previous two seasons in Toronto, a luxury Toronto likely can’t afford, and though Mikheyev never was traded, his UFA status will give him the freedom to choose where he plays.

Other UFAs: F Colin Blackwell, F Brett Seney, D Teemu Kivihalme, G Michael Hutchinson, G Carter Hutton

Projected Cap Space:

The theme of this article, and likely of Toronto’s offseason, is limited cap space. The team needs to improve if it wants to have deep, sustained playoff success. However, they have just under $7.185MM in projected salary cap space for next season. That’s plenty to make an addition or two, but they first need to re-sign their starting goaltender, one of their top right defensemen, and give modest raises to two young defensemen in Liljegren and Sandin and a breakout forward in Engvall. At that point, an addition would be nearly impossible. All of this before trying to perhaps re-sign Kase and Mikheyev.

One bright spot for Toronto in this difficult situation is its depth. Going back to Sandin, the organization boasts several quality NHL left-defensemen, allowing them to potentially deal from this strength to add a cost-controlled option at a weaker position. The team also has several high-quality prospects that could be ready to make that jump to full-time NHL work, including Matthew Knies, Nicholas Robertson,  and Nicholas Abruzzese.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images