Free agency is now less than six weeks away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up. There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in mid-July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well. Next up is a look at the Penguins.
Key Restricted Free Agents
F Danton Heinen — Heinen joined the Penguins last offseason after the Anaheim Ducks chose not to issue him a qualifying offer, and he did everything asked of him in a depth role for Pittsburgh in 2021-22. Playing in 76 games, Heinen notched a career-high 18 goals serving in a middle-six role on the wing. Every aspect of his game took a gigantic step forward in Pittsburgh this season, and the former Bruins fourth-round pick truly showed his ceiling as an NHL player. 26 now, (he’ll turn 27 before free agency opens on July 13), this is undoubtedly the best chance Heinen will have to earn a big contract in his career. With that kind of production, Heinen could likely earn a deal north of $2.5MM per year in free agency, likely even into the $3MM range. As a restricted free agent with arbitration rights, though, it’s not a sure thing Pittsburgh qualifies him. The Penguins have some higher priority players to give money to this offseason, to say the least, and the arbitration risk with Heinen could be too high.
F Kasperi Kapanen — Kapanen’s second season in Pittsburgh was mired in inconsistency. Failing to take a step forward in his development and even healthy scratched at times, Kapanen managed 11 goals and 32 assists after scoring 30 points in just 40 games last season. A strong shooter, Kapanen isn’t the grittiest or most defensively responsible player either. He’s also eligible for arbitration, like Heinen, but with his poorer season and inconsistent track record, the risk for an intolerable offer is likely lower than Heinen’s. Considering Kapanen’s ceiling as he demonstrated in 2020-21, the Penguins would likely want to keep him around with the hope that he finds that level of game again.
Other RFAs: F Justin Almeida, F Jordy Bellerive, F Kasper Bjorkqvist, F Jan Drozg, F Alexander Nylander, D Niclas Almari, D Pierre-Olivier Joseph, D Cameron Lee, D Will Reilly, G Alex D’Orio
Key Unrestricted Free Agents
F Evgeni Malkin — There’s little left to say about Malkin, who’s cemented his legacy as one of the elite players in the history of the NHL with 1,146 career points and a gigantic trophy shelf as well. More importantly for the Penguins, he had a gigantic bounceback season this year from his eight-goal campaign in 2020-21. Although he was limited to exactly half the season (41 games) with injury, he regained his point-per-game pace and tallied 20 goals and 42 points. With his injury history though, and at age 35 already, anything more than a three-year deal for Malkin would be an ill-advised move. The Penguins will do everything in their power to keep him, no doubt, and he’ll likely take a little bit of a pay cut from his previous $9.5MM cap hit to make it happen.
D Kris Letang — Letang had a monster season, finishing seventh among all NHL defensemen with 68 points in 78 games. He also finished fourth among defensemen with an average time on ice of 25:47. He’s coming off a $7.25MM per season deal and, right now, he’s worth at least that if not more. Also at age 35, though, giving Letang term is a gigantic risk. Letang is reportedly the team’s first priority to re-sign, but it’ll take more than the team’s last offer of just under $7.25MM for four years. Whether or not the team and the player can come to a compromise on term and value remains to be seen.
F Rickard Rakell — Adding Rakell at the trade deadline turned out to be a smart move from general manager Ron Hextall, as the skilled but inconsistent winger scored 13 points in 19 games, reclaiming some of his former glory in Anaheim. Unfortunately, Rakell was injured in the playoffs and registered no points in two games, averaging just 9:26 per night over the two. The 29-year-old is evidently one of the best secondary scoring options the team has, but it’s unlikely Pittsburgh can afford to give him the best offer available on the open market.
Other UFAs: F Brian Boyle, F Evan Rodrigues, F Anthony Angello, F Michael Chaput, D Nathan Beaulieu, G Casey DeSmith, G Louis Domingue
Projected Cap Space
The Penguins are currently over $23MM away from the $82.5MM salary cap Upper Limit, which is top ten in the league in terms of offseason space. Yet signing Malkin and Letang will likely take $15-16MM away from that number, leaving Pittsburgh with only around $7.5MM to work with to fill out the roster. With four forward spots and a backup goalie slot to fill, Pittsburgh will need to make concessions somewhere, either via trade or relying more heavily on their aging stars to carry the workload.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.
Don’t know why but I’d rather let Malkin walk and keep Rakell
I do know why: because three years from now Rakell will still be here, and Malkin probably won’t. Because with their production virtually a wash due to Malkin’s injury woes, no one’s imagining Rakell would cost Pittsburgh north of $9 MM AAV in their worst nightmares. Because Rakell still has things to prove, and Geno really doesn’t: he’s got his Cup rings, he’s got his trophies and accolades, and he’s going to Yonge Street.
Malkin’s obviously still the far better player, when he’s actually on the ice. But Rakell’s absolutely the more cost-effective one.
yeah, go after Trocheck, 7 x $5.5M
“Fenway Sports Group (FSG), which purchased a super majority share of the Penguins in November 2021, is keen on keeping Letang and Malkin in Pittsburgh through the remainder of their respective careers, multiple club sources said. Doing so was part of a written plan Hextall presented to FSG leadership toward the end of the NHL regular season, club sources said.
Also, the club sources said, FSG has identified retention of Letang and Malkin as a way to guarantee that captain Sidney Crosby will play his entire career with the Penguins. Crosby has three years remaining on his current contract, and management is keeping him in the loop “as much as he wants” regarding ongoing talks with Letang and Malkin, two of his closest friends on and off the ice, the club sources said.
Crosby, Malkin and Letang have spent 16 consecutive seasons together as teammates, the most by any three players in league history. They have won the Stanley Cup three times, but the Penguins have won only one postseason series since their last title in 2017 — a stretch that includes four consecutive one-and-done postseason appearances.
Still, and despite one of the deeper NHL free-agent classes of the salary-cap era, management has assessed the best use of resources is to continue building around a core of Crosby, Malkin and Letang, club and league sources said.”
Fenway gets it.
You keep your stars, you honor their careers by giving them the best reasonable chance to win and then let the whole thing collapse into a pile of rubble for a real rebuild.
I agree in principal. Here in Chicago we are a couple years deeper into this and while it’s not pretty, it’s the right way to do it. In a couple cases Chicago got lucky. Marian Hossa went on LTIR and Chicago could ship the last three years of his contract to Arizona for relatively little cost. Seabrook was pretty much the same story. Duncan Keith wanted to move closer to home so there were no hard feelings there and Edmonton was somehow convinced to actually send the Blackhawks a pick for him. The trick is the part where you “continue building around the core”. The Blackhawks’ have not done this the right way. Go ahead and sign some free agents that cover the last years of your core’s contracts so they don’t have to play out their careers with a bunch of replacement level players. Don’t give up future assets and sign long term big money contracts that can’t be moved and will handcuff you years after the core is gone like the Hawks did with Seth Jones.
… well, Fenway SAID it, at least. How many yinzers would be going berserk with fury right now if they’d said “Yeah, we baseball carpetbaggers from Boston suppose Malkin is okay and all, but he’s damaged goods, and yesterday is yesterday, so heave ho?”
They’ve not notably run the Red Sox or Liverpool FC with unusual reverence to sentiment when it comes to player rosters.
The “sentimental” path is also the best hockey path. Likely the difference.
People want to sign Trocheck because he is from Pittsburgh and they think he will give a hometown discount. He will be in demand and will be overpaid. The Penguins will likely bring Letang and Malkin back but the sensible step would be to let both walk, take your lumps, and then go hard after MacKinnon next year and/or Matthews in two years. That would be the fastest way to rebuild. The cap will be increasing in two years so you will have more money to work with and the Fenway Group will pay for stars.
And when you get neither Matthews or McKinnon (because there is literally no reason for them to sign in Pittsburgh) then what?
The end of Sid’s career wasted because you jumped out of the plane hoping you find a parachute on the way down.
Luckily, Fenway gets it.
Keeping Malkin and Letang is wasting the last years of Crosby’s career. $17 or so million could go a long way in free agency to acquire players who would actually give Crosby a chance to win again. This team cannot compete in a league with younger, faster teams with the Top 3 Centers being 35, 36 and 37 years old.
Name those players they would acquire as free agents who “would actually give Crosby a chance to win again.”
I’ll wait…name them.
Because they exist only in your imagination.