PHR Mailbag: Golden Knights, Buyout Candidates, Gibson, Forsberg, Red Wings, NCAA

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the disappointing season for the Golden Knights, possible buyout candidates this summer, Filip Forsberg’s pending free agency, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.

dayvisferreras: How big will the changes be in Vegas?? Vegas should be making big changes and stop creating greener pastures for shiny new toys. I appreciate Bill Foley’s vision but he shouldn’t add more salary to a team with no cap.

Gbear: Simply put, have you ever seen a team choke down the stretch as badly as Vegas did and do you see DeBoer getting fired after this season?

DirtbagBlues: Is Robin Lehner with the Golden Knights next season?

Let’s dig right in with some Vegas talk.

I don’t expect anywhere near the amount of change for next season for the Golden Knights that some do.  Part of that is the salary cap as obviously, they need to clear some money.  Evgenii Dadonov is probably going somewhere and Reilly Smith is a potential cap casualty as a pending UFA.  Mattias Janmark likely isn’t back as well.  If they can avoid taking a contract back in a Dadonov trade, that’s $5MM in savings from next year’s commitments, most of which can be allocated to the three forwards needed to fill those roster spots with a bit left over to apply to Nicolas Roy’s next contract.

Vegas can more or less force their way into a one-year deal for Nicolas Hague as the blueliner doesn’t have arbitration rights.  Accordingly, they don’t necessarily have to make a move on the back end.  I expect they’ll try to move Laurent Brossoit in order to give Logan Thompson the full-time backup job, saving another $1.55MM in cap room.  That’s enough to cover the one-year/no-leverage contract for Hague with the rest going to Roy.  Ben Hutton ($850K) can be waived in a pinch and when all is said and done, that’s a team with no flexibility once again but it’d be cap-compliant.  This is the path they’ve chosen to go and I don’t think they’ll deviate from it even after a tough end to their season.

I hesitate to put the word ‘choke’ on their collapse.  Yes, it’s substantial and over the last few seasons, I can’t think of another team that prominent falling out like that.  But they were also missing a lot of players.  Yes, some of that was by design but Max Pacioretty and Mark Stone being injured wasn’t part of the plan and both of them were far from 100% down the stretch.  They basically had their regular goalie tandem either out or playing at less than 100%.  You take two top-line forwards and a goalie tandem out of a lineup and most of the time, it’s not going to end well.  The Golden Knights created some of their misfortune, no doubt, but they had a lot out of their control go against them as well which is why I can’t call it a choke job.

To be honest, I was a bit underwhelmed when Vegas brought Peter DeBoer in to replace Gerard Gallant.  He doesn’t have a long track record of playoff success but on the other hand, who out there is demonstrably better to lead a win-now, veteran-laden team?  I’d be surprised if he was let go although he’ll also be viewed as someone squarely on the hot seat heading into next season.  Again, they did have some bad luck at the end of the season from a health perspective (and were missing some key pieces throughout the year).  To drastically shake things up based on how things ended this year seems a bit premature as a result.

I do think Lehner returns next season.  The optics surrounding that whole fiasco of him being out for the season but still dressing as backup and being expected at practice was bizarre.  But where else is Vegas going to find a good starting goaltender making $5MM or less for multiple years?  It’s not as if they have a deep prospect pool or extra high draft picks at their disposal either that they could use to trade for someone that’s making a bit less.  If Thompson makes a push for more minutes next season and gets closer to a 50-50 split in terms of playing time, then perhaps at that time Lehner might become available.  But at this moment, I think he’s their starter on opening night.

wreckage: Who is the most likely offseason buyout candidate?

The first name that comes to mind is Predators defenseman Philippe Myers.  His season was nothing short of a disaster and it was telling that after he cleared waivers before the trade deadline (a scenario that seemed unfathomable in the offseason), he was sent to Toronto’s farm team instead of their own.  That’s a pretty clear sign that he’s not in their future plans.  As he’s 25, he’s only subject to a one-third payout instead of the standard two-thirds while the heavily backloaded nature of the contract makes for a rather unique situation.  A buyout of the final season that carries a $2.55MM AAV would give Nashville a cap credit of $617K next season with a cap hit of $633K the following year.  I’m not sure the Predators are the ones that buy him out – perhaps a cap-strapped team views that buyout structure and cap credit as a short-term solution – but I’d be surprised if he’s playing under his current contract next season.

Colin White (three years left, $4.75MM AAV) also quickly came to mind when I saw this question.  We know Montreal had serious trade talks for him at the trade deadline but I can’t help but wonder if it was with the intention of sending a player the other way and then turning around and buying White out in the summer.  He’s also 25 and is thus subject to the one-third cost.  Paying him over six years isn’t ideal but the cap hit for five of those is $875K while the other is a cap credit of $625K.  Whether it’s the Canadiens or someone else, is it worth moving, say, a $3.5MM player to Ottawa for White and then executing the buyout to open up $2.625MM in cap room?    There are a few teams that I suspect would give that some serious thought.

It’s rare that we see a trade and buy out combo (Steve Mason was a somewhat recent example back in 2018) but I think it’s a serious option for those two which puts them at the top of my buyout list.

As for others that could be options under the standard costs, Toronto’s Petr Mrazek (two years remaining, $3.8MM) is certainly an option after the tough year he had.  Even with 50% retention, there may not be any trade takers which could force their hand.  Zack Kassian (two years left, $3.2MM) could be an option if they need to free up money for some of their pending RFAs (more on them shortly).  I’m sure there will be others that get bought out as well once that window opens up after the season.

The Duke: All-mighty MB Crystal Ball, please allow ME to make a bold prediction: Anaheim and John Gibson are not a fit moving forward; viable teams whose realistic winning window in the next 3-4 years are: Boston, Colorado, Edmonton, Toronto, and Washington. Barring a Houdini-like cap space solution, Boston, Colorado, and Toronto appear out; those teams also do not have a young/quality goaltender to send to Anaheim. That leaves Edmonton and Washington. Though Connor McMichael and either Ilya Samsonov or Vitek Vanecek is tempting, MY crystal ball says Gibson goes to the Oilers for Stuart Skinner, Tyson Barrie (salary dump for the Oil and to mentor Drysdale), and a prospect or pick. Change my mind.

Unless Gibson comes out and demands a trade, I’m leery that Anaheim is going to move him.  His value isn’t exactly high at the moment with three straight years of a save percentage below .905 and five years at $6.4MM remaining on his contract.  Don’t get me wrong, I think he could be better with a change of scenery but GM Pat Verbeek isn’t going to be flooded with offers, including from Edmonton.

The Oilers have around $8MM in cap space for next season.  With that money, they need to re-sign Kailer Yamamoto and Jesse Puljujarvi, at least two other forwards, probably a defenseman, and a goaltender.  Adding Gibson in your proposed swap lowers that cap space to $6.1MM for Yamamoto, Puljujarvi, two forwards, and two defensemen.  It doesn’t work.  Edmonton needs to clear money out, not add it.  Skinner’s a great fit to fill the goalie vacancy that Mikko Koskinen will create as he makes the league minimum next year.  That’s not the type of player they want to move.

On paper and independent of the salary cap, Gibson to Edmonton is an intriguing fit (and I enjoy the premise of responding to your crystal ball as a change of pace).  I think he’d stabilize things between the pipes and even stability would be an improvement over some of the adventures they’ve had in goal the last few years.  But the money doesn’t work; they simply can’t afford to add for next season; as it is, they need to cut money (especially if they want any shot at keeping Evander Kane).  And with Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid’s deals being up before Gibson’s, are they going to want to run the risk of that contract potentially impacting what they can offer those two?  I can’t see it happening.

bigalval: What are the chances the Kings could land Filip Forsberg in the offseason? He’s everything the Kings need to land an elite scorer they’re looking for. Also, he and Arvidsson are very tight. The Kings could clear some cap space to make it work only problem I see is other teams have more cap space. Do you think he would be a good fit in Los Angeles?

FearTheWilson: If Nashville can’t re-sign Forsberg who do you consider to be the front runners to sign him?

I like the fit on paper for Los Angeles.  I worry that his deal could be one of those that doesn’t age particularly well but they’re obviously at a point where they’re going to want to add and with Dustin Brown coming off the books, they have more than ample cap space to do it.  His friendship with Viktor Arvidsson doesn’t hurt either but what helps more is that there’s a top-line spot there for him.  Yes, Alex Iafallo was there for most of the season but he’s a better fit on the second line, especially as they look to deepen out their lineup.

Of course, they won’t be the only suitors for Forsberg’s services.  Only two pending UFAs had more points than Forsberg this season and as he turns 28 in August, he can legitimately command a max-term contract.  I expect New Jersey to try to do like they did for Dougie Hamilton and just outbid everyone and Seattle to take a serious run as well.  Many expect Philadelphia to take a run at Johnny Gaudreau and if they free up the cap space to do that, it’s plausible that they could go after Forsberg as well if Gaudreau doesn’t sign there.  I expect most teams with any sort of cap room will inquire so he’ll have a long list of options if he makes it to the open market.

Johnny Z: What new coach do the Red Wings get? There were murmurs of Lane Lambert in the past, but all is very hush-hush at the moment. Of course, that is the way Stevie plays the game…

Also, do you think Stevie makes a splash for a FA?

My inclination is that Detroit will be looking for a culture change behind the bench and as a result, they may be eyeing more of a veteran.  That puts the usual names like John Tortorella and Claude Julien in focus as a shorter-term option to help make a push for the playoffs.  Bruce Boudreau is a different type of veteran coach (more offensive-minded) but that wouldn’t surprise me either.  Lambert would be an interesting fit in that he comes from a defensive, detail-oriented system which is what the Red Wings could use so even though his head coaching track record isn’t there, that could be an option as well.

For me, however, Jim Montgomery is the right fit for them and would be my pick for their head coach.  This is still a fairly young team and he has experience working with younger players from his time coaching in the USHL with Dubuque and in college with Denver.  He has head coaching experience with Dallas and is currently St. Louis as an assistant.  That’s a pretty well-rounded background that I think would appeal to GM Steve Yzerman.  If that one’s a no-go, Paul Maurice is someone I could see him gravitating towards if Maurice is ready to get behind an NHL bench again.

As for going after a prominent free agent, I’m more inclined to lean towards saying yes than I would have been had they retained Jeff Blashill as that would have signaled another year of the recent status quo.  But the coaching change means the level of urgency is heightened and that means Yzerman should be more aggressive in terms of trying to add win-now talent.  They can certainly be added to the list of spots where Forsberg would make a lot of sense.  Whether it’s him or someone else, I wouldn’t be surprised if Detroit adds a prominent player this summer.

Gmm8811: Just wondering about any news on Tennessee State University and the hockey program they want to start, and anything on the Alabama-Huntsville Chargers bringing back their program?

Tennessee State started a fundraiser a few months ago, one that has the backing of the Predators, per a column from Mike Organ of The Tennessean.  That means it’s definitely something that’s on the front burner with the success (or lack thereof) of that fundraiser ultimately determining if or when that ultimately happens.  As for Alabama-Huntsville, there hasn’t been anything on that front since they had to shut down last year.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.