PHR Mailbag: Devils, Trotz, Maple Leafs, Predators, Predictions, Penguins, Quenneville

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Barry Trotz’s market, Toronto’s early playoff exit, what’s next for Nashville, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s mailbag.

M34: With a pretty strong young core and some team-friendly veteran contracts with plenty of room to spare, which UFA goalie does NJ pursue?  Kuemper?  Fleury?

Non-tendered: Another one regarding the Devils — It appears as if they have the assets and cap space to acquire an elite goaltender, which many believe is their biggest need. Is the notion of needing an elite goaltender done? The Oilers are primed to go deep and look at all the goalie problems they’ve had. Carolina is a revolving door of consonants between the pipes. How many elite goalies are there, really? Vasy, Shesterkin, Bob?

I’d prefer the Devils to shore up the netminder for 7+ years to come, but I’m not sure Kuemper, Gibson, or Husso are the ones. Who do the Devils look to to improve the goalie situation and what do they with all their assets?

I had a similar question in a mailbag last month so I won’t dig too deep into who they go after.  But I think the Devils are going to have a hard time making themselves attractive to veterans like Darcy Kuemper and Marc-Andre Fleury.  Kuemper is on a top team with a chance for a long playoff run.  To turn around and go to a team that has consistently been out of the playoffs for a while would be surprising.  As for Fleury, he’s near the end of his career.  He wants to win or play where he’s comfortable.  I don’t think New Jersey fits either situation.

The UFA I think they go after is Ville Husso.  They have the cap space to go higher on the AAV than most teams will so why not go for some upside?  There’s some risk but if they offset that with a capable 1B option (I suggested a trade for Boston’s Linus Ullmark in that previous mailbag assuming he’s willing to waive his no-move protection), the risk would be mitigated to an extent.  That would give them a capable tandem with a big of upside and some certainty; Ullmark is signed for three years and Husso will probably get that long or more.  Some stability between the pipes certainly wouldn’t hurt.  I also don’t think they’d need to part with any significant asset to get Ullmark from the Bruins.

Now to circle back to the question that’s sort of sandwiched by what New Jersey should do.  You make a good point in that there are few elite goalies in the league and of the three you suggested, I wouldn’t put Sergei Bobrovsky in that category.  (If you want a darkhorse candidate for who’s in net for New Jersey next year, it’s him in a cap dump from Florida if they can get him to waive his no-move clause.)  Andrei Vasilevskiy and Igor Shesterkin are definitely in there and Juuse Saros has a chance to get into that group.  But in terms of elite, that’s about it.

Teams are beginning to embrace the platoon option more and more now which makes sense if they don’t have an elite or at least a higher-end starter.  It’s more cost-efficient and is a better hedge against in-season injuries.  New Jersey has tried to go that way the last couple of years and will likely stay on that path moving forward.

Johnny Z: NJ hinted at trading #2 OA. Do you think it could be offered for a player such as Fiala or Willie Nylander?

The speculation about New Jersey’s openness to move their first-round pick came before the Draft Lottery when their pick sat fifth and could drop as low as seventh.  Things have changed since then with them winning the second draw, giving them the second pick.  Now, they have a chance to get a core piece in the draft, either a winger like Juraj Slafkovsky or a defenseman like Simon Nemec or David Jiricek (assuming Montreal takes Shane Wright).  That jump of a few spots really changes the outlook.  If you can get a long-term core piece that should be NHL-ready fairly soon, they’re probably going to be better off keeping the pick.

For me, to even consider trading the pick, I’d want someone either signed or under team control for at least four years, someone that’s going to be part of their long-term core.  William Nylander has two years left on his contract and with how contentious his last contract talks went, there’s little reason to think he’d sign an early extension so there would be a risk to acquiring him in such a move.  It’s possible they could work out a long-term agreement with Kevin Fiala as part of a deal but if management thinks Slafkovsky can produce at a similar level, why not keep the pick and take him instead?

Never say never but there’s a reason teams very seldom trade top picks, let alone trading out of the draft entirely.  They’ll certainly listen to what’s out there but I’d be surprised if that trend changes with the Devils this summer.

2012 orioles: What are the most realistic destinations for Trotz?

Player free agency doesn’t happen for a couple more months but coaching free agency just got a whole lot more interesting when Lou Lamoriello made Barry Trotz available.  He’s probably going to wind up with a raise on the $4MM that he was getting with New York (and is still owed until he finds a new team) and plenty of job security in the form of a long-term deal.

In terms of who is a realistic fit for him, Vegas is the first team that comes to mind.  They’ve set the bar high and Trotz is a coach that has plenty of pedigree and a good playoff track record.  Both of those appeal to an organization like the Golden Knights.  And if the Golden Knights are worried about how things went down with Robin Lehner down the stretch, what better move could they make by bringing in his coach from his best NHL season (2018-19)?  He’s a splashy hire and would give them a boost while they have the willingness to spend big to get him.  I’d handicap them as the top contender as a result.

Flyers GM Chuck Fletcher believes the core of his team is still good enough to contend and will go into this offseason with an eye on a quick turnaround.  Trotz is the type of coach that could them back to the playoffs so they’ll be in the mix.  Detroit GM Steve Yzerman has talked about wanting more defensive structure so they’ll kick the tires as well although Jim Montgomery still feels like the best fit to me.  With Rick Bowness stepping down in Dallas, I’m sure they’ll also have interest although I’m not sure ownership will want to pay what it will cost to bring Trotz in.

The big wild card here is Winnipeg.  Trotz is a Winnipeg native and the chance to coach his hometown team has to be appealing.  They’re in a similar situation as Philadelphia in that they have a roster that underachieved but could plausibly get back in the hunt with the right coach.  Speculatively on my part, if Trotz has interest in being a GM down the road, could he sign on as coach for a few years and then potentially move into the front office with Kevin Cheveldayoff moving up to team president (assuming he’s still around by then)?  The Jets probably won’t be able to offer top dollar though.

Basically, every team with an opening is going to at least call.  It wouldn’t surprise me if a team or two that doesn’t have an opening quietly interviews Trotz anyway.  But right now, Vegas seems like the most realistic landing spot with Philadelphia and Winnipeg being in that next tier of options.

Y2KAK: When do the Maple Leafs win a first-round series? 2023? 2025? 2040?

Put me in the crew that thinks this core can still get there soon.  They played a solid series against Tampa Bay and the final game was basically a coin flip.  They didn’t get over the hump but this was far from choking away the series victories they could (and frankly, should) have had in the past.  As a result, I wouldn’t drastically shake things up this summer if I were the Leafs.

If that’s the course that GM Kyle Dubas pursues, then it’s quite possible they get over that hump next year.  Boston may take a step back depending on what happens with their captain, Florida’s roster won’t be as strong as it is now, and Tampa Bay is going to be squeezed by the cap as well.

Nothing is a guarantee and the questions are going to linger throughout the summer and into next season, as they should.  But I’m pretty confident that this core is going to get through a round if it stays together.  It wouldn’t surprise me in the least if that happened next season.

ckw: With the questionable coaching from Hynes and moves by Poile, where do you think the Preds go from here? Two forty-goal scorers, a record season by Josi and a Vezina-caliber goalie in Saros, and an arguable Calder trophy finalist they still could barely squeak into the playoffs.

A commonly-used phrase in sports is when a team is ‘spinning its wheels’.  That’s a sentiment that I think applies pretty well to Nashville.

First things first, I was quite impressed with their season as I didn’t think they’d come close to making the playoffs.  Even though they went out quickly, the fact they even got there surprised me with the moves they made over the summer.

But here’s the thing.  The Predators are good enough to hang around the edge of the playoff mix.  But how much more upside does their core group have?  It’s probably not much, certainly not enough to catapult them into contender status.  But they’re also not in a spot where they can really embrace a rebuild as some of their bigger contracts (Matt Duchene and Ryan Johansen) aren’t easy to move.  If Filip Forsberg re-signs, he’ll be in that salary tier as well.

With the two-year extension given to Hynes, it’s a signal that they’re going to stay on this path for the time being.  So where do they go from here?  If Forsberg sticks around, they’re probably bringing a very similar team back to the one that finished this season unless they get the green light to spend closer to the cap ceiling which could allow them to add a player or two.  That will have them either just in the playoffs or just out which is basically where they’ve been the last three years.  They’re in that mushy middle and don’t appear to be changing course.  From a sports perspective, they’re spinning their wheels.

The Duke: Oh mighty & all-knowing PHR Crystal Ball, 3 quickies for you here: 1. Where will Evander play next season? 2. Do Seth Jarvis and Alexander Holtz get Top-6 play – and which one has the brighter scoring future? And 3. Does UPL begin his starting assignment next season? Thanks in advance – but then, you already knew I’d thank you.

1) Edmonton certainly will want to re-sign Evander Kane although fitting him in doesn’t seem plausible.  Given his situation, he’s likely going to be looking for the biggest financial commitment and that’s not going to be the Oilers.  My first thought when I saw this question was Los Angeles, a team that has cap space at their disposal with Dustin Brown retiring, plus good veteran leaders like Anze Kopitar and Drew Doughty to take some of the heat off.  Lots will change in terms of who the free agent players could be by mid-July so for now, I’ll go with them.

2) If you’re asking about next season, I’d be leery of putting Jarvis in the top six.  Carolina will have less depth next year but it’ll still be good enough for them to use him on the third line more regularly than the second.  As for Holtz, I think he will see a lot of top-six minutes next season unless the Devils go and add a couple of wingers this summer in free agency or on the trade market.  There’s no contractual advantage to holding him down now (they gained a year of team control by keeping him under ten NHL games this season) and with the way he played in Utica, he’s close to ready.  From a long-term perspective, Holtz has top-line upside while I think Jarvis tops out as a second-liner so Holtz should have the brighter future.

3) I expect to see Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen in the NHL next season on a regular basis.  But I’m not as certain that he’s the starter.  It has been suggested they’d like to retain Craig Anderson to ease some of the pressure of Luukkonen and whether it’s him or another veteran, they’re going to handle a fairly big workload, especially since the youngster hasn’t really had heavy action in the minors due to injuries.  I think he falls somewhere within the 35-45 games played range which is more of a platoon goalie than a clear-cut starter in 2022-23.

W H Twittle: Does Hextall’s tenure in Philadelphia tell us anything about how he intends to manage the UFA situation in Pittsburgh?

Hextall’s biggest UFA signing in terms of newcomers was James van Riemsdyk but in terms of AAV, his next biggest was Evgeni Medvedev at $3MM.  There was plenty of lower-end activity though.  As for re-signings, he handed Jakub Voracek eight years and $66MM so he isn’t against spending big to keep someone either.  He just handed out a six-year deal to a 30-year-old as well with yesterday’s Bryan Rust contract.

What can we glean from that and apply to Pittsburgh’s situation?  Not much, if anything.  At this point, the goal will be to keep as much talent in the fold as possible so they’ll try to keep Kris Letang, Evgeni Malkin, and trade deadline acquisition Rickard Rakell.  Of course, there will be limits to what they can offer but that will be more dictated by their cap situation than Hextall’s own beliefs and limitations when it comes to free agency.

I’m really intrigued to see what happens with the Penguins and how many of their free agents they’ll be able to keep, especially since it doesn’t seem like they can afford to keep Malkin and Letang now without both signing team-friendly deals.  But I don’t think we can really apply anything that happened with Hextall when he ran the Flyers to predict what will happen with Pittsburgh this summer.

Red Wings: Any chance Quenneville is back with the Panthers next season?

I’d put those odds between slim and nil and slim just left the building.  This isn’t a case like Alex Cora with the Boston Red Sox where he served his penalty from Houston’s sign-stealing scandal, got rehired, and things largely went on as if nothing of consequence happened.  The gravity of what happened back with Chicago is much steeper than that and certainly not enough time has passed for him to realistically be considered as a candidate to be hired anywhere, let alone with Florida.  The fact that he has yet to apply for reinstatement from the league at the time when the coaching market is in full flight is a pretty telling sign that he doesn’t expect to be considered for any vacancies this summer.

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