PHR Mailbag: Islanders, Flyers, Sharks, Weber, Wright, Devils Goaltending, Draft, Prospect Rights, Wild

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include what’s next for Philadelphia, Shea Weber’s contract, guessing the future of New Jersey’s goaltending, an overview of how long teams can hold the rights to a prospect, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s mailbag column.

FearTheWilson: The Islanders have one of the oldest teams in the league, limited cap space, lack scoring depth, and need to sign some defensemen this summer. Is there any way out of this mess or will they be just another team who came close but couldn’t win?

Based on GM Lou Lamoriello’s recent extensions, the plan to get out of their struggles is to double down on the current core.  I get why as the core group is decent, Ilya Sorokin is a solid goalie and the way they play works in the playoffs.  With a more normal schedule that doesn’t involve a 13-game road trip to start the season that’s followed by a particularly rough COVID outbreak, they very well could have been in the mix.

They can save some money if they can find a suitable trade for Semyon Varlamov and find a cheaper backup which would allow them to put a couple million or so into their back end (or another offensive forward), that would help.  And with Noah Dobson being the only impact player that needs a new contract, they will have a bit of wiggle room to try to upgrade the roster.

In Lamoriello’s eyes at least, the solution is a couple of roster improvements and stability.  If they get that, then they should be in the Wild Card mix and as we’ve seen, if they can get into the playoffs in 2023 with the group they have and the way they play, they could win a round or two.

Black Ace57: What is the Flyers’ plan? They haven’t really established a core ready to contend and they don’t want to rebuild.

In Fletch We Trust: Thoughts on Flyers HC for next year? Is Chuck gonna stick with Yeo? Or does he (I hope) see the need to go outside the organization and find someone to help change the culture?

Let’s combine the Flyers questions.  The second part of the first question actually is the framework for their plan.  To me, it seems like they think they have enough quality core pieces in place to be a playoff-caliber team.  Make a couple of tweaks, hope for some better luck with injuries (Ryan Ellis and Sean Couturier in particular), and they could very well be in the thick of a Wild Card battle a year from now.  I know things haven’t gone well lately but I look at that team on paper and think it has the potential to be a lot more competitive than they’ve shown this season.

I’m particularly interested to see what happens in free agency.  Do they find a way to clear James van Riemsdyk’s deal off the roster and try to go after a big fish to basically replace Claude Giroux?  I suspect that is their intention and if they can find a way to add another core piece, their fortunes could turn around fairly quickly.  Not to the point of being a contender, mind you, but their approach feels like the target is simply to get to the playoffs and a few tweaks could theoretically be enough to get them there.

Speaking of tweaks, I expect this will be one of them.  I’d be surprised if Mike Yeo has the interim tag lifted at the end of the season.  He’s the holdover from Alain Vigneault’s staff and it’s not as if they’ve been better since the coaching change.  If GM Chuck Fletcher truly believes in this core, a new voice is one card that can be played to try to give this team a spark and potentially provide a culture change as well.  Having someone currently around the team on a day-to-day basis behind the bench would make it very difficult to accomplish that particular objective.

Nha Trang: San Jose: $70 million committed next year to only 17 NHL contracts, and major bucks committed to elderly, underproducing players. Buy out Vlasic? Someone else? Bribe another team to take Burns’ or Karlsson’s contract off their hands? Hold their noses and pray? What’s the solution?

A buyout of Marc-Edouard Vlasic’s contract would only push the problem down the road as the varied structure of the deal actually would yield buyout costs of roughly $4.2MM in 2024-25 and $5.2MM in 2025-26.  Sure, they’d save a fair bit on the first two seasons but that’s only a short-term fix.

They’re going to have to move a goalie – presumably either Adin Hill or James Reimer – which will save a little over $2MM in cap room but most of that will be redirected to Kaapo Kahkonen.  I suspect they will try to get out of Radim Simek’s deal and with only two years left on it, they may be able to find a taker in a swap that would bring a forward back.  Even Nick Bonino’s deal could be replaced with someone making a bit less.

There is, of course, one other wild card – Evander Kane.  Will their contract termination stand without any cap penalties or will there be some sort of retroactive penalty similar to Mike Richards and the Kings in the past?  If yes, how much will it cost?  That will help determine if there is a bigger cost-cutting move to make.

As things stand, I think they can fill out their roster and be cap-compliant next year.  They won’t be any better than they are now but it may be their only viable solution.  They’re in a tough spot and they don’t have the prospect pool to get themselves out of trouble just yet.  In the summer of 2023, Brent Burns is only down to two years left which will make him a little easier to move than he is now.  Vlasic would be down to three years and maybe a move is slightly easier then.  In the meantime, they’re going to need to just tread water.

W H Twittle: Are there teams other than Vegas and Minnesota that may be interested in Shea Weber’s contract? And why?

I don’t think either of those teams would be interested in him at all.  Minnesota’s was suggested as a hypothetical and it was quickly pointed out that it wouldn’t work for them and since then, there has been no suggestion that they’re actually interested.  As for Vegas, why would they take on four years of an LTIR contract?  Yes, it’s quite possible they try for another LTIR deal if they want to try the Evgenii Dadonov move again but there are contracts that can be acquired that are a lot shorter than four years.  It stands to reason they’d opt for one of those.  Ryan Kesler was preferable because his deal is an expiring one and they’d have minimal lingering commitments (just the rest of John Moore’s deal).

While Weber is likely on LTIR for the rest of his career (the league hasn’t signed off on that particular ruling yet which is why there hasn’t been an official announcement), there are lingering commitments.  He still counts against the 50-contract limit, his $7.857MM AAV is factored into calculations for the offseason cap (10% above the Upper Limit each year), a chunk of the salary has to be paid as the deal isn’t fully insured, and if it’s a cap-spending team that has his contract, they have an inability to bank cap space which means that any bonuses earned in a season become a carryover penalty for next year.  This is why Montreal wants to move him even though they haven’t even fully gotten clear of salary cap recapture liability yet with his deal (although the amount they’d potentially be on the hook for would be less than $1MM in total which pales in comparison to Nashville’s number).

So, who might be interested?  It sounds like there were talks with Arizona which makes a bit of sense as they have no intention of spending to the cap ceiling and would rather hang around the cap floor.  With Weber’s salary being lower than his AAV, there’s some potential for savings in total dollars being spent which, with as small of an arena as they’ll be playing out of for a little while, is notable.  (It’s the same reason that they took on Bryan Little’s contract from Winnipeg.)  But they’re about the only viable fit for that contract for now because of how much longer it runs.

MillvilleMeteor: What would a trade package look like for the Ducks to trade up and grab Shane Wright at the number one spot in the draft?

More than they should be willing to pay.  Considering Wright is projected to be an impact center, Trevor Zegras or Mason McTavish would have to be the focal point of the offer with Anaheim also needing to part with their first-rounder which is hovering around 10th overall at the moment.  Considering the almost always exorbitant asking price for a first-overall selection (which is why they basically never move), there’s probably another piece that would need to be involved as well in the range of a late first or early second-rounder or an equivalent prospect.

There’s a high sticker shock with a number one pick and frankly, it’s not one anyone should really be willing to pay this year.  Wright’s going to be a very good NHL center but he’s not a franchise player, not compared to the top picks in the class of 2023.  If you’re going to make the big move and cash in some of those younger assets, it needs to be for someone that you can really build around.  I’m not sure Wright is that caliber of player.

With the moves they’ve recently made, Anaheim is in a spot where they need to stay on the course that they’re on.  Make these extra picks they’ve acquired and continue to develop their young core.  In a year or two when their top youngsters are further along in their development, then they can look towards some win-now pieces.  But in terms of pick or prospect consolidation, I don’t think that’s the route the Ducks should be taking.

SpeakOfTheDevil: Who are the Devils’ 1A and 1B goalies next year? Assuming Bernier is done and Blackwood gets traded.

I’m not convinced Mackenzie Blackwood is ultimately dealt but I’ll play along with the premise and pick a new tandem.  This isn’t a great UFA year in terms of starters.  Darcy Kuemper is available but I don’t think he’d look at New Jersey as a viable option unless they vastly overpaid in salary.  Marc-Andre Fleury probably isn’t going there and Jack Campbell looks like a bit of a risk now.  That leaves Ville Husso who, quite frankly, is also a bit of a risk given his limited track record.  That should limit his market to an extent where if the Devils were willing to take the plunge on a medium-term contract in the $4MM range, that might be enough to get him.

But with Husso’s limited track record, they’d need a fairly proven platoon partner and that’s not coming from free agency.  Let’s turn to the trade front then.  Jeremy Swayman’s season with Boston could be enough to get them to move on from Linus Ullmark’s contract (three years, $5MM AAV left after this season) as long as they get a decent goalie in return.  Perhaps someone like Blackwood who could look better behind the back end of the Bruins?  That would save them some short-term money (which is important with Patrice Bergeron up this summer and David Pastrnak next offseason) while giving them a serviceable second option for Swayman while Ullmark would give New Jersey a more proven partner for Husso.

The combined AAV for the tandem would be on the higher side compared to other teams but the Devils have ample cap space at their disposal and can afford it.  An Ullmark-Husso tandem would certainly be an upgrade on what they have now with short enough commitments in terms of the length of the contracts to not block someone like Nico Daws if he shows he’s ready for full-time NHL duty down the road.

Grocery stick: Can you maybe give some insights into how the teams approach Russian players for the draft? Is this business as usual, or could players be reluctant to switch to North America? Could Russian top talent even drop down to the 3rd/4th round because of uncertainty?

Predicting what will happen with Russian-born players in the draft in a normal year can be tricky.  In this year with these circumstances?  It’s basically a total guess.

I’m going to tackle the North America part first.  It’s quite possible that the CHL places a ban on Russian-born players in the Import Draft which will reduce the number of players coming over.  Of those that still want to come over, will they be able to secure visas or will there be restrictions coming down the pipe?  How difficult will it be to get contract information now that the NHL and KHL aren’t sharing contract info anymore?  These will be factors and that should drop players lower than they’d otherwise go.  Probably not to the extent you asked about but as we get into the second day of the draft, there will be several Russian-born players on the ‘Best Remaining’ lists.

I wouldn’t be shocked to see a bit of a run on Russians over the final three rounds.  Why not take a flyer on a potentially higher-upside prospect even though it may be harder to bring them over down the road?  In the last couple of rounds, there isn’t a lot of risk when it comes to picking players since most don’t make it to the NHL at that point so why not take a chance?  Accordingly, I think the number of Russians that get drafted in July might actually be close to the usual one, it’s just that the distribution of those selections will be different.

trak2k: What is the time limit for signing a draft pick and how long does a team have the rights for a signed draft pick? Is there a time limit for how a pick can stay in say juniors (or whatever leave they came from) once they are signed before they have to go to either the NHL minor leagues or the NHL itself?

This isn’t a one size fits all type of answer but I’ll try to break it down quickly and cover most of the possibilities.  For most players drafted out of the CHL, teams have two years to sign them.  (An exception is a CHL-drafted player that doesn’t sign, re-enters the draft, and is selected again, then it’s only one year.)  The signing date to watch for with them is June 1st.

For most college-bound players drafted at age 18 or 19, teams have until August 15th of their graduating year to sign them.  Generally, that’s four years although some opt for the USHL first, then college.  In that case, rights can be held for longer than four years although players can de-register and elect free agency after four seasons if they so desire.

As for international players, it’s generally four years as well as long as the country they’re from has a transfer agreement in place with the NHL with June 1st again being the cutoff date.  For those that don’t (such as Russia, for example), rights are held indefinitely; there are plenty of players drafted 15 or more years ago from Russia that are still technically on the reserve list of the team that picked them.

This isn’t an exhaustive answer – Section 8.6 of the CBA which covers this is more than four pages long and has plenty of rarer scenarios if you’re interested in really digging into this – but the majority of players that are picked fall into one of these categories.

Zakis: With the Wild extending Goligoski and bringing Middleton into the fold, where do they go with the D group for next season? Does Dumba get traded, will they deal one of their D prospects for prospect forwards or stand pat?

I think there is one big trade coming out of Minnesota this offseason but I’d be surprised if it’s Mathew Dumba.  He brings a much different dimension than Alex Goligoski and Jacob Middleton and it’s one their back end doesn’t have a lot of.  I could see GM Bill Guerin looking to move the final year and $2.25MM of Dmitry Kulikov’s contract to free up a little bit of money but beyond that, the heavy lifting should be done on the back end.  They didn’t go through all of those years with Dumba being in trade speculation to turn around and move him now.

Kevin Fiala is the one I feel could be the odd man out due to their salary cap situation (with $8MM in dead cap being added for the Zach Parise and Ryan Suter buyouts).  They haven’t had any luck coming to terms on a long-term pact in the past and with the year he’s having – 61 points in 66 games – the asking price has only gone up since then.  He’s one I could see being moved for prospect forwards that are nearly NHL-ready which would alleviate the cap constraints.  From there, they’d be hoping that a player like Matt Boldy will find another gear in his first full NHL season and get some internal improvements from others to pick up the slack to replace Fiala’s production.

GBear: In the first five games tonight in the NHL, the five winning teams won by a combined score of 28 to 6. This isn’t uncommon on many nights in the NHL. What ideas do you have to improve the competitiveness in games, and in particular (especially in the Eastern Conference), not have a dozen or more teams effectively out of the playoff race by January?

I wouldn’t really change anything, to be honest.  This season is an outlier; usually, there are playoff races that go right down to the wire like the one we’re seeing in the West.  I wouldn’t want to make any significant changes based on a one-off.

There are always going to be some teams that are out of it early as they’re committed to long-term rebuilds.  Those are the ones that are basically going to be out of it from October and there’s no way to really effectively prohibit tanking.  This many teams, I agree, isn’t ideal but that’s what the salary cap is supposed to be for – to try to ensure some sort of talent redistribution since top teams can’t afford to keep all of their players.  And if you look at the top of the Eastern Conference, most of those teams are going to be forced to part ways with quality players this summer since the Upper Limit is only going up by $1MM.  Some of those players are probably going to wind up on those non-playoff squads, upping the level of parity in the process.

There’s always a case to be made to expand the playoffs, and have a play-in like the NBA has gone to.  That would, in theory, motivate more teams to try to stay competitive.  That’s going to be an option down the road, especially if there’s a sizable impact from a revenue perspective from having that extra mini-series (a single-game situation may not move the needle enough).  But I wouldn’t be advocating for that now.

I agree, it has been a bit boring in the sense that the Eastern playoff teams have been known for quite a while.  But I expect that this won’t be the start of a new trend and that there will be jostling for playoff spots down the stretch next season and beyond.  Accordingly, I wouldn’t mess with anything to try to force a more level playing field from a competitiveness standpoint.

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