Looking Ahead To Andrew Copp’s Free Agency

The New York Rangers were active players at this year’s trade deadline, picking up several pieces, most notable among them, forward Andrew Copp, who the Rangers acquired from the Winnipeg Jets. The 27-year-old Copp is enjoying a fantastic breakout season, on the cusp of hitting unrestricted free agency this July, and will obviously look to capitalize on his excellent timing.

Copp has made work of continuously getting better throughout his career, culminating in what was a, to-date, career-best 39 points in 55 games in the shortened 56-game 2020-21 season. This season, Copp was on nearly the same trajectory, with 35 points in 56 games prior to the trade. However, since being traded to the Rangers, Copp has reached another level, putting up 18 points in 15 games, eight of those points from goals, and capped off by a hat-trick against the New York Islanders this past Thursday.

At 28 years of age on July 13th, the first day of NHL free agency, Copp will still be in the prime of his career, and any contract within range of expectation should see him still as an effective player through its entirety. Some factors to consider, when looking at what the gritty forward can sign for would be his production relative to offense around the NHL (i.e., increased offense league-wide), as well as his general role as a middle-six grinder who can provide offense and how he might age in that role.

Financially, Copp is making $3.64MM this season, the result of an agreement ahead of, and in lieu of, an arbitration hearing. One would certainly expect that he will command a fairly significant raise over that figure. After giving up significant assets to acquire Copp, and with his performance thus far, the Rangers would be expected to take a run at re-signing Copp, but with significant raises for Mika Zibanejad and Adam Fox taking effect next season, the expiration of Kaapo Kakko’s ELC, and Ryan Strome, Frank Vatrano, Tyler Motte, and Justin Braun all hitting unrestricted free agency too, the organization will need to be careful and will have to make some tough decisions.

Now, we turn to a few comparable players with contracts in the vicinity of what Copp could push for in free agency this summer. These include a very similar player in a very similar situation, Jean-Gabriel Pageau of the New York Islanders, and a bit of a “high-hopes” contract on a player who is arguably a slightly better version of Copp: T.J. Oshie of the Washington Capitals.

T.J. Oshie: Eight-Years, $46MM, $5.75MM AAV

As mentioned, the Oshie contract is most likely going to be a real reach for Copp, however, a contract similar to this, at least in terms of AAV, may not be too far-fetched. This season, Copp has 53 points in 71 games following up a strong 39 in 55 last season. Due to COVID shortening Copp’s 2019-20 and 2020-21, and uncertainty surrounding a lower-body injury that is currently sidelining him, we’ll compare the players on a point-per-game basis.

This season, Copp’s production works out to 0.75 points-per-game, a marginal improvement over his 0.71 mark last year. Oshie signed his contract with Washington after the 2016-17 season, which saw him coming off a strong 56 points in 68 games, preceded by 51 points in 80 games in 2015-16. For a fair comparison, Oshie’s 2015-16 came in at 0.64 points-per-game, improving to 0.82 points-per-game the next season going into free agency.

Besides a higher jump in point-per-game going into free agency, what Oshie had that Copp does not, is a similar track record. Before the 2015-16 season, Oshie had already hit 54, 55, and 60 points in three of the previous four seasons, as well as 20 points in 30 games in 2012-13. In the three seasons prior to 2020-21, Copp averaged just 26.3 points. Though track record sets Oshie ahead of Copp, this contract is nearly five years old, and while the NHL is currently in a flat-cap state, the value of players has risen, meaning that Copp could push the $5.75MM AAV Oshie received. Eight years could be where Copp struggles more, considering the difference in the two players’ styles, one could argue that Oshie would be expected to age better as a smooth-skating, top-six, two-way point-producer over Copp’s middle-six grinder with offensive upside.

It should be noted also, that teams and players could look to trade term in exchange for AAV, much the same as the Rangers did when they signed Barclay Goodrow to a six-year, $21.85MM contract or when the Islanders signed Casey Cizikas to a six-year, $15MM contract, both coming just this past offseason.

Jean-Gabriel Pageau: Six-Years, $30MM, $5MM AAV

There may not be a better comparable player for Copp than Pageau. Both are similar players, both enjoyed breakout seasons heading into free agency, and both were dealt for a high price at the trade deadline to be impact players on teams that had their eyes set on a Stanley Cup. Pageau was dealt by the Ottawa Senators to the New York Islanders at the trade deadline in February of 2020, but unlike Copp, he would immediately ink an extension with his new club.

Like Copp, Pageau had truly broken out ahead of his new contract, with 24 goals and 16 assists in 60 games prior to signing, an average of 0.67 points per game. Pageau was injured the season prior, posting 12 points in 39 games, just a 0.31 points-per-game average, far short of his 2019-20 and his career best 43 points in 2015-16.

You wouldn’t be blamed for thinking Pageau has been better than Copp over their careers. While Copp has played in the postseason, Pageau has had a flair for the dramatic in a lengthy postseason career. But, it appears, Copp might be in a better position than Pageau was when he signed (keep in mind, two of Pageau’s deep postseason runs had not yet happened at that point). That said, if Copp is at least comparable and in the same position Pageau is heading towards his own contract, if not better, then six-years at $5MM per season would not only be attainable for Copp, but perhaps a jumping off point in negotiations.

Of course, it remains to be seen what exactly Copp will be able to sign for when his contract expires this summer, and right now his and his team’s focus is to get him healthy in time for the playoffs, and to chase a Stanley Cup. But, as it seems, Copp might look to sign somewhere between Pageau and Oshie–an excellent payday for a player well-regarded for his grit, but far from a superstar.