PHR Mailbag: Sabres, Islanders, Husso, Jets, Samsonov, Detroit’s Defense, Pacific Predictions, Projections, Avalanche

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Ville Husso’s future with St. Louis, whether or not it’s time for Winnipeg to shake up their core, building up Detroit’s back end, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.

@JoeBad34TD: Sabres: It’s time to move on from Mittelstadt, Miller, Eakin, and Olofsson. Miller and Eakin are vets that may get you some later picks.  Mittelstadt and Olofsson are young but not the right fit for this team’s future. Do you see a trade market for these players and at what value?

I agree with you on the assessment of Cody Eakin and Colin Miller – both are candidates to be moved for draft picks so there’s really nothing more to say about those two.

As for the two younger players, I don’t think there’s a great market for Casey Mittelstadt right now.  He has struggled since his rookie season and hasn’t been healthy all that much this year.  With two more years left on his deal at $2.5MM per, Buffalo would be selling low if they moved him.  They’re not in a position where they should be selling low so holding onto him is the smarter play from a valuation standpoint; it’s not as if his value can get much lower than it would be right now so why not hold onto him, make some moves to bolster the roster over the summer, and see how he fits in with the new-look team?  Maybe there’s a better fit and if that doesn’t happen, maybe he produces a bit more to up his trade value.

Then there’s Victor Olofsson.  I tend to agree that he’s not a great fit for Buffalo moving forward but again, they’re not exactly selling high on him either.  He has struggled this year and has just 10 goals in 49 games with a $3.25MM qualifying offer looming large this summer.  If they know that they don’t want to pay that, then it’s a case of taking what you can get now which might be a mid-round pick if the Sabres retain on the contract.  If GM Kevyn Adams is leaning towards tendering that offer though, they might have a shot at a swap of underachieving wingers in the summer.  It’s not going to be an overly exciting return, however.

Y2KAK: What are reasonable moves the Islanders make at the trade deadline?

While they won’t be able to get much for their rentals (headlined by winger Cal Clutterbuck), GM Lou Lamoriello would be wise to try to get a couple of draft picks through moving some of them.  They haven’t had more than six selections over the last three years and only have five for this summer’s draft so getting closer to a full complement of picks would be a reasonable move.

I honestly don’t expect a whole lot more from them.  This is a team that has been good enough to make some decent playoff runs lately so I think Lamoriello will look at this and feel that they could be back in the thick of things next season when they don’t have a massive road trip, get hit hard by positive COVID tests, and have a bunch of injuries.  With that in mind, I don’t know how much he really wants to change things.

One move I could see them looking into is trading Semyon Varlamov.  Ilya Sorokin is clearly their goalie of the present and while they want someone who will probably play a bit more than an average backup behind him, that player doesn’t need to cost $5MM like Varlamov does.  He’s signed for next season and with the trade market being relatively thin in terms of impact goalies available, the 33-year-old could be a candidate to be moved.  It might have to be in the summer but a deadline trade can’t be ruled out either.

bighiggy: With the emergence of Husso, do the Blues look to sign Husso so he doesn’t depart at the end of the season, and then try to trade Binnington? Or let Husso walk and hope Binnington plays better?

The Blues would like to keep Husso and in a perfect world, they find a way to keep both.  Husso is a fascinating UFA case this summer.  He’s having a great year (2.24 GAA, .928 SV% in 24 games) but he only has 41 career NHL appearances under his belt.  Is that enough to land him top dollar on the open market?  Probably not.  But could he land something similar to Alex Nedeljkovic’s deal with Detroit – two years, $3MM AAV?  That wouldn’t shock me.

Now with that estimate, can they afford to keep Husso?  I think they can.  If they opt to let David Perron walk in free agency and fill his spot with someone like Jake Neighbours who is still on his cheap entry-level deal, that might be enough of a shuffle in terms of allocating cap dollars to make it work if they go with low-cost pieces to round out the roster as they’re likely to do.  If they don’t want to do that, then I suspect Husso would walk and Binnington would enter next season as the undisputed starter as if they can’t/won’t pay Husso in the $3MM range, they’re not getting someone that can push for the starting job for less than that.  With Binnington’s struggles, it’s hard to see a viable scenario where he leaves and Husso becomes the starter.

selanne76: Should the Jets make a move to shake up their leadership group? If so, who goes where and what should be the return?

I have to admit, I really like Winnipeg’s core group.  It’s a good mix of veterans and younger players and they’re all capable of scoring.  Breaking that up is risky.  But this core has been together for a while and hasn’t gotten it done in terms of playoff success and even getting to the postseason this year is going to be tough.

Personally, I’d give them one more opportunity next season.  Andrew Copp probably won’t be back and if Paul Stastny departs as well, that gives the Jets some money to work with to reshape the bottom six.  I’d like to see their depth improved as that has been an issue this year; going with low-cost players because they make the minimum or close to it makes the cap work but puts a lot of extra pressure on that top group.

I also could see a coaching change happening.  With Paul Maurice leaving midseason, they were in a tough spot and elevating Dave Lowry to the interim role was the logical choice.  But if they miss the playoffs, it’s an opportunity to bring a new voice and system in; perhaps that gives them the spark they were missing.

If they decided to make a change to really shake it up, my guess would be that Nikolaj Ehlers would be the one to go.  It’s hard to move Mark Scheifele when they don’t have a sure-fire replacement in the system (I like Cole Perfetti as a winger more than a center from a long-term standpoint) and Pierre-Luc Dubois isn’t a true number one and might not have the trade value he did when Winnipeg got him with now two fewer years of team control.  Blake Wheeler won’t bring back much with his age and contract and Kyle Connor isn’t going anywhere.

As for what Ehlers could bring back, it’d all depend on what they’d be doing.  If they were doing a rebuild, a first-rounder and a top prospect would be the key elements of a return.  If it’s a core shakeup, it’d be another top-six winger that’s signed or at least under team control for as long as Ehlers is signed for (through 2024-25).

2012orioles: Even if the Capitals move Samsonov, what value does he bring being an RFA after the season?

Not as much as you might think at first glance.  When was the last time a goaltender was traded in a move that made anyone think ‘wow, that’s a big price to pay’?  It doesn’t happen very often and with the year he’s having, he’s probably not going to buck the trend.

I think Ilya Samsonov can be a starter in the NHL or at least a 1A part of a platoon.  He’s not going to be able to command that type of return with a save percentage that’s just above .900 though, nor is he going to be able to land the type of contract that’s commensurate with that level of a player (high-$3MM range for a 1A, considerably more for a starter) this summer.  Another one-year, prove it type of deal is probably coming.

That actually hurts Samsonov’s trade value a little bit in my eyes.  He has two years of team control left but a one-year deal this summer takes him to a spot where he can opt for arbitration next summer and head to unrestricted free agency in his prime.  The Rangers will likely be moving Alexandar Georgiev for cap reasons this summer, another pending RFA who has had similar hot and cold spells in the NHL and that also doesn’t help Washington’s cause.

When I first saw this question, the word that immediately came to mind in terms of value was underwhelming.  Regardless of whether it’s a futures-based trade or he’s moved for a veteran, any return for Samsonov (if he winds up being traded) is going to yield an underwhelming return.

Detroit_SP: How do the Red Wings address the left side of the defense? They have given up over 6 GAA in the recent stretch and it’s mostly due to left side deficiencies (Leddy, DeKeyser, etc.)

I don’t see a lot of top two D-men in FA that fit with the Red Wings timeline.

Can they swing for Chychrun without giving up Seider, Edvinsson, or Raymond? I imagine Berggren would be going the other way, as unfortunate as that would be. Combination involving him and then from Wallinder, Sebrango, McIsaac, Johannson, Mazur, picks? I’d prefer to avoid 2023 picks given the draft prowess projected.

Target a different defender with term remaining?

Let’s talk about Chychrun first.  The asking price is extremely high and Arizona has no reason to trade him for anything less than a king’s ransom at this point.  The price to be paid is going to hurt so no, a package headlined by a 2018 second-round pick in winger Jonatan Berggren isn’t going to work.  I don’t think they’d need to move Moritz Seider or Lucas Raymond but I imagine the Coyotes would be insisting on Simon Edvinsson as part of the deal and then adding pieces (including Berggren potentially) from there.

I don’t think this is the right time for them to try to fill a top-two spot on the back end.  Detroit isn’t about to jump from missing the playoffs for the sixth year in a row to a contender overnight.  GM Steve Yzerman is all about building slowly so it stands to reason that the shift towards being a playoff-bound team is going to be gradual, not dramatic.  It wouldn’t be shocking to see them give Edvinsson some NHL time next season (he’s signed with Frolunda but as he was a first-round pick, Detroit can supersede that contract).

Out of the pending free agents, Hampus Lindholm is one that would really fit well for the Red Wings if they wanted to make a big splash and while he’s not a big point-getter, he’s a legitimate top-pairing player.  That’s why Anaheim wants to re-sign him and why the trade market for rental defenders is basically at a standstill at this point.  I wouldn’t be shocked if Marc Staal returns either while another depth piece can be added as well through free agency.

Could Yzerman trade his way towards filling some of those holes?  Sure.  But why move those assets out in what will probably be a transitional year as they look to get back into the playoff picture?  Add some pieces in free agency, get a little better, assess where things stand, and then use some picks and prospects as trade currency to add when they’re more ready to go for it.  As a patient GM with both Tampa Bay and now Detroit, that’s the route I expect him to take.

pawtucket: How does the Pacific Division play out by the end of the season?

In a previous mailbag, I wasn’t too worried about Vegas.  They’d get Eichel integrated into their offense and figured they’d be fine.  Now I’m a little worried about them.  Robin Lehner isn’t healthy and Laurent Brossoit isn’t a starting-caliber goalie so that’s a problem.  They now have to either move players to free up cap space by March 21st to be able to activate Mark Stone and/or Alec Martinez from LTIR or basically commit to keeping those two on there for the rest of the regular season as they won’t be able to free up the cap space to activate them after the deadline.  They’re in some trouble.

The only team at this point that I’m comfortable saying they’re in is Calgary.  At this point, it looks like they’ll win the division.  I think Edmonton will get in there in spite of their goaltending.  I feel Vancouver needs to make a move to upgrade to give them that final push to get in there and I’m not convinced they’re going to be able to do so and could wind up selling a piece still for top value.  As for Los Angeles, I’m still not sold on them yet but they have enough flexibility to add to their roster by the deadline which might be enough to keep them in there.

This is definitely subject to change based on what happens over the next week and a bit but right now, I’d go Calgary and Edmonton in the top two spots, Los Angeles and Vegas in a virtual tie for the last guaranteed spot, and Vancouver just on the outside looking in with Anaheim a bit behind the Canucks.

The Duke: Oh, all-seeing and -knowing Crystal Ball: Please rank in order of scoring only the following – and which ones attain their success earlier: Beniers, Jarvis, Perfetti, Zadina, McMichael, and Holtz. Thank you, Mighty CB.

1) Matty Beniers – He has legitimate top center upside and will be going to a team where he will basically slot in on their top two lines as soon as he gets there.  Seattle will be leaning heavily on Beniers and as a result, he should put up points fairly quickly and as a top center, could outscore everyone on this list.

2) Alexander Holtz – He’s the other player on this list that I feel has legitimate top line upside.  There won’t be a need to hold him back in the minors next season for contractual purposes (the nine-game rule) so he should be up on a full-time basis next season and starting in their top six.  Holtz and Jack Hughes could make for an interesting top duo before too long.

3) Cole Perfetti – He’s not too far away from having a spot in Winnipeg’s top six on the wing and with the firepower they have up front, that’s bound to result in some impressive numbers fairly quickly.

4) Seth Jarvis – I went back and forth on the placement of him and Perfetti as they’re pretty close.  Jarvis may be better off in the short term as Perfetti won’t produce in big minutes right away but Carolina is a team where it feels like they’re going to be more of a by-committee attack beyond the top line and I don’t see Jarvis getting to that top line.  He’ll be a valuable player for them but the ceiling is a little lower if the Hurricanes spread things out.

5) Connor McMichael – Playing time will be hard to come by for another year or two so his short-term production upside isn’t great.  But he’ll eventually make it into Washington’s top six and with an older core, he has a chance to move up beyond that as well.

6) Filip Zadina – I could see him still reaching 40 points in a single season down the road but it doesn’t look like it’s going to be with Detroit.  If and when he’s moved, he might bump up ahead of McMichael but until we know where’s going, it’s harder to forecast his output.

@rider_47: With little cap space and no 1st round pick next year, what do the Avs need to do to make a FA splash?

I’d suggest that making a big splash in free agency isn’t what Colorado needs to be doing.  Quick math time.  Colorado has $57MM in commitments for next season to 13 players, per CapFriendly.  Let’s say they can get to the $82.5MM Upper Limit the league was originally projecting.  That leaves a maximum of $25.5MM to fill seven to ten roster spots, likely less than that if they want to leave themselves some wiggle room.

With that cap space, they need to re-sign or replace the following: Nazem Kadri, Andre Burakovsky, Valeri Nichushkin, Ryan Murray, and Darcy Kuemper (plus re-sign or replace their lower-cost veterans that are also unrestricted).  By the time they deal with those players, there isn’t going to be enough left to make a splash.  To answer your question, the way for them to make a splash is to let most of those players go and then add a big name or two to replace them.  I don’t think that’s the best way to go for them (especially with Nathan MacKinnon a year away from possibly taking a run at the top AAV mark in the league) but that’s how they could do it.

mgomrjsurf: Do we have a big deadline day?

I think we will see a lot of moves made in terms of the volume.  The cap situations for so many teams are going to make them have to wait until the last day (or close to it; I’m sure we’ll see some moves next weekend) so there’s going to be a flurry.  Part of me wonders if we’re going to see a bit of gamesmanship with teams that only have enough cap space for one move waiting until close to the 2 PM CT buzzer to not allow their competitors to have time to react.  The last hour before the deadline and the hour after it are going to be fun.

That said, I don’t expect to see a lot of major moves.  The offseason (particularly around the draft) tends to be where a lot of the big ones get done and that should be the case this summer as well.  Even so, we’ll be in for a busy day.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.