PHR Mailbag: Devils, McDavid, Giroux, Atkinson, Namestnikov, Rakell, Predators, Kings, Foote

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag primarily focus on the upcoming trade deadline with trade scenarios and team needs being discussed.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s edition.

SpeakOfTheDevil: What do the Devils do on or before the deadline? Who do you see us bringing in/shipping out?

I don’t expect a whole lot from New Jersey.  We know they’re looking for a veteran goalie just to allow Nico Daws to go back to Utica and I expect they’ll find a way to accomplish that.  They could look to do like Montreal did with Andrew Hammond and bring in a third-string option (if Jake Allen returns in the next couple of weeks, I could see a scenario where Hammond moves again).  If Marc-Andre Fleury stays in Chicago, someone like Collin Delia makes sense as a target.  I could even see someone like Jaroslav Halak if they want someone a little more proven.  If he decides he’s open to a move and just wants to get some playing time in the hopes of landing a contract for next season, New Jersey makes sense.  They won’t make the playoffs but playing time wouldn’t be hard to come by.

I believe they’ll work to find a spot for P.K. Subban as a rental although it’s a move that likely requires double retention so that the acquiring team is only on the hook for $2.25MM.  That might net the Devils a mid-round pick.  He’s the only pending UFA who realistically has a chance to be moved.

One other player that wouldn’t surprise me if he was moved was Pavel Zacha.  He’s a pending RFA but has just one year of team control left with a qualifying offer of $3MM.  Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier are entrenched as their top two centers of the present and future.  Is there a team that still thinks he could be a second liner or a high-end third liner?  If so, maybe he gets dealt.  Since he’s younger, it’s not just playoff-bound teams that could be interested which expands the options.  As for a return, I could see a couple of different scenarios – a third liner under team control for longer than Zacha or a similar-aged defenseman.  This one doesn’t need to be a swap that brings in futures.  Beyond these, I think it’ll be a pretty quiet deadline for the Devils.

pawtucket: With Edmonton once again struggling…even if they make the playoffs, they are likely facing the Avalanche who are incredible at home and far deeper than them…will McDavid be happy being bounced in the first round? (That is if they MAKE the playoffs!).

Could he demand a trade this offseason?

Never say never, I suppose, but I don’t sense that McDavid is the type of player who is going to make that request.  I share your skepticism in terms of them being able to go far in the playoffs and Colorado certainly isn’t an ideal matchup for them.  But from a long-term perspective, I don’t think they’re that far away from really contending either.  They need a legitimate starting goalie and if they can get one, they can do some damage.  McDavid knows that.

What could happen that may be more realistic is that McDavid goes to GM Ken Holland and states his preference to see a core shakeup that sees a higher-priced player moved out in order to acquire that goaltender.  That type of discussion would happen entirely behind the scenes and might not even leak out publicly.  That’s more in line with the more reserved type of player that McDavid is over flat out requesting a trade if things don’t go well this year.

rdiddy75: What would a trade with Giroux going to the Avalanche look like? Any chance the Flyers can get Barron and Behrens in that deal? That would help their blue line for years.

@IWTFWC: Chances that Avalanche acquire Claude Giroux and if so, what will it cost? (1st rd pick, Tyson Jost and Justin Barron?) Also, chances Avalanche acquire Cal Clutterbuck? Or someone else to help the PK/GET PHYSICAL?

Giroux to Colorado has been out there as a speculative destination for a while and at this point, it certainly sounds like they’re a contender (if not the contender) for his services.  I’ve mentioned in the last mailbag that my expected price point for him was a first-round pick, a prospect, and salary filler with the Flyers retaining half of Giroux’s $8.275MM AAV.

I think we have the foundation of what a deal would look like from these questions – the first-rounder (which will need to be 2023 as 2022’s is already gone) and defensive prospect Justin Barron.  (I don’t think Sean Behrens will be in there unless the formula changes to two prospects plus a roster player.)  I like the idea of Jost in principle as a younger player that could benefit from a change of scenery.  Part of me wonders if they’d prefer to move J.T. Compher instead who’s a little better but costs $1.5MM more against the cap this season and next.  That would give them some extra wiggle room to add a secondary piece now and more space for next year.

Colorado has scouted the Islanders lately and they could benefit from a physical winger for the playoffs.  I’m just not certain that Clutterbuck is the right fit for them.  They play an up-tempo style and Clutterbuck is not an up-tempo player.  I know things slow down in the playoffs and maybe he could fit on the fourth line but he’s expensive for that role ($3.5MM) and if they were to add Giroux, I don’t know if they’d have enough money left to add someone at that price point, even if New York retained.  I’m not going to put odds on it but I wouldn’t be surprised if they wind up with someone that plays a similar role and is cheaper over getting Clutterbuck himself.

jdgoat: Could Cam Atkinson be on the move this deadline?

I wouldn’t count on that happening.  While it periodically happens, players with multiple years left on their contracts at big money (Atkinson has three more years at $5.875MM) don’t tend to move at the deadline.  There’s an expectation that the Flyers aren’t interested in rebuilding and will instead do another shakeup of their core.  That happened last summer and that’s when I think they’ll make those types of moves.  That’s when more teams will be willing to shake things up compared to now when buyers are simply looking to add to their rosters, not mess around with their core.

Atkinson has actually had a nice season for the Flyers with 39 points in 54 games heading into today’s game against Chicago which is good for second on the team in scoring (just one point behind Giroux).  I don’t get the sense that he’s going to be the player that moves as a result.  If they believe they’re closer to the playoffs than their record indicates, Atkinson is the type of player to keep, not move out.

Johnny Z: Where might Namestnikov be traded to and for what?

Let’s answer the second half first.  There are two options for a return that are pretty similar – a mid-round pick or a mid-round pick plus salary ballast.  Where the pick falls depends on retention (if any) and how much the player coming back in the second scenario makes.  (There’s going to be a math component involved in pretty much every trade being made, it’s just the reality of the cap situation for many contenders around the league.)

As for where he goes, there are two types of teams where I think he fits.  One is capped-out teams getting 50% retention making him an affordable upgrade on a fourth liner and the other is a team that may want to add to their roster but doesn’t want to move much of their future.  In the first group, Dallas and Washington come to mind as options.  In the second, Nashville, Los Angeles, and maybe Anaheim if they can hang around the race a little longer.

skidrowe: Rickard Rakell to the Bruins…what would it take?

First, extension talks would need to go nowhere.  Second, Anaheim would need to fall out of the playoff race enough to justify selling.  I can see a scenario where an unsigned Rakell stays, to be honest, if they’re still in the playoff picture even with GM Pat Verbeek’s recent comments.  I doubt they’d hold onto blueliners Hampus Lindholm and Josh Manson without extensions but there’s less risk of doing that with Rakell since quality wingers are easier to replace on the open market than quality defensemen.

But that’s probably not what you’re wanting to hear, you’re wanting a rough trade proposal.  Rakell is tricky in the sense that he’s probably not worth a first-round pick or an ‘A’ prospect but a second-rounder or a ‘B’ prospect alone isn’t going to cut it either.  The prospect that comes to mind is defenseman Urho Vaakanainen.  Anaheim’s back end has been weakened over the years and while the 23-year-old may not be a top-four player, he could be a quality piece on the third pairing for a while.  The Ducks haven’t had a lot of success filling those spots lately which would be appealing.

I could see Verbeek asking for a second-rounder on top of that which may be a bit high for his Boston counterpart in Don Sweeney.  However, if Anaheim agrees to take Chris Wagner’s contract ($1.35MM in the minors), maybe that helps.  That would give Boston $225K of cap relief for next season (the rest of the cap hit comes off when he’s in the minors) and clear up a contract slot.  That said, the Ducks are a budget team and might want to part with the final year of Kodie Curran’s contract ($1MM one-way) to offset part of Wagner’s deal in that scenario.  Is that a proposal that could land Rakell?  Perhaps, although I’m still leaning towards them keeping him unless things go off the rails over the next few weeks.

GBear: As is almost always the case, the Preds could use another top-six forward. What second-tier forwards do you think could be trade options for them?

I’m not sure a second-tier forward automatically fits in the top six for a playoff-bound team.  I put someone like Max Domi as a second-tier player but I don’t see him in Nashville’s top six.  Phil Kessel would give them a boost on the power play.  I don’t see the Predators jumping in on the primary targets.  Instead, they’ll look for the value adds and these two are on contracts that will make it hard for their current teams to command much of a return for their services.

On the non-rental front, I mentioned Zacha earlier and Cody Glass hasn’t developed as they hoped.  Could they have a use for Zacha and would someone like Philippe Myers be of interest to New Jersey at a similar price tag?  Artturi Lehkonen fits in a middle-six role on the wing and has another year of team control.  He’s one of Montreal’s more desirable assets though so the asking price could get too high for their liking.

W H Twittle: What piece should/can the Kings get and for what price to guarantee getting to the playoffs? A LD, a third line forward, a scoring forward?

Heading into play today, Los Angeles is three points up on the final Wild Card spot.  They’re firmly in the mix but there isn’t one player that’s going to guarantee them a spot.  They could go get a top rental but they’re a three-game losing streak away from potentially being out and no top rental is going to guarantee that won’t happen.  This isn’t the year for them to go big.

But there’s no reason that they can’t do some small things that could help get them there and not cost their future in the process.  I mentioned Namestnikov from Detroit earlier as a possible depth piece to try to add, maybe someone like Arizona’s Johan Larsson to help on the penalty kill.  A guy like Arthur Kaliyev may be harder to trust in the playoffs so a more versatile veteran may be more appealing to head coach Todd McLellan.  A depth defender wouldn’t hurt either; someone like Buffalo’s Robert Hagg comes to mind.

There’s another reason I’m aiming low here and that’s because their current cap space is overstated.  Alex Edler is expected back by the end of the season and with that, $3.5MM comes off their LTIR cap space.  His eventual addition to the active roster will put their daily spending back over the limit, meaning their banked cap space isn’t as relevant; they’ll basically be looking at Sean Walker’s $2.65MM AAV as what they have to spend.  Expectations on who to add need to be tempered accordingly.  (On the plus side, Edler’s eventual return should be a nice boost to their back end.)

urban shocker: Cal Foote has been a healthy scratch for two games (three if out tonight) in favor of woeful Andrej Sustr. Possible trade bait for a deadline deal for the Bolts for a seasoned RD? Evidently, Bogosian’s injury is worse than originally thought and they may need some depth or Foote to step up (pun intended).

Generally speaking, sitting Foote probably doesn’t help his trade value.  But I don’t think this recent lineup swap has as much to do with Foote as it does Sustr.  Can he be called upon if injuries strike down the stretch or in the playoffs?  They need to assess that and know for sure one way or the other.  I wouldn’t be comfortable using him but they did see fit to bring him back from the KHL last summer so clearly, he still has some fans in the organization.  Foote has been a regular for a while now so they know what he can bring.  Now they need to see if Sustr can help or not and it’s hard to do that with a single game here and there.

The challenge with replacing Bogosian is that they simply can’t afford it.  Whoever is holding his spot on the roster – Sustr or a new player – still has to go off the roster as soon as Bogosian is cleared to return.  Instead, GM Julien BriseBois will likely need to target a veteran right-shot defender that’s currently in the minors that makes less than Bogosian’s $850K that can either stay in the AHL and be injury depth or take Sustr’s spot on the roster for now and go down whenever Bogosian is cleared.  The good news?  It won’t take Foote to acquire such a player, just a later-round pick or equivalent depth prospect.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.