American Thanksgiving arrived on Thursday and with it a shadow that looms large in the NHL. As teams return to the ice on Friday, they have the specter of an unavoidable trend to contend with. Over the past eight years, the Thanksgiving standings have been over 75% accurate at forecasting eventual playoff teams, predicting at least 12 of 16 spots on average. Even though American Thanksgiving only rolls around less than two months into the season, at about the 30% mark, three out of four teams in a playoff spot at that time will have retained their postseason berth when the season ends.
Last year, adjusting for “Thanksgiving” being a games played average given the league’s delayed start, it was even more predictive. 14 of 16 teams in a playoff position on February 21 winded up making the postseason, with only the Philadelphia Flyers and Dallas Stars missing out.
As much as teams outside the playoff picture on Thanksgiving fear missing out when the pattern has been so unrelenting, those clubs can at least be fueled by the desire to buck the trend. The greater concern is for those teams currently in postseason position – and not wanting to be one of the select few who blow their playoff spot by years end.
Below are the current league standings (by points percentage):
Eastern Conference
A1. Florida Panthers (.816)
M1. Carolina Hurricanes (.806)
M2. Washington Capitals (.725)
M3. New York Rangers (.711)
A2. Tampa Bay Lightning (.694)
A3. Toronto Maple Leafs (.690)
W1. Columbus Blue Jackets (.647)
W2. Boston Bruins (.625)
New Jersey Devils (.588)
Pittsburgh Penguins (.579)
Philadelphia Flyers (.556)
Detroit Red Wings (.500)
Buffalo Sabres (.421)
New York Islanders (.375)
Montreal Canadiens (.286)
Ottawa Senators (.265)
Western Conference
P1. Edmonton Oilers (.737)
C1. Minnesota Wild (.658)
P2. Calgary Flames (.725)
C2. Colorado Avalanche (.656)
P3. Vegas Golden Knights (.600)
C3. St. Louis Blues (.579)
W1. Winnipeg Jets (.579)
W2. Anaheim Ducks (.575)
Nashville Predators (.553)
San Jose Sharks (.553)
Dallas Stars (.529)
Los Angeles Kings (.500)
Chicago Blackhawks (.368)
Vancouver Canucks (.350)
Seattle Kraken (.342)
Arizona Coyotes (.250)
Which playoff teams do you think will be the exception to the rule that is the NHL’s Thanksgiving trend, losing their spot over the remaining 70% of the season? Comment with which teams outside the top eight in each conference could steal a spot.
Columbus has a 5-5 record versus the Eastern Conference so far, but are 6-1 versus the Western Conference. If they play .500 the rest of the way, that would put them at around 89 or 90 points. If they improve just slightly against the east and avoid serious injuries, I can see them hanging around. Jakub Voracek has changed the dynamic in Columbus. Having said that, even if the young Jackets did make the playoffs, there’s no way they have a long run with the likes of Florida and Carolina as a probable first round opponent. The Jackets would be better served to fall out of contention for a higher spot in the draft and add to their prospect pool, not to mention moving assets like Domi, Korpisalo and maybe even Laine and play for a solid future and long term success, rather than a short, disappointing playoff appearance this year.
This is an overrated date.
EC – PIT, WC – Nashville