PHR Mailbag: Devils, Kraken, Bruins Centers, Standings, Kuznetsov, Predictions, Chinakhov

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag including New Jersey’s summer movement, Seattle’s possible opening night lineup, Boston’s center situation, picking playoff teams, Evgeny Kuznetsov’s future with Washington, player predictions, and inserting the most surprising pick from the 2020 draft into the 2021 draft.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back for it in last weekend’s mailbag.

SpeakOfTheDevil: Did the Devils do enough this offseason to actually end this rebuild? Do you see them doing anything else this offseason?

Just so it’s mentioned, not long after this question was asked, New Jersey went out and added Tomas Tatar which is another notable move.  More on him shortly.

What’s the definition of ending the rebuild?  If it’s making the playoffs, the answer is no.  For me, this is the summer that starts the end of the rebuild.  Dougie Hamilton instantly gives them the high-impact defenseman they’ve lacked for a long time.  That’s a long-term building block in place that isn’t under the age of 23.  Ryan Graves is an effective blueliner that’s young enough to be part of the long-term core if things go well.  Tatar is a great fit for them; he’ll provide some veteran insulation for one of Jack Hughes or Nico Hischier and should raise the floor of that line.  His defensive skills are also understated given how effective of a two-way line he was on with Montreal.  He isn’t a long-term piece but he should elevate one of those two pivots which helps to end the rebuild.  Jonathan Bernier is a good fit to be the veteran mentor for Mackenzie Blackwood in the role that Corey Crawford was supposed to fill last year.  They won’t have elite goaltending but there shouldn’t be many off nights either.

I think they’re pretty much done this summer.  They still want to keep plenty of lineup spots for their younger players to give them more time to develop, another sign that the rebuild isn’t done just yet.  Once they can determine which ones will be part of the core and which are expendable, then it’ll be time for another round of veteran additions to further raise the floor.  That will be the signal that the intention will shift from the future to the present.

YzerPlan19: What does the Kraken opening night roster look like? Do they make any surprise additions before then? Who is the next William Karlsson breakout candidate?

I wouldn’t be surprised if there isn’t another move or two by the start of the season but I’m thinking more in terms of moving a surplus defenseman and maybe taking on an expensive expiring contract but it wouldn’t be a player that would have a big role.  So with the roster as it currently stands, my attempt at an opening night lineup:

Jaden Schwartz – Alexander Wennberg – Jordan Eberle
Marcus Johansson – Jared McCann – Joonas Donskoi
Brandon Tanev – Calle Jarnkrok – Mason Appleton
Colin Blackwell – Morgan Geekie – Nathan Bastian

Yanni Gourde won’t be ready to start the year after recent shoulder surgery which creates a hole down the middle.  It has been a few years since Jarnkrok played regularly down the middle but I like him on that ‘checking’ line more than someone like Johansson (who struggles at center) or Geekie (not yet ready for that role).  I also expect Matthew Beniers to play in college next season.

Mark Giordano – Adam Larsson
Vince Dunn – Jamie Oleksiak
Carson Soucy – Jeremy Lauzon

Philipp Grubauer
Chris Driedger

In terms of a breakout candidate, McCann feels like the only one that fits.  He has shown flashes of living up to his offensive upside in the past but a bigger and more consistent role could be the key to him showing that skill level more consistently.

sovietcanuckistanian: Not 100% surprised by Krejci uprooting for his home, but it does sting. My query is; as much as I’d love to see an internal candidate pick up his mantle or one of the signings made by the front office pan out in that regard… I’m not going to hold my breath. What/who are realistic options to now plug a rather large hole in the lineup? In the event of a trade, besides DeBrusk going the other way, who would also be prime pickings to be dealt – should a decent trade option present itself?

VonBrewski: Sweeney’s comments of “2nd line center by committee” are absolutely shocking to me. He let Krejci paint him into a corner. I appreciate what Krejci did for the club but doesn’t it seem that with Krejci’s timing and Sweeney not having a backup plan that they both screwed the Bruins? Sweeney does not impress me as a GM at all.

Let’s combine the Krejci questions together.

I hate to be the bearer of bad news here but I don’t see much in the way of viable options for a top-six center to take David Krejci’s position on the roster.  There weren’t many in free agency and in terms of ones they can afford on the cap (in other words, not Jack Eichel or Evgeny Kuznetsov), pickings are pretty slim.  They’ve been speculatively linked to Arizona’s Christian Dvorak which certainly makes sense.  I just don’t think they have the pieces to make it work for the Coyotes.  With the 25-year-old carrying a $4.45MM AAV for four more years, the asking price is going to be high.  Speculatively, I’d expect something in the equivalent of two first-rounders – one pick and one prospect worth that.  They’d want more than that to take on Jake DeBrusk coming off the year he had and his salary too.  I think someone like Fabian Lysell would be a prospect that would fit one hole but with Boston being a team that’s expected to contend for a top-three seed, their projected 2022 first-rounder may be worse than what other teams are offering.  Dvorak would be a great fit but I’m not sure a trade lines up.  If Calgary winds up adding a center via trade, someone like Sean Monahan would make some sense as well although matching money would be a bit tougher.

Beyond that, I’m going to take Sweeney at his word and say it will be filled internally by committee.  Charlie Coyle is going to get the first chance and is the logical choice.  I think Nick Foligno will be an option at some point; he played down the middle frequently with Columbus when there were injuries.  I really liked the Erik Haula signing; he works well as a third center but at times, he has played well enough to be in the top six.  I’m not saying it won’t be an issue but as far as internal options go, they’re not particularly bad.

That’s not absolving GM Don Sweeney entirely, however.  This is something that they haven’t really planned for well over the past few years other than the Coyle acquisition since he had played down the middle with Minnesota at times.  But it’s not all his fault either.  When you’re picking at the back of the first round (or not at all in the first round having traded picks for win-now help), this is what happens.  There’s a reason that impact centers – even second-liners – are hard to come by.  Alexander Wennberg just got $4.5MM per season less than a calendar year after Columbus bought him out.  At best, he’s a second-liner.  Impact centers are the hardest piece to acquire and for a long time, Boston had two of them.  Yes, Sweeney failed in terms of not having a proven backup plan but that’s hardly a problem unique to the Bruins; many teams are or have been in the same situation.

As for Krejci, he earned the right to make the decision when he did and it sounds like he had at least informed Boston that he was leaning in that direction.  I don’t think there’s much blame for him in this.  And Sweeney certainly hasn’t closed the door on him returning at some point either although that’s easier said than done in terms of making it work on the salary cap.

mikedickinson: Major wave of free agency done… Give me your top eight in the East and top eight in the West after the additions and subtractions of players.

Subject to change as I don’t think all of the notable moves on the trade front are all done just yet, here’s a quick guess at the playoff teams as things stand (in no particular order).

Atlantic: Tampa Bay, Boston, Florida
Metropolitan: Carolina, Washington, NY Islanders
East Wild Cards: Toronto, Philadelphia

Central: Colorado, Winnipeg, St. Louis
Pacific: Vegas, Edmonton, Vancouver
West Wild Cards: Dallas, Chicago

2012orioles: Capitals have taken back the idea of trading Kuznetsov. Is this just a tactic to get a better return? Or will he truly be a Capital opening night?

I don’t think it’s a tactic.  As much as there is some negativity surrounding Evgeny Kuznetsov, he’s still a legitimate top-six center and when he’s on, he’s still a top-liner.  They can’t afford to give away that type of talent at a steep discount with an aging Nicklas Backstrom and Lars Eller (who is much better on the third line than the second) in the wings; Connor McMichael isn’t ready yet.

On the flip side, other teams aren’t going to want to pay top dollar with how last year went, especially with a $7.8MM price tag for four more years which looks like above-market value at this point.  There’s definitely a market for Kuznetsov but it’s more a swap of big contracts in the hopes that the change of scenery gets them going.  Is that the type of deal that they should really be doing?  I don’t think so.

They’ve found a way to get cap compliant for next season so they’re not in a spot where they have to move him.  If they don’t get fair value, they can simply hold on to him.  I don’t think he’d fetch fair value in a trade so I don’t think this is a tactic by any stretch.  I expect Kuznetsov will be in a Washington uniform for their opener.

The Duke: Dear PHRM Crystal Ball [insert spooky harp music here]: 1. Success or Failure for Adin Hill and Connor Ingram? 2. Does Gibson get traded; if so, to where? 3. Better scoring Futures between Valimaki/Fabbro, Sharangovich/Podkolzin, Kotkov/Tkachyov and Krebs/Newhook? Thanks!

1) Even though he’s going from one non-playoff team to another non-playoff team, Hill was a big winner of the summer.  He’s about to get the opportunity to be a 1A goalie with San Jose and I didn’t see a team giving him that opportunity.  Will he become a legitimate starter?  I don’t think so but if he can even show himself to be a 30-35-game player, that’d be a success in my books after being on the fringes with Arizona.  As for Ingram, the David Rittich signing success they intend to waive Ingram and send him to the minors.  If he bounces back in the AHL, maybe that gets him a look as Juuse Saros’ backup in 2022-23.  I’m leaning towards him not having a lot of long-term NHL success but only slightly as he’s still young enough to establish himself.

2) It sure feels like John Gibson should have been traded a couple of years ago, doesn’t it?  It makes no sense for Anaheim to go through a rebuild with a veteran like him between the pipes but I think he stays.  Most of the vacancies are filled and Arizona and Buffalo aren’t going to pay up for a veteran starter.  Gibson having a better start to next season would also help his chances of being dealt; he’s not exactly coming off a good year which doesn’t help his trade value.

3) Juuso Valimaki/Dante Fabbro – I think both have 20-25-point ceilings so this is more or less a toss-up.  Fabbro could get there quicker as Nashville should give him a longer leash next season with them seemingly eyeing the future.

Yegor Sharangovich/Vasili Podkolzin – I wouldn’t be shocked if Sharangovich’s numbers dip as better players move up the lineup, pushing him down on the depth chart.  Podkolzin is a big wild card but if he establishes himself as a top-six player, he’ll have the most production.

Vladislav Kotkov/Vladimir Tkachyov – I still have my doubts about Kotkov being a big point producer in the NHL and I think Tkachyov can step in and play quickly with the Kings.  Ceiling wise, it’s Tkachyov but if there isn’t early success, he’s a candidate to head back to the KHL next summer which would then give the nod to Kotkov.

Peyton Krebs/Alex Newhook – I see both as being 45-50-point players most years as second-line centers so this is another toss-up.  I’ll lean towards the stronger offensive environment which is Colorado so the slight edge would be Newhook.

Baji Kimran: Last year, the Blue Jackets caught everyone off guard when they selected Yegor Chinakhov with their first-round pick (21st overall). At the time, little was known about Chinakhov, but Columbus felt they had to move because they did not have another pick before the fourth round and Ottawa (whom Columbus suspected was in on Chinakhov) had five picks before Columbus would have their next pick in the fourth round. Given what we know about Chinakhov today, where do you think he would have gone in this year’s draft had Columbus not selected him last year?

Typically, 20-year-olds don’t go in the first round (Tanner Pearson came close back in 2012) but teams don’t hesitate to try them in the second round – look at Janis Moser this year and Egor Sokolov last fall for recent examples.  But this also wasn’t a typical year and with limited viewings of most of the CHL prospects, the fact that teams would have had a bigger book on Chinakhov including a good showing in the KHL may have boosted him back into the back of the first round this year.  I don’t think he’d have gone top-20 though to beat his actual draft slot.  That pick is still one of the gutsier first-round selections in recent years given where he was ranked by pretty much everyone outside of Columbus.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Cap and salary information courtesy of CapFriendly.