Offseason Checklist: Colorado Avalanche

The offseason is in full flight with the draft and free agency fast approaching.  We continue our series which examines what each team needs to accomplish over the coming weeks and months.  Next up is a look at Colorado.

This was a season that some felt might be Colorado’s best time to take a run at the Stanley Cup with some core players on team-friendly contracts, allowing them the flexibility to add Brandon Saad last offseason.  However, things didn’t go as planned as they were eliminated by Vegas in the second round.  Now, GM Joe Sakic has considerable cap room at his disposal but several key players in need of new deals.  Accordingly, Colorado’s checklist this summer revolves primarily around those pending free agents.

Re-Sign Makar

Before digging into the notable UFAs, let’s look at the big RFA first.  Makar has been an impact player since joining the Avs for the 2019 playoffs where he left college and played a regular role right away.  From there, he has become one of the most dynamic offensive threats in the league from the back end and was the runner up in Norris Trophy voting while recording 44 points in 44 games this past season.

Generally speaking, players that don’t have the longest of track records typically can’t command the long-term, big-money contract.  Makar technically falls into this category as two abbreviated regular seasons have left him with just 101 regular season contests under his belt, roughly a year and a quarter of a full 82-game campaign.  However, how much more does he really have to prove at this point?  He’s already a premier talent and that’s not going to change.

Accordingly, Makar should be one of the exceptions to the rule in that someone with that few games played can command a long-term deal if he wants one (which isn’t a guarantee with the current cap landscape).  There aren’t many comparable players to work from but Ottawa’s Thomas Chabot had inked the richest post-entry-level contract by a defenseman at eight years and $64MM.  That just changed with the eight-year, $67.6MM deal that Dallas gave to Miro Heiskanen on Saturday.  If he gets a max-term contract, his agent will undoubtedly be working off the templates of these two deals.

Sign A Starting Goalie

Three goalies posted a goals against average below two in 2020-21.  One won the Vezina, one played a dominant half-season in Carolina, and the other is Philipp Grubauer whose timing for such a season was perfect as he’s set to hit the open market later this month.  He now stands atop the free agent class for goaltenders which has him well-positioned for a substantial raise on the $3.33MM AAV he had on his most recent contract.  Considering some of the goalies that have signed in recent years such as Matt Murray, Jordan Binnington, and Jacob Markstrom, Grubauer has a legitimate chance of doubling his previous price tag despite never playing more than 40 games in a season, a mark he reached this year for the first time.

One question for Colorado is can they afford to pay their starter that much knowing they need to save big money for Makar’s deal, the fact they have another key UFA to bring back (more on him shortly), and have Nathan MacKinnon up for a lucrative new contract two years from now.  They can only afford so many big-ticket deals on the books.

However, can they afford to not bring Grubauer back?  There is plenty of uncertainty with backup Pavel Francouz who missed the entire season due to a lower-body injury and it’s not as if he’s particularly proven in the NHL with all of 36 career NHL regular season contests.  They need a proven starter and while Grubauer doesn’t have the longest track record, it’s a better one than any of the other viable free agents out there.  They don’t need elite-level goaltending with the caliber of the team in front of him and keeping Grubauer around would give them some long-term stability between the pipes.

If they can’t agree to terms with him, the plan may shift to trying a short-term platoon and there are enough veterans available to make this an option.  It’s not a long-term solution though and shouldn’t be their primary plan heading into free agency while the trade market could yield some more intriguing options at a higher acquisition cost.  This will need to be addressed quickly as it’s hard to see any viable options left by the time the calendar flips to August.

Re-Sign Or Replace Landeskog

Onto the other significant pending UFA.  Gabriel Landeskog has been a fixture in Colorado’s lineup for the last decade after being the second-overall pick in 2011.  He has spent the majority of his time on their top line and has been on a bargain contract throughout his career as after his entry-level deal expired, he played on a seven-year deal with a $5.571MM cap hit which is certainly below market value for a top liner.  The captain has made it clear that he wants to stay and has even publicly voiced his frustration over the fact a deal isn’t done.

So what’s the holdup?  Salary is one thing – he’s heading for a raise in Colorado or elsewhere despite the reported recent offers from the Avs – but speculatively, I think the term of a new deal may be the bigger issue in discussions.  Yes, Landeskog is only 28 but with over 700 career games played (regular season and playoffs), that’s a fair bit of mileage.  He also plays a rugged style, one that doesn’t necessarily tend to age well which adds a layer of risk to any deal that approaches the eight-year maximum which is why the reported eight-year offer from the Avalanche to Landeskog is as low as it is.  Is there a happy medium that takes a year or two off the term of the contract but keeps it at an affordable price point for the team?  Having that option could very well push things along.

If they can’t work out an agreement, that’s a big hole for the Avalanche to fill.  Re-signing Saad becomes a more viable option but if not, they could be a player in free agency to try to find someone to step onto the top line.  But there are still nearly two weeks before Landeskog gets to the open market.  It’s hard to see Colorado giving up on the prospect of re-signing their captain until he puts pen to paper elsewhere.

Center Decisions

With MacKinnon in place, there are no questions about their top center.  J.T. Compher is still in the mix for now although we’ll see what happens with him being made available to Seattle.  Things could change fairly quickly after that, however.

Nazem Kadri is coming off another quality season on the second line and is signed for this season with a $4.5MM price tag before becoming an unrestricted free agent next summer.  Of course, the question stems from what happened in the playoffs when he received an eight-game suspension for an illegal check to the head on Blues defenseman Justin Faulk.  It wasn’t his first notable incident either and the number of games per suspension is going up from here.  Is Colorado prepared to move forward with him or will they be better off trying someone else who could be a longer-term option in that role?

Then there’s Tyson Jost.  He was the tenth-overall pick in 2016 but he hasn’t been able to establish himself as more than a role player.  He’s arbitration-eligible for the first time this summer after accepting his qualifying offer in the fall but his projected role hasn’t changed as he’s still a bottom-six option.  Now 23, is he someone that would be better suited with a change of scenery?  They’d be selling low but another year like his last few would send Jost’s value even lower.

There’s also Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, their fourth-line pivot for the last two years who is set to be an unrestricted free agent at the end of the month.  He isn’t a major point producer but has been a fixture on their penalty kill and well above average at the faceoff dot.  He’s also 36 and clearly not in anyone’s long-term plans.  Is that spot better suited for someone closer to the league minimum or someone younger?  At this point, it seems like he won’t be back.

Sakic will have some decisions to make about his middlemen in the coming weeks.  The end result could be a group that’s a fair bit different than the one that finished up the season.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.