Analyzing 2021 NHL Draft Capital

Draft picks are not created equal, that much is certain. While there is randomness and unpredictability inherent in any professional sports draft, higher picks still have a higher likelihood of success. That decline in value is not linear, either, as early picks hold much greater weight. However, it is difficult to judge just how valuable one selection may be compared to another or, in the process of making a trade, several. Many sources have tried to quantify the value of draft picks based on historical data. The Athletic’s Dom Luszczyszyn produced one of the more recent models ahead of last year’s NHL Entry Draft. Using an aggregate statistic known as Game Score Value Added, or GSVA, Luszczyszyn ranked all draft picks on how the average selection pans out in the NHL. Not only was the drop-off not linear, it showed an incredibly steep decline that all but flatlined after the third round. Using that model, it is clear that quality is greater than quantity when it comes to the NHL Draft, though a quantity of quality picks is the ultimate prize

How does that play out this year? Here is a look at each team’s draft capital in the upcoming draft by total GSVA to provide, as well as an idea of how they might be able to use it to move up and down the draft board, adding high value picks or adding additional picks, based on number of selections, specific draft slots, and prospect depth. Though draft pick trades are not nearly as common in the NHL as in some other major North American sports, in a deep and unpredictable draft later this month there could be a shift in the status quo.

1. Buffalo Sabres
No. of Picks: 10
Total GSVA: 24.9
Potential Draft Move: Trade Up Into First Round

2. Detroit Red Wings
No. of Picks: 12
Total GSVA: 19.5
Potential Draft Move: Trade Up In First Round

3. Seattle Kraken
No. of Picks: 7
Total GSVA: 16.9
Potential Draft Move: Trade Back In First Round

4. Columbus Blue Jackets
No. of Picks: 9
Total GSVA: 16.7
Potential Draft Move: Trade Up In First Round

5. New Jersey Devils
No. of Picks: 8
Total GSVA: 15.3
Potential Draft Move: Trade Up In First Round

6. Anaheim Ducks
No. of Picks: 7
Total GSVA: 14.9
Potential Draft Move: Trade Back In Second Round

7. Ottawa Senators
No. of Picks: 6
Total GSVA: 11.4
Potential Draft Move: Trade Up Into First Round

8. Minnesota Wild
No. of Picks: 9
Total GSVA: 11
Potential Draft Move: Trade Up In First Round

9. Los Angeles Kings
No. of Picks: 7
Total GSVA: 10.7
Potential Draft Move: Trade Up Into Second Round

10. Vancouver Canucks
No of Picks: 8
Total GSVA: 10.2
Potential Draft Move: Trade Back In Second Round
11. Chicago Blackhawks
No. of Picks: 8
Total GSVA: 9.8
Potential Draft Move: Trade Up In Second Round

T-12. Nashville Predators
No of Picks: 8
Total GSVA: 9.6
Potential Draft Move: Trade Up Into First Round

T-12. San Jose Sharks
No of Picks: 8
Total GSVA: 9.6
Potential Draft Move: Trade Back In Third Round

14. Calgary Flames
No. of Picks: 7
Total GSVA: 9
Potential Draft Move: Trade Up Into Second Round

15. Philadelphia Flyers
No. of Picks: 7
Total GSVA: 8.4
Potential Draft Move: Trade Up In Second Round

16. Dallas Stars
No. of Picks: 7
Total GSVA: 8.2
Potential Draft Move: Trade Back In First Round

17. New York Rangers
No. of Picks: 9
Total GSVA: 8.1
Potential Draft Move: Trade Back In First Round

18. Montreal Canadiens
No. of Picks: 11
Total GSVA: 8
Potential Draft Move: Trade Up In First Round

19. Winnipeg Jets
No. of Picks: 4
Total GSVA: 6.8
Potential Draft Move: Trade Back In Third Round

20. Carolina Hurricanes
No. of Picks: 8
Total GSVA: 6.4
Potential Draft Move: Trade Up In Second Round

21. Vegas Golden Knights
No. of Picks: 6
Total GSVA: 6.1
Potential Draft Move: Trade Up In First Round

T-22. St. Louis Blues
No. of Picks: 5
Total GSVA: 5.8
Potential Draft Move: Trade Back In First Round

T-22. Arizona Coyotes
No. of Picks: 6
Total GSVA: 5.8
Potential Draft Move: Trade Back In Second Round

24. Florida Panthers
No. of Picks: 6
Total GSVA: 5.6
Potential Draft Move: Trade Back In Second Round

25. Boston Bruins
No. of Picks: 7
Total GSVA: 5.4
Potential Draft Move: Trade Back In First Round

26. Edmonton Oilers
No. of Picks: 5
Total GSVA: 4.8
Potential Draft Move: Trade Back In Fourth Round

27. Colorado Avalanche
No. of Picks: 3
Total GSVA: 3.6
Potential Draft Move: Trade Back In Third Round

28. Washington Capitals
No. of Picks: 5
Total GSVA: 2.9
Potential Draft Move: Trade Back In Third Round

29. New York Islanders
No. of Picks: 6
Total GSVA: 2.4
Potential Draft Move: Trade Up In Second Round

T-30. Toronto Maple Leafs
No. of Picks: 3
Total GSVA: 1.7
Potential Draft Move: Trade Back In Second Round

T-30. Pittsburgh Penguins
No. of Picks: 5
Total GSVA: 1.7
Potential Draft Move: Trade Up Into Fourth Round

32. Tampa Bay Lighting
No. of Picks: 6
Total GSVA: 1.2
Potential Draft Move: Trade Up Into Fourth Round