PHR Mailbag: San Jose’s Defense, Seattle, Larkin, Islanders, Hamilton, Bruins, Oilers, Flyers, Laine

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include San Jose’s expansion situation for their back end, potential side deals and targets for Seattle, Dylan Larkin’s future with Detroit, how to free up cap space for the Islanders, Dougie Hamilton’s trade value, Boston’s drafting, Edmonton’s need for better complementary forwards, Philadelphia’s summer, and Patrik Laine.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.

The Mistake of Giving Eugene Melnyk a Liver Transplant: Could Doug Wilson convince Vlasic and Karlsson to waive their NMCs and then protect 8 forwards/0 defensemen?

That’s certainly a creative idea although it would be tricky to do that and stay in compliance with the requirement for having two signed forwards under contract that played 27 games this year or 54 in the past two combined.  When Gavin looked at their expansion situation last week, they were at zero eligible forwards to begin with.  Adding an extra forward to the protected list is going to make fulfilling that particular obligation that much tougher.

But if they can sign enough forwards that qualify to do that, it would definitely be an avenue worth pursuing.  Marc-Edouard Vlasic and Erik Karlsson aren’t getting picked because of their contract and neither is Brent Burns.  That would certainly limit their exposure to either losing Radim Simek, Josef Korenar (as a depth goalie), or a depth forward.  If they can do that, they’d come out of expansion as one of the more fortunate teams in the league.

jdgoat: Who do you think works out a side deal with Seattle? Also, who will be the most expensive players they end up with?

Washington looks like a strong candidate given that they have to keep their cheap goaltending tandem intact.  There’s no way to protect both Ilya Samsonov and Vitek Vanecek and whichever one is unprotected would be tempting for the Kraken so a move will need to be made there.  Tampa Bay is certainly going to try to make a move to entice Seattle to take a pricey contract (Tyler Johnson seems like the speculative fit there).  Calgary could very well wind up leaving Mark Giordano unprotected but it’s hard to imagine they won’t try to find a way to keep their captain around.  If Minnesota can’t find a trade taker for Mathew Dumba in time, they’ll undoubtedly try to make a side deal as well to avoid losing him for nothing.  The same can be said for St. Louis and Vince Dunn.

I think the most expensive player they wind up with may very well come from Philadelphia.  Jakub Voracek ($8.25MM) and James van Riemsdyk ($7MM) could both be unprotected and would jump onto Seattle’s top line right away.  Both commitments are relatively short-term (three years for Voracek, two for van Riemsdyk) so there isn’t much long-term risk here.  I can’t see anyone more expensive than one of those two being selected.

pawtucket: Which UFAs should Seattle go after to compliment the plethora of 3rd line forwards and 5th/6th d-men they get from the expansion draft?

A lot depends on their plans.  Are they looking to win right away or are they eyeing a more gradual buildup which is what most expansion teams wind up going through?  If it’s the former, then they’re going to go after the likes of Dougie Hamilton and Gabriel Landeskog if they get to the open market.  If it’s the latter, however (and I suspect it is), then it’s all about short-term contracts.

Why?  Rental players are always in demand but in this cap environment, not having lingering obligations beyond the current season is even more appealing.  So if I’m GM Ron Francis and thinking more about two or three years from now, I want players that are easy to flip for extra picks or prospects to start building up their system.  They won’t have an AHL team next season but Palm Springs will start in 2022-23 so what’s a good way to start building that team?  By flipping a bunch of rentals at the trade deadline.

Who can still contribute to a team but will likely be stuck taking a one-year deal in free agency?  It’s a long list and that’s where Seattle should be shopping on the open market.

Eaton Harass: Any chance Larkin is available? He’d be a perfect fit for a team like the Avs or Rangers. They definitely have the pieces to get it done.

I don’t think Dylan Larkin is available or should be but I’ll qualify that by noting that I remember writing in a previous mailbag that Anthony Mantha wouldn’t be going anywhere at the deadline and we all know how that turned out.  Teams need capable veteran leadership and while Larkin isn’t exactly a veteran, he’s pretty close to one on this team.  He’s also young enough to be part of that next core which is still probably a few years away.  It’s worth noting that he’s an unrestricted free agent in 2023 and if he gives an indication that he doesn’t want to stay, then yes, move him.  But that feels like a discussion to be had next summer when he’s eligible for a contract extension more than one that needs to happen now.

I’m not sure either Colorado or New York would be a perfect fit either.  If the Avs are able to keep Gabriel Landeskog and Philipp Grubauer (both pending UFAs), they’ll pretty much be capped out re-signing their own talent (which also includes Cale Makar as an RFA).  Is Detroit going to take a return centered around Nazem Kadri for Larkin?  Probably not.  As for the Rangers, Larkin is a good center but is he a true number one?  That’s what they need.  If he’s in that tier that’s slightly below a top center, they already have that in Mika Zibanejad, assuming they’re able to extend him.  Sure, he’d be an upgrade on Ryan Strome on a long-term basis but I feel their top trade chips should be saved for someone that can be more impactful offensively or at least be guaranteed to be around longer than two years, the remaining term of Larkin’s contract.

Joe422: Nobody ever knows what Lou is thinking but the Islanders need to free up cap space to sign their RFA and resign Cizikas. What does Lou do? Trade Nick Leddy? What would he get back? A 2nd and a 3rd round pick? Could you also see Jordan Eberle being left unprotected and Kyle Palmieri be re-signed for less annual $ than Eberle?

Let’s look at that cap situation first.  Per PuckPedia, they have about $75.7MM in commitments to 17 players with, as you noted, Casey Cizikas and Kyle Palmieri among the pending UFAs while Anthony Beauvillier and Ilya Sorokin are among the RFAs.  Even with Johnny Boychuk being eligible for LTIR (allowing them to spend up to $6MM past the cap), you’re absolutely correct in that they need to shed salary.

Leo Komarov and Andrew Ladd look like candidates to be full-season members with AHL Bridgeport, clearing up $1.125MM in space for each of them though those amounts are offset by needing to replace them with someone making close to the minimum.  Still, there’s a few hundred thousand in savings.  Cal Clutterbuck feels like another possible cap casualty, either through waivers or even a buyout.  He plays an important role but he’s way too expensive for that role.  Ross Johnston could also be waived and farmed out with someone making the minimum replacing him, saving $250K.

I expect Cizikas will return at a lower price tag than $3.35MM.  He will be sought after by a lot of teams but most teams can’t pay fourth liners that type of money and that includes the Islanders.  If the offers are near the $2MM mark, he’ll probably stay put.

I don’t see Palmieri sticking around for a couple of reasons.  The first is that I don’t think they’ll leave Eberle unprotected and even if they did, does Seattle find his $5.5MM price tag for three more years appealing?  The second is that I wouldn’t be surprised if Palmieri covets a bigger role than what he had with the Islanders as he was more of a middle-six player than a top-six one (and while both of those involve the second line, I think there’s a distinction between the two).

I agree that Leddy feels like a cap casualty but how strong is his market?  They’d have preferred to trade him instead of Devon Toews a year ago so they can’t expect to get a similar return as they got for Toews for Leddy now.  If there’s going to be an expansion casualty, I think it might be him.  I like Leddy and he’s a serviceable second-pairing defender.  However, this is not a good market to be dumping money and he also is at $5.5MM but just for one more year.  If I’m Seattle, Leddy’s contract is more attractive than Eberle’s if it came to that.  While they’d need to replace him, they should be able to re-sign Adam Pelech and a Leddy replacement for that money (plus Pelech’s previous $1.6MM AAV).

Sorokin looks like a candidate for a bridge deal to keep his cost down and if they go short-term with Beauvillier (even a one-year contract), they can keep the cost manageable.  With the other small cap savings, they should be able to stay cap compliant.

mikedickinson: $8 million seems insane for Hamilton. He looked lost when Slavin was out during the Nashville series. As a Canes fan, what could we expect for compensation? Also, if Dougie leaves, any chance we make a run at Jones, if he’d sign for less than Hamilton?

The one downside to doing what they did by letting his camp talk to teams is that it took away any possibility of doing what they did with Joel Edmundson last fall, flipping his rights to Montreal for a fifth-round pick.  Why trade for exclusive rights when you can already talk to him?  If Hamilton doesn’t really want an eighth year on his contract if the money isn’t as high as he wants, the sign-and-trade isn’t as important either; he can get his seven years from anyone.

I can’t see the return for Hamilton in an extend-and-trade deal being too substantial.  The acquiring team will probably send a contract back to help offset the money and Carolina will be compensated for taking that salary offset on in the form of a draft pick or prospect.  I know that sounds underwhelming but unless Hamilton goes to Carolina and gives them a list of a few teams to choose from, it’s going to be tough to get any sort of bidding war going.  That’s what drives the trade price up and without that element, they don’t have a lot of leverage.

Knowing the emphasis that Carolina puts on their back end, I wouldn’t rule out a run at Seth Jones entirely but that’s an in-division trade for Columbus and I doubt that’s their preference.  But yeah, I think they’d kick the tires at least and someone like Brady Skjei, who has three years left at a reasonable rate for a second-pairing player, could be of some interest to the Blue Jackets.  I suspect they want to send him out West if they can, however.

sovietcanuckistanian: Given how Cam Neely just softly admitted they kind of botched the 2015 draft, how much shorter of a leash does Sweeney and his scouts have? I know not every team hits on all of their picks, but, the eye test tells me that teams like the late 90’s/early 2000’s Red Wings sustained their success by hitting on late-round gems. Also, is it just me or do the Bruins have an aversion (at least with early-round picks) to non-American-born/developed players?

A bad performance in the 2015 draft (saying they ‘kind of’ botched it is generous) shouldn’t really dramatically affect Sweeney’s fortunes all of a sudden.  This has been the known outcome for longer than a few weeks now; just look at Kyle Connor, Mathew Barzal, and Thomas Chabot’s performances.  This has been obvious for at least two or three years now so Neely’s public comment wasn’t exactly an indictment; it can’t be if everyone already knew that they didn’t draft well that year.

As for the scouts, being frustrated that they weren’t able to do like Detroit and hit on a bunch of late-round picks isn’t entirely fair either.  That’s not a viable model to expect.  You can strive for it but international scouting has come a long way in the last 20 years; there aren’t as many truly hidden gems as there once were.  No team, even the ones that have had good luck in the back of the draft, is operating under the goal of trying to do what Detroit did then.

Of the 20 picks they’ve made in the last four years, seven have been international picks which is a pretty high percentage so I don’t think there’s much of an aversion there.  However, to me, the biggest point of intrigue is their lack of CHL selections, just three since 2016 (and they all were in the same year, 2017).  Non-CHL picks get four years (or longer) of team control and that feels like a philosophical decision to try to let prospects marinate a little longer and then get them contributing pretty quickly thereafter.  Not many teams share that approach.  It’s also hard to fault the scouts when they’re averaging five picks per year over the last four years with only two of those coming in the top 50.  It’s hard to restock the pipeline with so few impact picks.  That’s the price you pay for justifiably trying to sustain a contender but it makes it hard to hit with fewer darts to throw, so to speak.

Long story short, 2015 alone doesn’t shorten the leash for anyone but the longer they don’t have sustained playoff success and aren’t adding much via the draft, it will start to get shorter but they’re not at that point yet.

wreckage: Lots of talk about how much cap the Oilers have to go into free agency with and how they could use it to help balance out their roster. But with some nice pieces coming up as prospects (Broberg, Bouchard, Samorukov, Berglund, McLeod, Marody, Benson, Lavoie, Savoie, etc.) could they explore trading from there to a cap-strapped club for a more established complement to McDavid or Draisaitl with term already attached instead? And if so, who do you see as possible targets?  Thanks.

As you note, Edmonton has a decent prospect core although some of those players have a lot more trade value than others.  There are only a couple on that list that would bring back the type of impact complementary player that you’re looking for and of those, does Edmonton really want to move Philip Broberg or Evan Bouchard right now?  They’re probably losing Tyson Barrie this summer, no one knows if Oscar Klefbom will be able to return to form, and Darnell Nurse is only a year away from UFA eligibility himself.  Dealing one of those promising young defenders for help on the wing could really come back to bite them later.

I don’t see a ton of financial wiggle room for them to add a long-term top-line piece up front unless they’re letting Ryan Nugent-Hopkins go and then that creates a second hole to try to fill.  They also have to be mindful of Nurse’s next contract which should be considerably higher than the $5.6MM it is now.  That’s not a factor for 2021-22 but thinking long-term, how many long-term, big-money contracts can they have on the books?  And by the time they re-sign or replace their pending free agents and get a starting goalie, they’re not going to have as much money as it may seem either.

But here’s the thing.  I don’t think they need to trade for a complementary player for McDavid and Draisaitl.  I don’t think they should want to, even.  The free agent market wasn’t kind to wingers a year ago and I see no reason for that to change this summer with the cap staying flat at $81.5MM.  You can get one of those players for less money in free agency than the $4MM or so that they’re getting paid on an existing contract and they don’t have to give anything up trade-wise to get a free agent either.  GM Ken Holland should use the market to his advantage; there are bargains to be had and the allure of playing with Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl has to help as well.  Look what they did with Barrie; that can be done again with a forward.

They won’t have a ton of money to spend on that piece, especially if they’re able to make a much-needed longer-term move between the pipes but if the market plays out as it did a year ago, they shouldn’t need a lot of money to find the right fit in free agency in a move that would cost less on the cap than a trade.  Accordingly, I can’t give you a list of possible trade targets – it’s an empty one.

@paolo7503: What moves do you think Fletcher will do to improve Philly’s team? I think at least three moves need to be made. Do you agree? (Moves = trade and FA signing.)

Three impact moves are a lot in an offseason when moving high-priced players will be tricky.  If they lose one of Voracek or van Riemsdyk as I predicted earlier, that gives them some extra flexibility although they’d need to replace them and that wouldn’t even count towards upgrading the team.

Can we call a backup/platoon goalie as one of the moves?  They need to move on from Brian Elliott and with the year Carter Hart had, they’d be wise to shop towards the higher end of the backup goalie market which probably puts them in the $3MM range.  If they sign a replacement for whichever winger they lose, that’s where the rest of the savings from that move goes.

Let’s assume Hart and Travis Sanheim eat up about half of the remaining cap space which would mean they’d cost around $7MM combined.  (That might be on the low side as well.)  By the time they fill out the roster, there isn’t much money left.

Shayne Gostisbehere had a nice finish to his season; is that enough to flip him for a similarly-priced defenseman that’s more of a defensive presence?  I think that’s possible so let’s call that a second move.  Nolan Patrick appears to want a change of scenery but can they find a low-cost replacement in a trade for him?  If so, let’s call that the third move.

I suspect you were hoping for bigger moves than that as those aren’t going to drastically turn their fortunes around.  But with Claude Giroux and Sean Couturier a year away from needing new deals, I doubt GM Chuck Fletcher is looking to make some big splashes knowing those contracts are soon up for renewal.  They’ll do a couple of moves – most teams do – but it may not be an overly busy summer for Philadelphia.

Red Wings: Any news on Laine to Panthers rumors? I don’t like his attitude but if you put him with fellow Finn Barkov that could be amazing.

This feels more like wishful thinking speculation than a real rumor.  Florida wants to entice Aleksander Barkov to re-sign; what better way to make that happen by getting a high-scoring winger who happens to be from the same country?  Sure, it wouldn’t hurt their chances of extending Barkov but what’s in it for Columbus?

Yes, Laine had a bad year with the Blue Jackets.  It’s one that makes a long-term contract difficult but I don’t see any reason for them to give up on him so quickly.  And even if they did, they’d want to do a move similar to the one they made to get him, a star player for a star player.  Who is Florida parting with from that category?  They’re not moving Barkov and they probably aren’t moving Jonathan Huberdeau.  As far as forwards go, that’s the list that Columbus would be interested in for Laine.

Sure, adding Laine could help re-sign Barkov in theory but there’s really no viable trade to be made to get him to Florida.

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