Offseason Checklist: Ottawa Senators

The offseason has arrived with roughly half of the league finished up after missing the playoffs.  It’s time to examine what those teams need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Ottawa.

Expectations were low for the Senators heading into this season.  They were still not quite ready to come out of their rebuild and not many had them as a playoff contender.  That’s how it played out in the first half as they struggled mightily at times but as the year progressed, they became a lot harder to beat as they won 10 games over their final month.  Even so, they’re unlikely to deviate much from their current course of letting their top prospects play their way into bigger roles so the to-do list isn’t overly long for GM Pierre Dorion this summer; the heavy lifting to put the final pieces in place will come a little later.

Add New Bridge Veterans

The acquisition of Derek Stepan right before training camp raised some eyebrows, especially with Ottawa paying a second-round pick to get him.  The logic felt like they’d be able to recover that pick (with retention) at the trade deadline and the team would benefit from having someone like that to work with their young forwards.  It was the same type of idea for Erik Gudbranson, only that the acquisition cost was a lot lower.  It didn’t work out quite as planned with Stepan’s torn labrum that ended his season prematurely while Gudbranson (and Braydon Coburn) fetched next to nothing at the trade deadline.

Stepan, along with Artem Anisimov and Ryan Dzingel, are set to become unrestricted free agents this summer which means their elder statesmen are Evgenii Dadonov who, at 32, has more KHL seasons than NHL seasons under his belt and Nikita Zaitsev.  These are capable veterans but when young teams talk about ‘veteran presence’ to work with the youngsters, these two aren’t the types of players that come to mind.  Both have multiple years left as well (Dadonov two years, Zaitsev three) so they would appear unlikely to be flipped at the deadline if 2021-22 is similar to this season.

With that in mind, Dorion will likely want to add this year’s versions of Stepan and Gudbranson, veterans on expiring contracts that can play a certain limited role, work with Ottawa’s young players, and then be pushed out once some of their players with AHL Belleville are ready to jump up.  The good news for the Sens is that with so many teams looking to shed money this summer, they should be able to add some useful bridge pieces for a low cost and then flip them with retention at the deadline for more than they paid to get them.

Re-Sign Tkachuk

This is the big one for them as Brady Tkachuk is set to become a restricted free agent this summer.  It’s not as if he’s a dominant offensive player – his point-per-game averages per season range from 0.62 on the low end to 0.64 on the high end which is a roughly 50-point pace over an 82-game campaign.  That alone doesn’t make him a core piece.  It’s the physicality that he brings as well.  Tkachuk has become one of the top power forwards in the game quite quickly (he’s only 21) and those are incredibly difficult to come by.  It certainly stands to reason that Dorion will want to start discussions on a max-term deal with the winger soon if he hasn’t already done so.

However, the flat-cap environment doesn’t necessarily make an eight-year contract particularly appealing to Tkachuk.  If he believes that he can take a step forward offensively over the next couple of seasons, a bridge contract looks more desirable.  Look no further than his brother Matthew Tkachuk in Calgary who is playing on a three-year, $21MM pact but remains RFA-eligible at the end of it.  For the first two years, their offensive numbers were similar and while Matthew had a much better platform campaign offensively, that can be offset somewhat by Brady’s physicality and how unique of a player he is.  If that’s the rough ballpark for a short-term deal, that would seem more desirable on the surface than committing to a long-term pact.  It’s still a significant raise but gets him arbitration eligibility at the end of it and potentially a more favorable cap environment as league revenues start to stabilize.

Cap space isn’t an issue for the Senators as they’re well below the $81.5MM Upper Limit for next season so that won’t impact these talks.  Even so, with Ottawa’s likely preference being a max-term contract and it appearing to make more sense for Tkachuk to go with a bridge, it’s going to make for a very interesting negotiation in the weeks and months to come.

Bring In Defensive Upgrades

While there is help on the back end on the horizon (Jacob Bernard-Docker, Jake Sanderson, and Lassi Thomson), none of them are ready to step into Ottawa’s lineup next season.  Bernard-Docker will need some time with Belleville, Sanderson will remain in college, and Thomson’s first AHL season wasn’t particularly strong so more time there will be needed.

That means the defense corps that was in place for most of the season remains intact and while there is one strong piece (Thomas Chabot is definitely a legitimate top-pairing player), it’s a group that’s light on high-end options and even depth.  Erik Brannstrom hasn’t progressed as they hoped when he was the centerpiece of the Mark Stone trade with Vegas and Victor Mete (a pending RFA himself) was a late-season waiver claim.  Both are young enough to still have some upside but as far as in-house improvements go, that’s about all they can count on.

Again, a serviceable veteran or two that could be flipped at the deadline when Bernard-Docker and maybe Thomson are more ready to play would work.  But even with that, a controllable top-four pickup should also be high on Dorion’s wish list.  Not all prospects pan out so one more quality addition to go along with Chabot, Zaitsev, and Artem Zub would at least bolster their core group and allow ample development time for their prospects.  The flat cap could force some quality players to be on the move and Ottawa should be willing to deal some of their future capital to make sure they get a more significant addition and if they wind up with a surplus of quality defenders down the road, that’s quite a nice ‘problem’ to have.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Cap information courtesy of CapFriendly.