Over the next few weeks, we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection, and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4:00 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here, while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.
Back in 2017, the Canadiens lost Alexei Emelin to Vegas. Unless they want to risk losing a notable forward this time around, history could repeat itself with Seattle likely to be interested in one of Montreal’s blueliners.
Eligible Players (Non-UFA)
Forwards:
Josh Anderson, Joseph Blandisi, Paul Byron, Laurent Dauphin, Jonathan Drouin, Jake Evans, Brendan Gallagher (NMC), Charles Hudon, Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Artturi Lehkonen, Michael Pezzetta, Tyler Toffoli, Lukas Vejdemo
Defense:
Ben Chiarot, Joel Edmundson, Cale Fleury, Brett Kulak, Xavier Ouellet, Jeff Petry (NMC), Shea Weber
Goalies:
Jake Allen, Michael McNiven, Carey Price (NMC)
Notable Unrestricted Free Agents
F Joel Armia, F Phillip Danault, F Michael Frolik, D Erik Gustafsson, D Jonathon Merrill, F Corey Perry, F Eric Staal, F Tomas Tatar
Notable Exemptions
F Cole Caufield, F Ryan Poehling, G Cayden Primeau, D Alexander Romanov, F Nick Suzuki, F Jesse Ylonen
Key Decisions
The goaltending one is pretty easy. Price will be protected and Allen, beginning a cheaper two-year deal next season, will be exposed. He will certainly be under consideration by the Kraken.
On the back end, Petry’s no-move clause means he’ll be protected and while Weber’s contract could be viewed as enough of a deterrent to leave him exposed, his performance in the playoffs so far makes that unlikely. It would be difficult for Montreal to leave their captain available.
If they go with the standard 7/3/1 scheme, that only leaves one spot left and a trio of interesting options to choose from. A few years ago, Chiarot was a role player with Winnipeg and at the time he signed his three-year, $10.5MM deal with the Canadiens, it seemed like quite the overpayment. Then he played his way onto the top pairing, a spot he maintained for a lot of this year. He’s the only full-time skater to not record a point so far in the playoffs but he’s also averaging 25:37 per game, just one second behind Weber for the team lead. Even though that’s not necessarily the ideal role for him, Chiarot would probably be one of Seattle’s better rearguards and with him being on an affordable expiring contract, he’s someone that could yield a notable return if they looked to flip him.
Then there’s Edmundson. While his four-year, $14MM contract also looked like a small overpayment (especially considering the way the UFA market went), he played quite well with Petry this season and certainly solidified their top-four. That has continued in the playoffs where he’s up over 23 minutes per game. All of a sudden, his $3.5MM price tag for three more years could be viewed as appealing.
Kulak also warrants a mention. His possession stats have generally been well above average but that hasn’t resulted in a lot of playing time, including in their playoff run. But Seattle appears to be a team that is highly invested in analytics and viewed through those stats, he could be more attractive than Chiarot or Edmundson while basically being half the price.
Up front, there are four safe bets to be protected in Gallagher, Anderson, Toffoli, and Kotkaniemi. Things get a little trickier from there, however.
The key to Montreal’s expansion strategy is Drouin. Heading into the season, the thought of leaving him unprotected would have seemed unrealistic. However, he struggled to score this season, scoring just twice in 44 games, hardly an ideal output from a $5.5MM contract. He missed the end of the regular season plus all of the playoffs on a personal leave of absence, one that has yielded more questions than answers. When will he come back? Will he come back at all? If he does, will it be with Montreal or will there be a trade request? With the uncertainty surrounding his situation, his contract (which has two years left), and his struggles this season, Drouin’s trade value is arguably at an all-time low. Would Seattle take a swing on the potential upside or would the questions scare them off, making it more beneficial to leave him unprotected? GM Marc Bergevin will have a few more weeks to try to figure out the answers to those questions.
Evans is another potential wild card. His NHL experience is relatively limited (just 60 career regular season games) but the 25-year-old did well in limited playoff action and is nearing a return. He’s also signed for another year at the league minimum. Center depth among unprotected players around the league may not be the greatest so a cheap youngster could interest Seattle GM Ron Francis. Montreal might want to protect him but they’re a team that has a lot of unsigned players right now; to meet the requirement of two signed skaters with enough games played, he might have to be made available, especially if they don’t want to take the chance of losing Drouin.
Lehkonen is someone whose regular season potentially had him in that iffy zone of being qualified at $2.2MM with arbitration rights. He’s undoubtedly a strong defensive forward but aside from his rookie season, he hasn’t been much of a goal scorer (although he did get the series-winner against Vegas) and the open market wasn’t kind to those players in the fall. He has helped his value to the point where he’s probably protected in a 7/3/1 scheme but he could also be a capable checker for the Kraken if they protect the four defensemen.
Projected Protection List
F Josh Anderson
F Brendan Gallagher (NMC)
F Jesperi Kotkaniemi
F Tyler Toffoli
D Ben Chiarot
D Joel Edmundson
D Jeff Petry (NMC)
D Shea Weber
G Carey Price (NMC)
Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist
When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined. Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019/20 and 2020-21 combined. In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.
Forwards (3): Paul Byron, Jonathan Drouin, Jake Evans
Defensemen (1): Brett Kulak
There are a few different ways that Francis could go here. Adding Allen is certainly a safe decision; he isn’t a true number one but can still play 40-45 games and at $2.875MM, he’s on an affordable contract and would be part of the plans beyond 2021-22. Drouin has the most upside but the highest risk of any of the skaters unprotected. Lehkonen (who isn’t listed above since he’s a restricted free agent and the above group is only for signed players) would be a viable middle-six forward while Evans and Kulak are more under the radar options but could be picked as well.
For Montreal to switch to a 7/3/1 scheme, they need to get another forward signed. Giving Perry a new deal and then exposing him with Byron (while protecting Drouin, Lehkonen, and Evans) would meet the exposure requirements but would also run the risk of losing Chiarot or Edmundson. With the way they’ve played in the playoffs, whichever is left available could very well become the favorite to be selected. While their mindset is justifiably on the Stanley Cup Final against Tampa Bay, there will need to be some decisions made soon on the expansion front.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.
Edmundson has been great for the habs this year, +28 and very solid overall game. He is not an overpayment at all. He’s been even better in the playoffs
At some point, you need some upside plays…I might grab Drouin and hope if I were Francis.
If his coaching choice is any hint to his philosophy, he’ll grab Lehkonen, though.
If Drouin was anyone a coach could count on, I’d agree with you. But we’ve seen ample evidence over the years that you can’t. He wore out his welcome in Tampa, and he’s wearing out his welcome in Montreal. (Quick question: ask your average hockey commentator back in December what he’d think the odds are of the Habs making the Cup Finals with Drouin tanking. Then plug your ears to muffle the hysterical laughter.)
No one sane wants this kind of head case short of him giving you All-Star production. Which he doesn’t: Drouin’s peak is marginal first-line, good second-line scoring.
Don’t mistake this as an endorsement of Drouin, I’ve never been a fan.
BUT…if JVR and Oshie get protected, a lot of the winger depth dries up. Drouin and Zucker (fingers crossed) could be the best wingers SEA has to pick from, in terms of upside.
People are overthinking this whole thing. That’s what got teams like Florida in trouble. Just pick your best players and accept potentially losing one. The teams that tried to manipulate the system are the teams that lost the most. They outsmarted themselves.
But now everyone’s freaking out because of how good Vegas was out of the gate. But they weren’t good because they selected a bunch of teams’ best players. They were so successful because of Florida, Pittsburgh giving up on MAF, and shrewd choices by McPhee. No one was concerned about them acquiring players like Karlsson, Tuch, Theodore, or Mcnabb. But they came together under Gallant. As long as teams don’t try to get cute again, the Kraken will be a standard expansion team – bad.
What about Jake Allen good back up !!!!!!?
Montreal like most teams just needs to protect what they think are their best players.You are going to lose a 4 or 5 defensemen or 5 or 8 forward on most teams these guys are replaceable . Most cases they are overpaid for their value. The one thing montreal learned this year. Have a backup to price that can play. Worth paying more like they did for allen which most thought was a bad idea at time.
I wouldn’t protect Chiarot for sure, especially if it costs an extra spot. Potentially the dumbest player in the league.