PHR Mailbag: Cup Prediction, Georgiev, Messier, Eichel, Prospects, Mock Draft

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include a prediction of the Stanley Cup winner, Alexandar Georgiev’s future with the Rangers, a thought on Mark Messier in New York, Jack Eichel trade talk, power forward prospects, and an early mock draft.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check for it in last weekend’s mailbag.

lapcheung39: Do you see Tampa Bay will repeat as champion this year; if not, who do you see as a dark horse to win it all?

First, that was quite an entertaining series they had against Florida.  The fact that the Lightning played well against a team that really mixed it up physically bodes well for them, a team that is tacitly viewed as more of a finesse group.  However, even though I see them squeaking by Carolina in the second round, I don’t think they’re the favorite to win the Stanley Cup.

I suspect I’m hardly the only one in this camp but whoever wins the Colorado-Vegas series is my pick to win it all.  Those two teams are in win-now mode with rosters that don’t have many flaws and they know that their best chance is now with the flat cap and pending free agents.  (I know Tampa Bay is in a similar boat as well.)  I have the Avalanche getting through the Golden Knights so they’d be my pick.  I know that’s hardly a dark horse but I don’t think there is one.

CoachWall: Any chance the Rangers include Georgiev in a trade for a center and bring “The King” back to mentor/back up Igor? It would give Henry a way to get a proper send-off before #30 takes its rightful place in the rafters.

Let’s address a quick CBA note here in that there is nothing preventing New York from doing this if they wanted to.  Players that are bought out can sign back with the team that bought them out (Calgary’s Michael Stone being the most recent example).

But even though they can, I don’t think they want to do that, nor should they.  If the inclusion of Georgiev helps land an impact center, that’d be great.  I don’t think he carries enough value to be a key piece of such a trade but in a bigger deal, I could see him being included.

But that doesn’t mean Lundqvist should be the target.  He hasn’t played this season after undergoing open-heart surgery which means he will have gone about 14 months between game action between the bubble and the start of next year.  It’s also important to remember that his numbers in his final season with New York weren’t particularly great and were below average for a backup.

I agree that Igor Shesterkin could benefit from a veteran backup who can help mentor him but the Rangers need someone that’s a little more reliable and doesn’t come with as many question marks in terms of health.  For as talented as Shesterkin is, he has all of 48 career NHL games under his belt and we appear to be heading for an 82-game season in 2021-22.  If I’m GM Chris Drury, I’m looking for someone that I’m comfortable handing 35-40 starts to next season.  It’d make for a fantastic story but I don’t think that Lundqvist can handle that workload at the age of 39, at least to the point of giving them above-average backup goaltending.

The good news is that a lot of the other veteran free agent goalies out there should be able to handle that type of action so if they do move Georgiev this summer, there will be several viable options to turn to.

@flaguy12: Any chance if the Rangers interviewing Mark Messier for their head coaching job?

Is there a chance they’re interviewing Messier?  Sure.  I’d even go as far as saying they’re likely to talk to him considering his comments earlier this month when he said he was “standing by ready to help out” following the firings of Jeff Gorton and John Davidson.  But as a head coach?  I’d be shocked.

Messier dabbled in coaching a decade ago, heading up Canada’s entries into the Deutschland and Spengler Cups.  He also has a couple of stints as an assistant coach with peewee teams.  That’s the extent of his coaching background.  That’s not enough to make him a credible candidate to be an NHL coach, let alone a head coach.

If they do speak with Messier, I wouldn’t be surprised if a role similar to the Senior Advisor post he held a decade ago with the team.  If he had any intention of being in a full-time NHL role somewhere, his name would have popped up for opportunities somewhere over the past several years.  Accordingly, a part-time role makes more sense for him which would be as an advisor or some sort of player development coach.

sabres3277: Do you believe that the Sabres will trade Eichel? If so, what team would be the best landing spot to bring the Sabres the best return? And what kind of return are the Sabres looking at?

It has been a tough stretch in Buffalo for the past several years and to be honest, I don’t see a lot of hope on the horizon for them.  That’s not at all a shot at Jack Eichel either but the supporting cast isn’t good enough and the rotating door of coaches and general managers doesn’t help either.  He’s one more season away from having the ability to veto a move when his no-move clause kicks in.  I don’t get the sense he’s going to be happier with the Sabres a year from now, especially with the current issue of wanting surgery that the team won’t sign off on.  Even with that lingering procedure, it certainly feels as if they have a better shot at getting more for him this summer than next offseason when he can limit the market.  Accordingly, I do believe that Eichel will be on the move.

I don’t know how willing the Kings are to commit to three players making at least $10MM on their payroll when they’re a non-playoff team but on paper, they match up well.  Buffalo needs a top young center in a trade.  Los Angeles has Quinton Byfield, Alex Turcotte, and Gabriel Vilardi as recent first-round picks.  They don’t have extra first-round picks but have extra picks in the next two rounds this summer which makes it a bit easier to part with their top selection.  They also have ample cap space which means they don’t have to match money.  That’s a strong foundation of a deal right there.

The Rangers have been long speculated as a landing spot but their package would have to be based on young defensemen more than a center as part of the reason New York would be in the hunt here is that youngsters like Filip Chytil and Brett Howden haven’t established themselves as top-six fits.  I don’t know if the fit is as good and it’s a deal where money would need to be matched beyond the inclusion of Ryan Strome.  I’ll toss in a dark horse team as well, the Blue Jackets.  If Buffalo really likes one of Joonas Korpisalo or Elvis Merzlikins and that goalie is willing to sign, that could give them their starter for the foreseeable future, a core piece.  They have three first-round picks at their disposal and could add someone like Max Domi to give him another fresh start although they don’t need to match money either.  There are some pieces to work with for an offer there.

I can see this being a four or five-piece package.  A young core player that’s either signed long-term or under team control for four or five years (Eichel has five years left on his deal).  There needs to be a top prospect in there and probably a first-round pick or comparable prospect.  The rest will be taking a player or two back for cap purposes.  That’s a higher price than Ryan O’Reilly but Eichel is in a higher tier.  O’Reilly is quite good but Eichel is a franchise player.  They need to demand a huge return and even in a flat-cap market, they should be able to get it.

Pieters: Which prospects would have the best chance of being the next Brady Tkachuk (i.e., scoring forward that’s not afraid to mix it up)?

That’s a very rare combination to try to match which is part of the reason Tkachuk went as high as he did (fourth overall in 2016).  There frankly hasn’t been one like him since then which makes this rather challenging to answer.

I think players like Matt Boldy (MIN) and Samuel Poulin (PIT) could fit the bill offensively.  Boldy hasn’t had a chance to throw his weight around much in college but I think as he fills out, he’ll have a bigger willingness to get engaged physically.  I’m not sure that means he’ll drop the gloves a ton but there should be a physicality element in time and he should score enough to be in the top six.  Poulin has shown the offensive skill in junior that could translate to the pros but he already is a particularly physical player and undoubtedly will be highly valued by Pittsburgh’s new management team.  If he puts it all together, he could fit that bill.

One other wildcard that comes to mind is Jake Neighbours (STL).  I’m not convinced that his offensive ceiling is as high as Tkachuk’s but he could be a 15-20-goal player that drops the gloves from time to time while being able to mix it up in the corners.

If you’re looking at this and thinking that none of these players are like Tkachuk, you’re right.  They’re not.  But part of what makes Tkachuk or any other power forward of that ilk (think Milan Lucic and Wayne Simmonds in their primes) is that the combination of physicality and offensive skill is so hard to get; they don’t come around often.  There are players with similar offensive games but don’t throw their weight around as much.  There are more players willing to engage in the corners and play rough but lack the offensive upside to play in the top six.  Rarely do you see both in the same player.

Tkachuk may not have the overall offensive upside as some of the others that went behind him in that draft but with everything else he brings to the table, the Sens believed he’d be more valuable.  That belief has been rewarded so far.

SpeakOfTheDevil: Ok Scenario Time, Little Bit Of A Top 10 Mock Draft

Assuming Nobody Moves Up Or Down In The Lottery And The Picks Remain As They Are Right Now Based Off Of Record And Nobody Trades Their Picks.

Who Is The Absolute Best Player That The Teams At Those Picks Can Make?

1. Buffalo 2. Anaheim 3. Seattle 4. New Jersey 5. Columbus 6. Detroit 7. San Jose 8. Los Angeles 9. Vancouver 10. Ottawa

I haven’t done a lot of draft prep yet with it being a month later than usual so I’ll add the caveat that some of these could change between now and the draft, regardless of what happens in the draft lottery.  With that said, here’s how it looks now:

Buffalo: Owen Power, D – If he puts it all together, he’s a number one defenseman with size and skill.  Those are really hard to come by and while he plays the same side as Rasmus Dahlin, I think that works better for the Sabres rather than having them potentially on the same pairing down the road.

Anaheim: Matthew Beniers, C – What does Anaheim need more than anything?  Scoring.  They also could stand to add down the middle to partner up with Trevor Zegras, especially with Isac Lundestrom looking more like a role player than a top-six piece.

Seattle: Luke Hughes, D – Like his brother Quinn, he is capable of lighting up the scoresheet.  Unlike his brothers (Jack being the other), he has the size that many teams covet as well.  If they wind up with a surplus of defense in the expansion draft, having Hughes have a season in college would be a good idea.

New Jersey: Brandt Clarke, D – I think Clarke has enough of an offensive game to hold his own on a top pairing and the potential to have a good enough defensive game to keep him there.  He’s not as highly rated by some others but I think the ceiling is higher than other defenders on the board.  (No, the fact his brother is in their system didn’t influence this either.)

Columbus: Dylan Guenther, RW – While I don’t advocate drafting for need in most circumstances, if they get an indication that one of their top defenders are leaving, I’d switch this to a defenseman.  Since we don’t know that for certain, I’ll go with Guenther who gives them some offensive upside in a pipeline that doesn’t have a lot of it.

Detroit: Simon Edvinsson, D – Whoever takes Edvinsson is going to be projecting a lot from his offensive upside.  He should be a high-end shutdown defender at a minimum, giving him a nice floor.

San Jose: William Eklund, LW – He produced at the U-18 level, at the U-20 level, and had an impressive rookie season in the SHL this year.  He’s undersized but if he can put up the points, the Sharks won’t mind.

Los Angeles: Kent Johnson, C – I know, the last thing they need is a center but I’m not a fan of drafting for need.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Kings move one of their young pivots before long and Johnson should be a couple of years away from turning pro.  There’s room for him in the long run.

Vancouver: Chaz Lucius, C – He’s more of a scorer than a passer which is a bit odd for a center but there is definitely top-six upside regardless.  The Canucks have some good set-up guys already but could use more scoring pop and Lucius could provide that.

Ottawa: Jesper Wallstedt, G – The Sens have taken several goalies in recent years but they don’t have a true number one in their system.  That’s the one thing they’re lacking in the pipeline and Wallstedt, one of the more highly-touted goalies lately, would fill that.  He’s a few years away but they still have Matt Murray signed for three more seasons so they can afford to be patient.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.