Offseason Checklist: Detroit Red Wings

The offseason has arrived with roughly half of the league finished up after missing the playoffs.  It’s time to examine what those teams need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Detroit.

The rebuild continues for the Red Wings which shouldn’t come as much of a surprise with how their roster was structured coming into the season.  They’re playing the long game and have amassed a quality group of prospects that will be added to this summer with a dozen draft picks including five in the first two rounds.  GM Steve Yzerman has already checked off one major item from his checklist with the decision to retain head coach Jeff Blashill (though they will need to replace Dan Bylsma behind the bench) but he still has a lot of work to do.

Rebuild The Back End

There’s no denying that Detroit has plenty of cap and roster flexibility, especially on the back end where a grand total of two regulars are under contract for next season in Danny DeKeyser and Troy Stecher.  Of those, it’s worth noting that DeKeyser cleared waivers and would almost certainly do so again next year.  There’s a lot of work to be done here.

Filip Hronek is the top restricted free agent out of the group and very quietly led the Red Wings in scoring this season with 26 points while logging over 23 minutes a game for the second straight year.  He isn’t eligible for salary arbitration as he’s coming off his entry-level deal but that won’t stop him from landing a significant raise.  Even with a bridge deal, he should be able to at least quadruple his $714K price tag while a contract that buys out UFA years would be substantially higher and should put him ahead of DeKeyser’s AAV.  Dennis Cholowski and Gustav Lindstrom have a bit of upside but project as role players at this point.  So too are veterans Marc Staal and Alex Biega, both set to become unrestricted free agents; Hronek is the only core piece of the bunch and it’s a core that isn’t very deep.

There is definitely room for multiple additions in their top four defensively and that’s not even considering top prospect Moritz Seider who is ready to make the jump to the NHL.  Detroit has been cautious in their player development so it’s unlikely he’ll get heavy minutes right away.  It’s unlikely that they will be a prime free agent destination so Yzerman may need to do what he did a year ago with Staal and leverage their cap room – they have less than $33MM on the books for next season – to add some pieces.  A willingness to add someone with term on their deal this time around might be a better way to go than another rental.

Detroit isn’t ready to become a contender next season so this isn’t something that has to all be done this summer but bringing in another building block or two to shore things up would be a welcome step in the right direction.

Re-Sign Key RFA Wingers

There is a long list of forwards that are in need of new deals but there are two that certainly stand out among the group in wingers Tyler Bertuzzi and Jakub Vrana.  Both players are eligible for salary arbitration so if they want to avoid a hearing, they’ll be trying to work out new deals by August (assuming the players file by the deadline).

Bertuzzi’s case is going to be an intriguing one.  Coming into the season, he was coming off a career year offensively despite the pandemic-shortened 2019-20 campaign and had two straight seasons of 21 goals and at least 47 points.  The expectation coming into the year was that he’d be able to take another step forward this season.  He looked to be on his way to doing so with five goals and seven points in nine January games but those wound up being his only games.  While he initially wasn’t expected to miss the rest of the year, that eventually became the case and he underwent back surgery at the end of April.  Bertuzzi, now 26, is a year away from UFA eligibility and while his platform year ended in disappointment, he’ll still carry some leverage knowing that he can force another one-year deal and hit the open market a year from now.  He’ll be owed a qualifying offer of $3.5MM but expect Detroit to go considerably higher and try to buy out some UFA eligibility.

As for Vrana, he was the key piece coming back in the deadline deal that saw Anthony Mantha head to Washington.  While the 25-year-old underwhelmed with the Capitals, that changed following the move.  His playing time jumped by nearly three minutes a night while he produced at a point per game pace, collecting eight goals and three assists in 11 games.  That’s certainly a small sample size and no one should be expecting that to continue but it pushed his numbers to a level comparable to his career year in 2019-20 once you extrapolate for the shortened season.  His qualifying offer is actually a bit lower than his AAV based on the structure of the deal but Vrana will certainly earn more than the $3MM they’re required to offer.  He’s two years away from unrestricted free agency so the two sides could agree to a one-year pact that allows for more evaluation while keeping him RFA-eligible after that.  Alternatively, if Yzerman feels that Vrana is a top-six fixture for the foreseeable future, a long-term contract now would make sense.

Add A Starting Goalie

Goaltending has been an issue for the Red Wings for several years now.  Jimmy Howard had a good run as a starter but by the end of his playing days, he wasn’t a legitimate starter.  Jonathan Bernier has done relatively well considering the weaker team in front of him but he isn’t a number one either.  Neither is Thomas Greiss who they signed in free agency last offseason.  That allowed them to basically run a platoon of decent veterans which was fine for a season when they weren’t opting to contend but it hasn’t exactly set up them for their post-rebuild either.

Last year, it was Howard’s free agency that created an opening between the crease and this time, it’s Bernier in that situation.  He seemed like a probable candidate to move at the trade deadline but there wasn’t much of a market and he wound up staying put.  Now, Yzerman has to decide whether or not he wants to keep Bernier and run with the platoon again or look to try to bring in more of a long-term piece.  If the expectation is that they won’t be a playoff contender next year, keeping the status quo would make some sense in principle while allowing them the ability to potentially trade a rental a year from now (Greiss will be in the final year of his contract in 21-22).

However, a starting goalie isn’t something a team should be searching for on an annual basis.  At some point, a more permanent solution needs to be brought in and it’s probably not coming from their prospect pool.  It’s not a great year for proven starters in free agency but there are upgrades available there while the looking Seattle expansion could result in some more activity on the trade market than usual.  Yzerman will need to determine if this is the time to make a goalie splash or punt on the decision for another year.

Add Top-Six Forwards

The list of teams that scored fewer goals than Detroit this season begins with Anaheim and also ends with Anaheim.  With Bertuzzi, Vrana, and Dylan Larkin, they have three capable top-six forwards but the depth starts to slide after that.  Filip Zadina has some upside still and Robby Fabbri was quietly productive in limited action but they’re not ready to be top-six players on a contender just yet.

To help get them to playoff contender status, they need to bring in multiple players that can play in the top six, preferably a winger and a center.  The good news is that there are quality UFA wingers available that may require an overpayment in terms of money to bring in but they have ample cap space and can afford to overpay to maintain their prospect and draft pick capital.  The bad news is that the same can’t be said for centers.  Filling that void will require some creativity.

Last offseason, Detroit used their cap space to take on Staal and add a second-round pick for their troubles.  A similar approach could be taken here to both improve their roster as well as keep adding to their stockpile for the future.  Yzerman has built up the forward depth since taking over in Detroit and now it’s getting closer to being time to make a bigger splash.  This summer, one that should have a lot of player movement, looks like a good place to start improving on that front.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Cap information courtesy of CapFriendly.