PHR Mailbag: Islanders, Devils Trade Options, Avalanche Goalies, Laviolette, Penguins, Flyers, Jets Defense

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include what the Islanders may try to do at the trade deadline, possible returns for New Jersey’s trade options, Colorado’s goaltending situation, Peter Laviolette, Pittsburgh’s deadline goals, what the Flyers should do by the deadline, and Winnipeg’s weakened back end.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s mailbag.

Y2KAK: Who do you think the Islanders pursue at the trade deadline?

redsfanken: What are the Islanders plans? Is really like to see some type of sniper like Patrik Laine, any chance?

Kyle Palmieri seems to be close to the perfect fit aside from the fact he plays the right wing and the player he’d effectively be replacing (Anders Lee) plays the left side.  I don’t think that would be enough to scuttle a deal either.  He’s a rental player with a proven track record of success that would immediately give their top six a boost.  They wouldn’t necessarily need New Jersey to retain half of the cap hit and salary which gives them a small edge that most of his other potential suitors don’t have.

Failing that, the focus will be on other rentals.  Taylor Hall would have to be considered with the usual retention caveat applying.  If Columbus opts to sell, Nick Foligno is the type of player that would fit New York’s playing style and given GM Lou Lamoriello’s affinity for Travis Zajac, I’m sure there will be a cursory inquiry if their options on the wing all fall through.

A sniper like Laine would help every team but acquiring him would really complicate things for the Islanders on the salary cap front next season.  A restricted free agent, Laine is owed a $7.5MM qualifying offer and he will likely be seeking more than that with salary arbitration eligibility.  The Isles have nearly $75MM in commitments already for next season per CapFriendly to just 15 players.  Even backing out Johnny Boychuk’s $6MM as he’ll be LTIR-eligible once again, they don’t have enough cap room to take on Laine’s expected contract, fill out the rest of their roster, and stay cap-compliant.  The focus needs to be on rental players as a result with Lee expected to be ready to return next season.

SpeakOfTheDevil: Realistically what could the returns be for the Devils players rumored to be on the block?

Palmieri, Kulikov, Murray, Subban, Gusev

Kyle Palmieri – Based on his history of being a consistent scorer, GM Tom Fitzgerald would probably like to see a first-round pick for Palmieri’s services.  I’m not overly confident he’ll get it though.  With just eight goals this season in 34 games, he’s not exactly playing at the top of his game which is going to hurt.  A second-round pick seems low but that coupled with a decent prospect should be doable.  If they have to retain money, the quality of the prospect should increase.

Dmitry Kulikov – I took a closer look at him last weekend so I won’t rehash that here.  He’s worth a mid-round pick or comparable prospect.

Ryan Murray – He’s someone that probably isn’t cracking the top four of a playoff-bound team and at $4.6MM, he’s expensive for a third-pairing player.  He’s worth a mid-round pick as long as New Jersey retains half of the money and probably takes some sort of salary offset back.

P.K. Subban – He’s having a better year than last season but that’s not saying much.  His price tag is way too expensive for teams to fit in and it’s hard to imagine the Devils being willing to retain half which they’d need to if they wanted to make a deal.  I don’t see a feasible trade for him by the deadline.

Nikita Gusev – Gusev cleared waivers yesterday so the ‘give him away for free’ option is off the table.  It has been a dreadful year for him and I doubt there is much if any interest in him around the league.  If there’s a swap of bad contracts in a change of scenery type of trade, perhaps he moves but he probably stays and a buyout in the summer shouldn’t be ruled out.

kales1206: Do you think the Avalanche will be making some moves to improve their goaltending depth because I know Johansson isn’t the answer?

They certainly would benefit from such a move.  While I understand the idea behind targeting Jonas Johansson, playing in front of a better team has not made him a better goalie.  Is he an upgrade on what Hunter Miska was providing?  A bit but he also isn’t going to be reliable enough to be the full-fledged backup if Pavel Francouz doesn’t return which is something that seems like a real possibility at this point.  There was a reason that Buffalo parted with him for so little as they had clearly given up on him.  It was worth a shot they would be wise to take a better one…if they can afford it.

A lot is going to depend on Francouz’s outlook over the next ten days.  If they think he’s done for the season, they’ll be able to spend his money on a replacement – perhaps Jonathan Bernier with Detroit retaining some money?  To me, that makes the most sense.  But if they believe that Francouz will be back, that complicates things as they’d need to get back into cap compliance to activate Francouz.  That’s doable if Erik Johnson doesn’t come back and stays on LTIR for the rest of the season but he has been week to week for many weeks now; there’s a lot of uncertainty with him as well.

Adding a veteran upgrade to help Philipp Grubauer should be high on GM Joe Sakic’s wish list as long as Francouz can’t return for the rest of the year.  If that determination is made, then yes, I do believe they’ll add a goalie.  But if they can’t reach that conclusion on him or Johnson, it becomes a lot more complicated to try to make a move, a hurdle that could be too tricky to overcome cap-wise.

MoneyBallJustWorks: Any chance Francis tries to pry Laviolette from Washington? Could make an expansion draft like deal but for a coach.

I know there’s a brief connection between Seattle GM Ron Francis and Washington head coach Peter Laviolette from their days in Carolina when Francis was still playing but is Laviolette so much better than any other current head coaching candidate that isn’t currently with a team to justify ‘trading’ for him?  I don’t think that’s the case, especially with Gerard Gallant, who helped lead the last expansion team to a better-than-expected start, still out there.

There’s also the matter of being unable to trade coaches like Quebec did with Michel Bergeron back in 1987 when they traded him to the Rangers for a first-round pick or Toronto including the negotiating rights to Marc Crawford as part of the Mats Sundin trade seven years later, also involving Quebec.  That makes it really difficult to try to do things on the up and up, so to speak.

For something like this to happen, the Capitals would have to fire Laviolette, then Laviolette would have to go on an interview tour to show that this wasn’t a pre-arranged deal before being hired for the same or higher rate than he’s getting now, and lastly, Seattle would have to make a trade that is in Washington’s favor but not by enough to raise the eyebrows of the league who could probably piece it together anyway.  It’s a creative idea but I don’t think it’s doable and with how the Caps are doing this year, I don’t see Washington wanting to let Laviolette go anyway even with some sort of compensation.

gozurman1: What would you do, if anything, if you were the Penguins? It appears Jarry is coming back within the next game or two. Same with Blueger. If Malkin and Kapanen are both good to go, would you mess with altering the team that seems to have been playing well since February when the defensemen all got healthy?

I’d definitely be trying to add if I was GM Ron Hextall.  They don’t need to make several trades and ship players out to shake things up but if they can afford to add a veteran piece or two to improve the depth on the roster, they should be doing so.  These types of players shouldn’t be drastically altering team chemistry by any stretch.

As for what they should be trying to add, I’d be looking down the middle.  Evgeni Malkin is nearing a return but between him and Jared McCann both missing considerable time, an insurance policy would definitely be ideal.  Someone that could fill the role that Matt Cullen did in the past where he could kill penalties and be decent enough offensively to be able to slide onto the third line if someone gets hurt.  Team president Brian Burke has indicated that they’re looking for more grit so that’s an element they’ll probably want to target as well.

Of course, cap space is at a premium, especially with Malkin set to come off LTIR somewhat soon.  Per CapFriendly, they can only add about $1.1MM on deadline day so it’s going to take a bit of creativity to add to the roster.  Pittsburgh can afford a depth upgrade and that’s about it; a move like that shouldn’t create any concerns of disrupting team chemistry.

DarkSide830: Best plan of attack for Philly at the deadline?

Black Ace57: What should we make of the Flyers? It feels like a regression from last year and the young guys expected to step up haven’t yet. Then the flat cap for the next few years seems to make things even more complicated.

Philadelphia enters play today only three points out of the last playoff spot in the East Division, hardly an insurmountable deficit. But if I were GM Chuck Fletcher, I’m selling.  I have confidence that Carter Hart will eventually turn things around but I’m not confident that it will magically happen in the next few days.  If he doesn’t snap out of it, that deficit in the standings could get bigger in a hurry.  I also expect Boston – who will be covered in next week’s mailbag – to add which could also make the standings gap larger.

If Scott Laughton can’t be extended at a reasonable rate over the next week or so, he becomes one of the more intriguing options out there.  He’s not overly expensive at $2.3MM (and Philly could retain if needed) and the fact he can play center and the wing, kill penalties, and play with some grit checks many of the boxes that playoff-bound teams are looking to fill.  Erik Gustafsson isn’t worth $3MM but with some salary retention, he may be worth something.  Michael Raffl (again, with retention) may fetch a late-round pick.  Most of the core remains intact and the team picks up a few assets for next season.

The Flyers have consistently been one of the more erratic teams in recent years going back to Dave Hakstol’s tenure with them.  At this point, it’s basically a by-product of their core.  When they’re on, they can play with the best of the league and when they’re off, they go into extended slumps.  Right now, they’re in the latter with Hart really struggling as well.  I wouldn’t read a whole lot into it as a result, especially in a weird year like this one.  If Hart even plays okay over the last few weeks, they’re probably still in a playoff spot as bad as things have been.

As far as the flat cap goes, I think Philadelphia is in decent shape.  Hart is really the only major contract on the immediate horizon with Travis Sanheim (another RFA) likely looking at a smaller raise than expected with the season he’s having.  Claude Giroux is a UFA in 2022 and probably is looking at a dip in pay if they want to keep him.  They won’t have a ton of flexibility to add but the Flyers aren’t in a spot where they’re going to start losing key pieces either which is something several teams will be facing.

Yes, they’ve taken a step back this season and some of the expected development hasn’t happened but this is still a decent team and should be for the foreseeable future.  The last few weeks have been ugly but I think the core of this group is still good enough to be in the playoff mix a year from now so making too many changes may not be the best way to go.

W H Twittle: The Jets were looking for a defenseman when Beaulieu ended up on the LTIR list compounding their problem. Ekholm and other Preds are most likely no longer options. Who should the Jets try to get? What can they offer without mortgaging the future?

Someone like Anaheim’s Josh Manson would be an ideal target from Winnipeg’s perspective.  He has another year left on his deal at a manageable $4.1MM and considering their need for defensive help is not a short-term thing, they don’t need to look for just rental players.  Of course, the asking price for Manson – if the Ducks are willing to part with him – is going to be similar to that of Ekholm, a first-round pick plus two other quality picks or prospects.  That would go against your goal of not mortgaging the future.

Realistically, with their cap constraints, they’re probably looking at just rental players.  David Savard would be at the top of the list but the asking price from the Blue Jackets is fairly high.  If you’re more interested in the players that would cost mid-round picks or equivalent prospects, Dmitry Kulikov comes to mind.  He knows the system and is familiar with the market which would help him fit in seamlessly.  He’s also someone that they can add without really limiting any other moves planned as he doesn’t make much more than Nathan Beaulieu.

I also like Alex Goligoski as someone that can step in and play top-four minutes which is something that they need.  Making the money work would be a challenge though as even if the Coyotes retained half of his $5.475MM cap hit, they don’t have enough room at the moment to bring that in.  Moving someone like Sami Niku in the move would help offset that a bit.  If Dallas opts to sell, someone like Jamie Oleksiak would make sense as well.  He’s basically what they hope Logan Stanley will become but unlike Stanley, he’s capable of playing 18 minutes a night.  There are definitely viable targets and GM Kevin Cheveldayoff will need to add one (or more) over the coming days.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.