PHR Mailbag: COVID, Hurricanes, DeAngelo, Senators, Blackhawks, Benning

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the COVID-19 situation around the league, Carolina’s goaltending situation, what’s next for Anthony DeAngelo, Ottawa’s early defensive struggles, surprises in Chicago, and Jim Benning’s future in Vancouver.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s mailbag.

MoneyBallJustWorks: When does the NHL start to get concerned about the # of COVID cases and rescheduling of games?

aloop: Is the league okay with (should it happen) having teams who have played less than 56 games in the playoffs?  Or if the Olympics get nixed again (as was the rumor a few weeks ago) are they okay with extending the season, so long as they can get the 2021-2022 season started on time?

I think they’re already starting to get concerned.  It’s one thing to have a team or two being in a situation where games are being missed but we’re currently at four (Buffalo, Colorado, Minnesota, and New Jersey) and Vegas only ended their pause just yesterday.  It’s not good from a health and safety standpoint both in terms of having more players getting the virus but also in terms of having those teams trying to complete their schedule in a shortened timeframe.  Even with reduced travel, that’s not ideal.  While they undoubtedly knew this was a possibility, they’re certainly not happy with the current state of things.

With regards to the number of games played, the goal, of course, remains for everyone to play 56 games and it’s believed they feel they have a buffer of a week or so after the season that they can reschedule games if necessary.  What helps is that the playoffs are divisional so it’s not as if there is a crossover/Wild Card possibility as there typically is.  Teams in a division where everyone plays all of their games won’t be affected if another division doesn’t unless the league uses that buffer week and delays the start of the playoffs.  If they can’t get all of the games in, they could go by points percentage or even a play-in series in that buffer week.  We’re still more than three months out from the end of the season so this is a decision they hope they won’t need to make for a while.

The rumor of the Olympics being cancelled again for this summer has been debunked and all indications are that they’re going to try to hold them.  Of course, in this environment, things can change in a hurry.  In your scenario, I suppose that could buy them a bit more time to fill out the regular season if need be if teams need to get games in but otherwise, they’re going to stick with the plan.  The priority is getting 2021-22 underway at close to the usual start time and it already looks like a very quick offseason schedule.  Compressing that any further is going to result in some pushback so I don’t see the league wanting to go further in the summer even if they’re able to.

SpeakOfTheDevil: How could things have gotten so bad for the Devils who now have 14 players in COVID protocol? Does the league make adjustments to the protocol now? Who loses their job for this epic blunder?

We’re up to 16 now for New Jersey although they’ve had two come off in recent days.  We highlight it in each of our daily CPRA pieces but I’ll mention it here as well – someone’s presence on this list doesn’t necessarily mean they have the virus.  Of the 16 the Devils have, there’s a pretty good chance most don’t.  Instead, they’re a close contact of someone who does have it so erring on the side of caution, those players are also quarantining.  Optics-wise, it’s not pretty, but this probably isn’t costing anyone their job.  They knew this was a possibility when they decided to make the list available to the public.

From a protocol standpoint, we’ve seen some tweaks in recent days with regards to removing the glass behind the benches to create more of an open environment, further restrictions on in-person team meetings, and even arrival time in an attempt to limit in-arena player interactions though that last one didn’t go over well with the players.  Rapid tests in addition to the usual PCR ones are also under investigation.  More modifications are almost certain to come in the weeks and months ahead as more information is gathered.

mikedickinson: Mrazek out for a bit in Raleigh. Do they make a move or roll with Reimer and Ned in net? The team has been great this season and really think they can make a run.

I don’t think they’ll make a move for a few reasons.  One, things are going well and they could certainly stand to get a longer look at Alex Nedeljkovic to see if he could realistically be the number two option for next season with both Petr Mrazek and James Reimer set to hit unrestricted free agency next season.

The second reason is that Carolina’s system doesn’t exactly allow a lot of shots.  They’re 29th in the league in shots allowed per game at just 26.0 with Vegas and Boston allowing fewer.  The Hurricanes aren’t a team that really needs goaltenders to steal a lot of games of them; they just need adequate goaltending most nights.  Since joining them, Reimer has been capable of giving them that most of the time.

And even if they really could benefit from adding another netminder, there isn’t really anyone available that makes any sense for Carolina.  The waiver market the first three weeks has seen every goalie get plucked up to the point where more teams are just biting the bullet and carrying three on the active roster.  Knowing it’s that much harder to add that depth, the cost is going to be even more prohibitive.

Surgery went well for Mrazek and while there’s no timetable for his return, it certainly sounds like he’s expected back this season.  In the meantime, they’ll have to ride it out with what they’ve got.

met man: Who do you think will eventually wind up with DeAngelo and what type of return, if any will the Rangers get?

I know there was a report earlier this week suggesting something could be done sooner than later but I don’t see it happening.  It’s not that I don’t think there’s anyone interested – there clearly are – but in a normal year, finding a trade for someone with a $4.8MM price tag for multiple years is tricky.  This season, with half the league in LTIR already and others shuffling players back and forth to and from the taxi squad to stay compliant, there are so few realistic trade options out there.

The Rangers certainly don’t have much leverage to command much of a return but they have the right to be very picky.  As DeAngelo is just 24, a buyout on the final year would only be at a one-third rate, not the usual two-thirds.  If they went that route, his cap hit in 2021-22 would only be $383K and 2022-23 would be $883K.  Knowing that, GM Jeff Gorton probably isn’t going to have much interest in putting any significant amount of retention on DeAngelo’s contract to move him knowing the buyout is in his back pocket.  That will also limit their willingness to take a pricey contract back beyond this season to offset money.

When this all happened, Detroit was the team that came to my mind as a realistic trade candidate.  They have ample cap space and DeAngelo is young enough to conceivably become part of their core if everything went well.  And if it didn’t go well, the buyout cost isn’t that prohibitive.  They also have Marc Staal who was DeAngelo’s partner last season when he had a career year so reuniting the two could certainly make a lot of sense for them.  They have some expiring veteran contracts that could eliminate (or at least reduce) the request for New York to retain salary as well; someone like Darren Helm ($3.95MM) comes to mind.  Something like DeAngelo and a few hundred thousand of retention (up to or near what next season’s buyout cost would be) for Helm would at least give New York a roster forward in return which is a little better than having him sit out the rest of the year while waiting for a buyout and Detroit would get a possible short-term upgrade on the back end for a minimal cost.  If a trade happens, that’s the type of move I’d expect.

JDGoat: How do you see the Senators fixing their defence moving forward?. Everybody brought in this past offseason has failed miserably. Do they just have to wait and pray on Sanderson, Bernard-Docker, and the rest of their prospect pool or are there external options that make sense?

They’re off to the right start with Artem Zub starting to play now and Erik Brannstrom finally being recalled.  Are those players long-term fixtures?  Maybe, maybe not.  (They’re certainly hoping Brannstrom is given he was the centerpiece in the Mark Stone trade.)  But I can tell you that Braydon Coburn certainly isn’t in the long-term plans so there was no reason to have him in the lineup ahead of one of those two, especially in a year where they’re expected to go through some developmental growing pains.  They finally saw the writing on the wall when they waived him earlier this week.

I wouldn’t be surprised if GM Pierre Dorion has kicked the tires on more of an impact defender going back to the offseason with an eye on making a trade that’s similar to the Matt Murray one where they brought in a core piece while using some of their pick and prospect surplus although the fact nothing happened tells me they didn’t find the right match.  I expect that to continue to be explored – even if they stay in the North Division basement – as they’re not in a spot where they can be picky about when they can acquire that player.  If they can get a core defender in a trade, they need to do it even if they’re looking at high draft lottery odds.

The long-term plan is to have some of those younger prospects eventually graduate and form a back end with Thomas Chabot, Brannstrom, probably Nikita Zaitsev since he’s signed through 2023-24, and one external trade or free agent signing.  Between now and then, they’re probably just going to use this season to evaluate some of their ‘fringe’ options in players like Zub, Josh Brown, and Mike Reilly to see if any of them are worth keeping around to put with that planned group for a few years from now.

Mark L: What is the bigger surprise in Chicago – Kevin Lankinen or the Power Play?

I’m going to go with the power play.  Lankinen earning the number one job doesn’t surprise me and was something I suggested could happen a few months ago in a prior mailbag.  At this point of their careers, Malcolm Subban and Collin Delia have shown they’re not going to be NHL starters so in a season where they’re expected to be rebuilding, it should be Lankinen that gets that evaluation to see if he can be part of their long-term plans.  So far, so good on that front although I certainly don’t expect him to maintain a .928 SV% the rest of the way.  But even if he can hover around .910 or so, they’d be thrilled.

Meanwhile, their man advantage is running at a whopping 37.84% clip despite being without their top center in Jonathan Toews (of which no one knows when or if he’ll be back this season) plus two youngsters in Alexander Nylander and Kirby Dach.  They’ve thrown rookies like Pius Suter and Philipp Kurashev into the mix and haven’t missed a beat.  No team is going to maintain that level of success over a season but with who they’re throwing out there, I didn’t think they’d get off to that good of a start.  I thought Lankinen would play his way into the mix so for me, the bigger surprise is the power play.

@bk656: With the way the Canucks season has been going, (they are (6-7-0) at the time of writing), do the Canucks consider firing Jim Benning if this season ends up not being great?

It’s 6-8 now for Vancouver’s record after an ugly loss to Toronto on Thursday night.  I don’t like to speculate too much on who is and isn’t going to be fired when things aren’t going well but I’ll meet you partway and say that it’s fair to classify him as on the hot seat.

Yes, the Canucks’ salary cap situation helped lead to the exodus of talent this offseason with Jacob Markstrom, Chris Tanev, and Tyler Toffoli being among those who left.  But Benning was the architect of that problem when he brought in overpaid checkers like Brandon Sutter, Antoine Roussel, or Jay Beagle who either signed or already had overpriced contracts.  They didn’t make sense at the time and are hurting them more now.  Loui Eriksson and Tyler Myers at least had the potential to be impact players but both of those contracts haven’t aged well either.  One less of those deals is probably enough to keep one of Tanev or Toffoli around at the very least and that would certainly have made a difference early on.

If owner Francesco Aquilini has an inkling about making a move, the timing would be right.  Elias Pettersson and Quinn Hughes are both in line for franchise-defining contracts this offseason and the person handing those out shouldn’t be on thin ice, so to speak.  If Benning gets the green light to do those deals in-season as extensions, it should come with a vote of confidence about his future. If that doesn’t happen and things don’t go well for Vancouver this season though, Benning’s name is certainly going to be speculated as a possible casualty.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.