Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.
PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2020-21 season. This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.
Minnesota Wild
Current Cap Hit: $78,799,421 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)
Entry-Level Contracts
F Kirill Kaprizov (one year, $925K)
Potential Bonuses
Kaprizov: $925K
After years of trying to get him to North America, Minnesota was finally successful in convincing Kaprizov to do so although they had to burn one of his two cheap entry-level years last season when he wasn’t eligible to play to get him to sign. Given his success in the KHL, he should jump into an impact role right away and if he’s able to produce as they expect he can, he should hit his bonuses without much trouble and position himself for a big-money deal next offseason.
One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level
F Nick Bjugstad ($2.05MM, UFA)*
F Nick Bonino ($4.1MM, UFA)
F Joel Eriksson Ek ($1.488MM, RFA)
F Kevin Fiala ($3MM, RFA)
F Marcus Foligno ($2.875MM, UFA)
F Ryan Hartman ($1.9MM, RFA)
D Brad Hunt ($700K, UFA)
F Marcus Johansson ($4.5MM, UFA)
D Greg Pateryn ($2.25MM, UFA)
*-Pittsburgh retained $2.05MM on Bjugstad’s deal in a trade this offseason.
Among the restricted free agent forwards, Fiala’s deal is the most pressing one. After struggling following his trade from Nashville, his first full season went much better while he led the team in scoring. If he’s able to pick up where he left off and show that he’s a capable front-line player, he’ll be well-positioned to at least double his current AAV. Hartman came to Minnesota by way of a non-tender as Nashville opted to avoid arbitration back when his price tag wasn’t half of this. Unless he can improve his offensive numbers and move into a more prominent role, another non-tender is certainly on the table, especially with bottom-six forwards feeling the squeeze more than usual in the current cap environment. Eriksson Ek had a career year offensively last season and could push for more top-six minutes this season. Unless his offensive production really spikes, he shouldn’t be able to command a huge raise but he could still double his current price tag.
As for the UFA forwards, it’s largely a collection of role players. Johansson may get an opportunity to play down the middle which would certainly help his cause in free agency but he didn’t have a huge market last time around and he’s coming off a tough year. It’d be surprising if he came close to $4.5MM on his next deal. Bonino was brought in from Nashville this offseason in a draft-day trade and with their lack of depth down the middle, he’ll get a bigger role than he would have had with the Predators. Having said that, even if he gets top-six minutes, he is more of a third liner at this stage of his career. Those centers can still carry some value but he’ll be facing a small dip at the very least. Bjugstad was a cap dump from Pittsburgh after an injury-riddled campaign and he should have an opportunity to restore some value. But even if he has a big season, it’d be hard to imagine that he’d get close to his $4.1MM combined current cost because of the injuries. Foligno is a popular player who plays an energy role but those players didn’t fare well in free agency last year and with the cap not expected to rise, they won’t do well next offseason so a decrease in salary for him seems like a near-certainty.
Pateryn’s time with the Wild hasn’t gone well. He was actively shopped last summer and then missed 44 games this season due to core muscle surgery and then had back surgery back in June. He’s likely going to battle for number six minutes on the back end and players in that role should be closer to half of his price tag. If he can stay healthy, that’s about what he’d be able to command next summer. Hunt isn’t the strongest in his own end but he is a threat with his point shot as well which has allowed him to hang around the last few years on minimum contracts. He played more of a regular role last season and if he can stay in that sixth spot this season, he could push for a bit more of a raise than the pending jump in the league minimum.
Two Years Remaining
F Jordan Greenway ($2.1MM, RFA)
G Kaapo Kahkonen ($725K, RFA)
F Victor Rask ($4MM, UFA)
G Alex Stalock ($785K, UFA)
F Nico Sturm ($725K, UFA)
Rask’s acquisition by then-GM Paul Fenton was a headscratcher and not much has changed in that regard as Rask has struggled mightily with his new team, spending a lot of time as a healthy scratch. In the right situation, he could still play but that’s with a cap hit of under $1MM, not $4MM. Greenway has put up decent numbers the last two seasons despite not seeking a lot of top-six minutes. He should get that opportunity during this deal which will dictate whether he’s a core piece that should get a long-term deal or someone who goes short term again. Sturm, an undrafted college free agent signing, is an option for the fourth line or taxi squad but will need to establish himself as a regular to have a chance to earn more on his next contract.
Stalock received his deal to give him some stability and Minnesota someone to expose in expansion. However, it’s proving to be quite the bargain after he vastly outperformed Devan Dubnyk last season. If he can repeat that performance moving forward, he could easily double that price tag. Unfortunately for him and Minnesota, he’s out indefinitely with an upper-body injury which means Kahkonen could break camp with the Wild. He’s their goalie of the future – it’s no coincidence that his contract expires at the same time as Stalock’s – but a one-year deal two summers from now is most likely as he won’t have the NHL track record to justify a long-term contract.
Three Years Remaining
D Mathew Dumba ($6MM, UFA)
D Carson Soucy ($2.75MM, UFA)
G Cam Talbot ($3.67MM, UFA)
Dumba has long been the subject of trade speculation and that isn’t likely to change anytime soon, especially with expansion looming and three other blueliners on long-term deals carrying no-move clauses. Although he’s coming off a quiet year offensively compared to his previous few seasons, he’s still a right-shot defender that’s capable of logging heavy minutes. Those players still carry a lot of value and impact defensemen still got paid this offseason despite the cap constraints. Dumba will be 29 when he hits unrestricted free agency and if his production rebounds over the next few years, he should be able to command close to a max-term contract with a bit of a raise.
Soucy is one of the rare players that was able to get a sizable contract despite a limited track record this offseason. He was a regular for most of the year but still qualified for Group VI free agency, allowing him to hit the open market early and GM Bill Guerin paid a pretty penny given his role. Clearly, they think he can get to another level by the time the contract is up.
Talbot had a nice rebound season with Calgary which allowed him to fare much better in free agency this time around than a year ago. He enters as the undisputed starter for now but could very well be splitting time with Kakhonen by the end. He’ll also be over 35 for his next contract so Talbot will likely have to go year-to-year from here.
Four Or More Years Remaining
D Jonas Brodin ($4.167MM in 2020-21, $6MM from 2021-22 through 2027-28)
F Zach Parise ($7.538MM through 2024-25)
D Jared Spurgeon ($7.575MM through 2026-27)
D Ryan Suter ($7.538MM through 2024-25)
F Mats Zuccarello ($6MM through 2023-24)
Parise’s contract hasn’t held up particularly well over time but at the same time, he has led the Wild in goals in each of the last two seasons. As he gets older, the last couple of years could sting but for now, he’s overpaid but is still producing at a top-six level. Zuccarello didn’t have a great first season in Minnesota and his ice time dropped sharply by nearly four minutes a night as well. There should be a path to more playing time now but they will need more from him to avoid the potential of this being a negative-value deal.
Spurgeon has come a long way over the years and has gone from a player deemed unworthy of a contract by the Islanders (who drafted him in 2008) to a largely unheralded top-pairing player with the Wild. He isn’t under the radar as much now thanks to this contract which begins this season but he will be a fixture on their back end for years to come. Suter’s identical deal to Parise has held up better over time; while he isn’t able to log 28 or more minutes a night like he was a few years ago, he’s still a quality top-pairing player. Brodin has never been a big point producer but he has been a quality shutdown defender which helped earn him his big extension back in September. While they won’t get a lot of production for that price tag, they certainly were comfortable with that going into the deal. Perhaps most notable about the extension is that it came with a no-move clause that kicks in right away, meaning that all three of these defensemen are automatic protectees in expansion.
Buyouts
None
Retained Salary Transactions
G Devan Dubnyk ($2.167MM in 2020-21)
Still To Sign
None
Best Value: Fiala
Worst Value: Rask
Looking Ahead
Minnesota is in the midst of reshaping their roster and while a lot of teams don’t have flexibility, they certainly do. They have nearly $3MM in cap room for the upcoming season which is more than most and should allow them to easily afford to add someone if they get off to a good start or to retain and/or absorb a contract coming back if they have to sell.
The 2021 offseason is shaping up to be an interesting one for them. With over $24MM coming off the books, Guerin has a real opportunity to remake his roster in a hurry without giving them any long-term cap constraints either. Yes, Fiala will take up a fair-sized chunk of that money but there will still be more than enough left over to make an addition or two of note. There are a lot of players that need to be signed to fill out the roster but the Wild could be a team to watch for next summer on the free agent or trade market.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.