Salary Cap Deep Dive: Washington Capitals

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2020-21 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Washington Capitals

Current Cap Hit: $82,524,877 (over the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

G Ilya Samsonov (one year, $925K)

Potential Bonuses
Samsonov: $600K

Samsonov lived up to the hype relatively well in his rookie season although injuries and the early shutdown limited him to 26 games and he was unable to participate in the playoffs.  A lot will be riding on him for the upcoming season where he stands as the likely starter despite the inexperience.  With 2020-21 being another shortened year, he probably won’t have a long enough track record to command a long-term contract and given Washington’s salary cap situation anyway, a two-or-three-year second deal may be better for both sides.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

G Henrik Lundqvist ($1.5MM, UFA)
F Alex Ovechkin ($9.538MM, UFA)
D Jonas Siegenthaler ($800K, UFA)
D Trevor van Riemsdyk ($800K, UFA)
F Jakub Vrana ($3.35MM, RFA)

Ovechkin’s situation is well-known at this point.  He isn’t hiding the fact that he intends to stay with Washington and basically, the only questions are for how many years and how much?  His next deal will have a 35-plus classification but that shouldn’t be much concern.  While there is an expectation that his production will eventually decline, he still should be able to command a similar price tag to what he’s making now.  Vrana continues to improve each season and has firmly established himself as a top-six fixture.  He will have two RFA-eligible years remaining after 2020-21 and with his bridge deal expiring, he’ll be looking for a long-term pact.  In a normal market, something in the $6MM range would make sense and there are enough comparables to make that case in arbitration.

Siegenthaler played a limited role last season but figures to be a part of their longer-term plans.  However, he’ll still be line for third-pairing minutes so while he’ll be arbitration-eligible next offseason (something that wasn’t the case this time around), he still is only going to be able to command a small raise.  As for van Riemsdyk, he’s looking to restore some value after taking a $1.7MM pay cut from his 2019-20 salary.  If he can lock down a regular spot, this could be a nice situation for him to earn closer to double that amount next offseason.

As for Lundqvist, he was signed to be a veteran mentor to Samsonov but that is off the table now following today’s news that he will miss all of 2020-21 due to a heart condition.  He will be eligible to be placed on LTIR as a result but with his low base salary, they won’t have much extra flexibility left by the time they replace him on the roster.

Two Years Remaining

G Pheonix Copley ($1.1MM, UFA)
F Nic Dowd ($750K, UFA)
D Michal Kempny ($2.5MM, UFA)
D Justin Schultz ($4MM, UFA)
G Vitek Vanecek ($717K, RFA)

Dowd saw his output dip slightly last season but for a player making close to the league minimum, expectations weren’t particularly high anyway.  He’s a serviceable fourth center in a roster spot that will need to be kept at that minimum price point for the foreseeable future.

Kempny had emerged as a capable top-four option on the back end but it’s unlikely he’ll play this season after suffering a torn Achilles tendon while training in the days leading up to free agency.  That injury carries a six-to-eight-month recovery timeline which means a lot will be riding on his 2021-22 performance to show that he can still play in that role and be worth a raise that offseason.  His absence helped opened up a spot for Schultz who still landed a strong contract despite a tough season with Pittsburgh.  Clearly, the expectation is that he will be able to get back to his previous offensive levels.  If that doesn’t happen, he won’t be able to command this deal next time around.

Copley and Vanecek will now battle for the number two job behind Samsonov.  The former has limited NHL experience as a backup in Washington and will carry a $25K cap hit if demoted to the AHL.  Vanecek, meanwhile, was Braden Holtby’s backup in the bubble with Samsonov out and may be the early favorite for the role.  Unless one gets into a platoon situation, neither will be able to command top backup money, especially if Samsonov winds up on a bridge deal of his own.

Three Years Remaining

F Lars Eller ($3.5MM, UFA)
F Carl Hagelin ($2.75MM, UFA)
F Garnet Hathaway ($1.5MM, UFA)
D Nick Jensen ($2.5MM, UFA)
D Dmitry Orlov ($5.1MM, UFA)
F Richard Panik ($2.75MM, UFA)

Eller has fit in quite well as Washington’s third center, one that can play up the lineup when need be.  While bottom-six players could see their earnings upside limited due to the pandemic, this should still hold up as a decent value contract in the current marketplace.  Hagelin isn’t able to put up consistent secondary production at this point of his career so while he’s an effective penalty killer and a speedster still, it’s a bit of an expensive deal for his role.  Panik logged just 11 minutes a game last season as he didn’t fit in as well as anyone would have hoped in his first season with the Caps and it’s a deal that they’d probably like to get out of.  Hathaway is a pure fourth liner most nights and this contract is an overpayment as well for someone in that role, though not as significant of one as Panik who was often his linemate down the stretch.

At one point, it looked like Orlov’s offensive production was going to find another level and that, coupled with his all-around play, would make his deal a major bargain.  However, his goal total has dipped from ten goals in 2017-18 to just three and four over the past two years.  But having said that, he’s still a big part of their back end and while the contract may not be the big bargain they had hoped for, they’ve still had a good return on it.  That can’t be said for Jensen though.  His extension that he signed upon being acquired hasn’t panned out well and is a contract they would certainly like to get out of, especially with a capable replacement in van Riemsdyk making a third of that amount.  But with so many teams against the cap ceiling, moving him will be easier said than done.

Four Years Remaining

D Brenden Dillon ($3.9MM, UFA)
F Tom Wilson ($5.166MM, UFA)

Wilson’s contract was certainly notable at the time he signed it in 2018 when he had more than seven goals for the first time in his career.  Since then, he has certainly improved offensively and has solidified a top-six spot which has helped give them a pretty good return on the deal.  Nevertheless, this is still a contract that is viewed as a market-setter and it almost certainly came into play for Josh Anderson’s eventual seven-year deal with a $5.5MM AAV that he signed with Montreal after failing to come to terms on a similar pact with Columbus.  There aren’t many players like Wilson in the league and anyone that does bring a similar level of physicality with some offensive punch will certainly be pointing to this contract as a comparable in negotiations in the years to come.

Dillon was brought in at the trade deadline from San Jose and fit in nicely as he logged just over 20 minutes a night.  Kempny’s absence heightened Washington’s need to re-sign Dillon and he turned that into a fairly sizable contract for someone that doesn’t bring a lot of offensive upside to the table.

Five Or More Years Remaining

D John Carlson ($8MM through 2025-26)
F Nicklas Backstrom ($9.2MM through 2024-25)
F Evgeny Kuznetsov ($7.8MM through 2024-25)
F T.J. Oshie ($5.75MM through 2024-25)

There are enough core players to discuss here to deviate slightly from our usual format.  Backstrom represented himself in contract talks last season and landed himself a pretty good raise despite being a player that isn’t a top scoring threat as centers go.  With the pandemic hitting two weeks later, it’s certainly fair to wonder if he’d have been able to get that contract on the open market had he waited to sign.  I’m not sure he would have and as a result, a contract that seemed a little pricey when it was announced looks like a bit more of an overpayment now especially with it running through his age-38 season.  Kuznetsov is coming off a quiet season offensively while his playing time dipped a bit as well.  He’s an above-average second center and is basically making low-end number one money so while his contract certainly isn’t a bargain, it’s reasonable market value.  Oshie has been quite steady offensively since joining Washington, ranging from 47 to 56 points in each of his five years with the team.  That type of production is a decent return on his AAV but this deal also takes him to his age-38 campaign.  It’s hard to see him still at that level at that time.

Carlson has really emerged over the last three years as one of the most dominant offensive defensemen in the league while still being a quality defender in his own end.  As a result, he finished second in Norris Trophy voting last season and he could certainly wind up winning one over the next few years.  With other number one blueliners making as much as $3.5MM more, this has turned into a below-market contract fairly quickly.

Buyouts

None

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

None

Best Value: Vrana
Worst Value: Panik

Looking Ahead

Even with some LTIR cushion from Kempny and Lundqvist, GM Brian MacLellan won’t have much wiggle room this season by the time those roster spots are filled and another low-priced forward or two are added to the roster.  Don’t expect much from them on the trade front as a result.

Next offseason projects to be a tough one to navigate with Ovechkin needing another high-priced deal while Vrana and Samsonov will be in line for decent-sized raises of their own.  That’s when the mid-tier overpayments to players like Panik, Hagelin, and Jensen will really start to hurt.  The new deals for their core players will take away most of their future flexibility as well although the Upper Limit should gradually start to increase by then as well.  Get used to Washington being right near the cap ceiling though as that shouldn’t be changing anytime soon.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.