Salary Cap Deep Dive: Pittsburgh Penguins

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2020-21 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Pittsburgh Penguins

Current Cap Hit: $80,181,842 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

D John Marino (one year, $925K)

Potential Bonuses
Marino: $850K

Marino’s rookie season was a strong one as he quickly worked his way into a spot in Pittsburgh’s top four, logging over 20 minutes a game while finishing second in team scoring among defensemen.  If he even simply repeats that performance, he could easily double his base salary next offseason and if he takes a step forward, this deal could get pricey in a hurry.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Zach Aston-Reese ($1MM, RFA)
F Teddy Blueger ($750K, RFA)
D Cody Ceci ($1.25MMMM, UFA)
F Mark Jankowski ($700K, RFA)
F Evan Rodrigues ($700K, UFA)
F Colton Sceviour ($1.2MM, UFA)

Sceviour was the secondary part of the trade that sent Patric Hornqvist to Florida this offseason.  His output has dipped in recent years and while he’s an effective enough player to earn another deal beyond this one, he may have to take a small dip as the depth players get squeezed more and more in this cap environment.  Aston-Reese had a quiet year despite an uptick in ice time.  His role could be lessened this season and if that happens, his arbitration eligibility could wind up working against him if he doesn’t sign early.  Blueger’s first full NHL season was a good one and he played his way into a role beyond the fourth line fairly quickly.  Unless his offensive game improves significantly, he won’t be in a position to land a big raise but he could come close to doubling his current rate.  Jankowski and Rodrigues both were non-tendered by Calgary and Toronto respectively and will look to rebuild some value after having limited interest on the open market.  Both have earned bigger deals in the past but will need to find that form again if they want to get anything beyond a minimum contract or close to it a year from now.

Ceci is coming off of a tough season with Toronto which saw him take more than a $3MM pay cut.  Expectations will be lower here and he’ll be in a role that’s a better fit for him.  It wouldn’t be surprising to see him earn a bit of a raise on his next contract but it won’t come close to what he has made in recent years with AAV’s over $4MM.

Two Years Remaining

G Casey DeSmith ($1.25MM, UFA)
F Kasperi Kapanen ($3.2MM, RFA)
F Sam Lafferty ($750K, UFA)
D Kris Letang ($7.25MM, UFA)
F Evgeni Malkin ($9.5MM, UFA)
F Jared McCann ($2.94MM, RFA)
D Juuso Riikola ($1.15MM, UFA)
F Bryan Rust ($3.5MM, UFA)

Malkin’s name is certainly the headliner among the forwards in this group.  He has shown himself to be capable of being a number one center but hasn’t had the opportunity to play in that role very often for obvious reasons.  If he wanted to go somewhere where he could have that role, he could probably get a multi-year deal close to his current rate, even with the 35-plus designation which carries some extra risks for teams.  However, if he wants to remain with the Penguins (and at this point, that seems like a relatively safe bet), they will almost certainly ask him to take at least a small dip in pay in an effort to try to keep as much of their core together as possible.

GM Jim Rutherford paid a fairly steep price to bring Kapanen back into the fold and the early indication is that he will have a much bigger role than he did with Toronto.  If he succeeds in that spot, he could push for a $5MM or more contract, especially being a year away from UFA eligibility at that time.  Rust very quietly had a career year last season.  After hovering around the 30-point mark the previous three seasons, he averaged more than a point per game and finished second on the team in scoring behind Malkin.  If he reverts back to being the secondary scorer he had been, he’ll be in tough to match his current rate but if his 2019-20 production was a sign of things to come, then he’ll be adding a couple of million per season.  McCann wound up being scratched at one point in the postseason which gives you an idea of how his year ended.  If they wind up keeping Malkin around, his $3.38MM qualifying offer might be too rich for Pittsburgh.  Lafferty figures to play a limited role and they’ll be looking to keep that roster spot close to the league minimum down the road.

Letang has been a fixture on their back end for 13 seasons and can still put up the points at a high-end rate.  However, staying healthy has been an issue and he’ll also carry the 35-plus designation on his next deal.  As a result, it’s hard to see him coming in higher than this rate on his next contract.  If injuries are an issue between now and then, he’s a candidate to go year-to-year with bonuses but a multi-year pact at a slightly lower cap hit could also be appealing.  Rikkola has been a depth option the last couple of years (even spending some time on the wing) and if he stays in that role for the next two, he won’t be in a spot to command a raise.

DeSmith was supposed to be the backup last season but plans changed quickly and instead he spent the year in the minors.  With Matt Murray now gone, he’ll return to the number two role.  As we’ve seen with backups in recent years, those that are above average can still land a pretty good contract and that will certainly be his target if he gets the opportunity to play more than a handful of games here and there.

Three Years Remaining

D Brian Dumoulin ($4.1MM, UFA)
G Tristan Jarry ($3.5MM, UFA)
F Jason Zucker ($5.5MM, UFA)

Zucker was brought in to add another scoring weapon on the wing although the pandemic and quick exit in the bubble means he hasn’t had much of a chance to establish himself.  He did well in limited action and will need to be around the 25-30-goal mark to have a shot at a raise on his next deal.

Dumoulin has never been a big point-producer but has been a key anchor in the defensive end.  However, the willingness to pay a high price for that type of player isn’t as high now in this environment so while he’s undoubtedly a big part of their back end, it’s hard to see him getting any significant boost on his next contract.

Jarry went from being available in a trade last year to their sure-fire starter this season after a strong 2019-20 campaign.  He’s still inexperienced which is why they basically opted for a second bridge deal and by the time this contract is up, they’ll know if he’s their goalie of the long-term future that will earn a somewhat substantial raise closer to the $6MM mark or so or if he’s better off in a lesser (and lower-priced) spot.

Four Or More Years Remaining

F Sidney Crosby ($8.7MM through 2024-25)
F Jake Guentzel ($6MM through 2023-24)
D Mike Matheson ($4.875MM through 2025-26)
D Marcus Pettersson ($4.025MM through 2023-24)
F Brandon Tanev ($3.5MM through 2024-25)

Obviously, Crosby has been the top center ahead of Malkin all of these years and that’s unlikely to change barring injury.  He still has given them a strong return on this price tag, especially as the cap cost of a top pivot continues to go up.  He will be entering his age-38 year if he signs another contract and by then, he may be better suited for a more limited role with a lower cost.  Guentzel has put up more than a point per game since signing his deal midway through the 2018-19 season and while lots can change for wingers in four years, he’ll be well-positioned to earn a sizable raise if he continues to produce at that level.  The term of Tanev’s deal was one of the surprises of the 2019 offseason but he had a decent first year with them.  The price tag is a little high on this one but for a team that doesn’t have a lot of grit up front, it’s understandable why they paid a bit of a premium for him.

Matheson was the key player in the Hornqvist trade with Florida and will be looking to rebuild his value.  It was only a couple of years ago that this contract looked like it had the possibility to be a team-friendly one before things went off the rails.  He’ll be given a chance to ease into things and if he can even become a reliable top-four option, they’ll be happy.  But if that doesn’t happen, this contract – their longest one on the books – could become a tough one to move.  Pettersson didn’t take much time to become a top-four blueliner and while he may be like Dumoulin in that he won’t put up a lot of points, he’s strong enough in his own end that this contract should hold up well.

Buyouts

D Jack Johnson ($1.167MM in 20-21/21-22, $1.917MM in 22-23, $917K from 23-24 through 25-26)

Retained Salary Transactions

F Nick Bjugstad ($2.05MM in 2020-21)

Still To Sign

None

Best Value: Guentzel
Worst Value: Pettersson

Looking Ahead

With so many teams less than $1MM under the cap (or over it), Pittsburgh actually finds themselves in a pretty good cap situation for the upcoming season with a bit of wiggle room to work with.  If they stay relatively injury-free, they should be able to bank enough space to try to make a splash at the trade deadline.  We know that Rutherford loves to take big swings and if they’re one of a few buyers with ample cap room at that time, he’ll have a good shot at adding a player of note.

While Pittsburgh is always going to be up near the Upper Limit, they may not have as hard of a time staying in cap compliance in the coming years.  The 2021-22 offseason represents an opportunity to restructure their situation a bit and as an older team, there aren’t many players who stand out as cases for significant raises on their next contracts.  If anything, quite a few veterans may be looking at drops in pay.  That should give the Penguins a chance to reshape their core without having to make any more notable cuts to it.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.